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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cold/dry then warm/wet through 1/4. Hopefully the 96/11 type pattern that is expected 1/5 onward verifies and produces. 
 

I’m just not all in like the APATT peeps are…not yet. 

all in?  lol no way, and notice the "epicosity" hype of past days has diminished quite a bit too.  It's foolish and does no one any good, especially when talking about the weaklies.  You can have the big pretty blue blob on ensembles but it ends up being a chit mess cutoff that doesn't do much beside perhaps add to the resort stakes

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every one of the waves the gfs progresses through flow that is being impelled by blocking to slow down ..( eh hem ), is preceded by +pp n-ne of maine, yet the gfs takes cyclone after middling cyclone right through it -

these gfs runs as of late have sooo many issue with them, from the super synoptic continuity breakdown as of late, to these nuanced idiocy discrete aspects like above... 

not saying the euro products are better per se, but i still suggest the eps mean - which has actually improved during the day - for the 2nd(ish) is our next more significant system. 

image.png.0622b374d848f066b62e33c7a789d62f.png

it may also be led in short duration by some sort of a disturbance prior to the slow down around the 31.

this does not speak to ptype. 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can start seeing the reinforcement of WC troughing in the op but with a good atlantic, it will work. If that does not cooperate like shown on the gfs/gefs then it’s more hostile. 

image.thumb.png.63bd39f26128324ae99eb1701ec8f7a5.png
 

 

As modeled things look good.  Can it go to crap-sure.  We’ve seen the rug pull many times in recent years but is the euro family showing one of its known biases with the lower heights in the SW?  Maybe yes or maybe no.  A good Atlantic as you say somewhat neutralizes the risk but we’d all prefer a good pacific and hopefully we’ll get it.

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50 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As modeled things look good.  Can it go to crap-sure.  We’ve seen the rug pull many times in recent years but is the euro family showing one of its known biases with the lower heights in the SW?  Maybe yes or maybe no.  A good Atlantic as you say somewhat neutralizes the risk but we’d all prefer a good pacific and hopefully we’ll get it.

Maybe so, maybe no, we just don’t know. Hope for the best, expect less.

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Never understood people who love to live near the ocean complain about rain snow lines in their hood. You certainly love summer with the sea breeze and being near the water, winter you pay the price of that same wind off the water 99% of the time, until after the new year. Dec coast averages are a third of 25 miles inland. If snow rules more than the beach in your head,move inland. I lived behind the rain snow line for 45 years, it sucked but come July ahhh. Now living inland, summers sea breezes are occasional rather than every day, but I also tripled my snow average. Bottom line

Deal with it,

Cosgrove 

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