Jester January

[andyhb]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

If you look at the broad troughs in the picture you’ll count 3 of them on the NHEM view of gefs and eps.  4-5 wave patterns tend to occur more frequently I think.

Oh it’s a hemispheric thing, makes sense. I imagine 3-wave patterns are higher amplitude because the same amount of energy must disperse across fewer total fluctuations, therefore each fluctuation is greater in magnitude. Can any met verify this line of thinking?

[Prismshine Productions]

Oh it’s a hemispheric thing, makes sense. I imagine 3-wave patterns are higher amplitude because the same amount of energy must disperse across fewer total fluctuations, therefore each fluctuation is greater in magnitude. Can any met verify this line of thinking?

Same principal as mesovorts in strong hurricanes , fewer mesos=stronger storm

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[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

 

39 minutes ago, andyhb said:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Easy now with jan96 and jan11 redux. Both euro and gfs show signs this could fail quickly. Troughs digging into Cabo…hope ens aren’t head faking us at h5.

[qg_omega]

January looking bleak 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

January looking bleak 

Bleak?

[Prismshine Productions]

Bleak?

0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites)

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[mahk_webstah]

Well you have to acknowledge that just about every good 15 day multi model look has gone to crap for more than a year, so why wouldn’t this one?

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites)

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I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Easy now with jan96 and jan11 redux. Both euro and gfs show signs this could fail quickly. Troughs digging into Cabo…hope ens aren’t head faking us at h5.

I just referenced the comparison between the two charts. Not a forecast.

[wokeupthisam]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

January looking bleak 

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Bleak?

Depends on the scale being used?

[Prismshine Productions]

I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. 

Here's hoping we don't have a shortened snow season

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[WinterWolf]

The trolls and the “TIT’s”(Trolls In Training) are quick to pounce on any sign of failure…grasping at OP runs 10 and 12 days out.  Wretched creatures they are. 

[CoastalWx]

I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently.

There’s always a chance…most level headed folks here know things are never iron clad.  

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently.

this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS has an overrunning type setup for the 4-5th btw. potent SS vort running into confluence. this is probably the first shot at snow for most in this pattern

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao

Even so, I don’t know how you can claim the whole month shaky if it rains on January 4.

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Even so, I don’t know how you can claim the whole month shaky if it rains on January 4.

You can’t…but that’s the Troll(TIT) mentality.  That’s disingenuous shit.  

[CoastalWx]

Although I’m anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog for Jacksonville FL if the euro is right while he’s bare.

[mahk_webstah]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. 

Shaky for you can be very good up here

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Although I’m anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog for Jacksonville FL if the euro is right while he’s bare.

This is why I don't mind seeing the GFS suite back off a bit...I'll take my chances at this latitude in January....even January 2023, with that trough down to baja...I had an active month with near normal snowfall. Last January, despite that absolute bloodbath...managed one of the best events of my life on 1/7. My largest worry at peak climo is precip, not cold.

Last thing I want is seeing pictures of Steve's dogs digging tunnels and wolfie and Jerry telling me what a great season I'm having as I stare at cracked earth.

Fu9k that-

[CoastalWx]

59 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Shaky for you can be very good up here

You could shake too

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just slam that STJ jet into seasonable cold with the arctic tundra dropping west into west-central CONUS.....I'll take that over hoping an H5 low closing over Norfolk can crawl up here before rigormortis sets in, or seeing the main show shield hit Will to Jerry and slide east.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites)

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Well... they'll spit out a million different solutions between now and then. Can't get hung up on one run of the OP

[Modfan2]

If there is any hint of January ratting and being warm Forky will be here posting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

If there is any hint of January ratting and being warm Forky will be here posting.

Pretty sure it isn't goint to torch, but I could see January 1996 turning into January 2022.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

The trolls and the “TIT’s”(Trolls In Training) are quick to pounce on any sign of failure…grasping at OP runs 10 and 12 days out.  Wretched creatures they are. 

Can't the same be said for those who pounce on any sign of "success"??....as in the"pattern looks great in 10-14 days"

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Can't the same be said for those who pounce on any sign of "success"??....as in the"pattern looks great in 10-14 days"

It’s not WRONG to say that, but when they go and see yesterday’s 12z Euro and are saying it’ll be a historic January, then they become TITs.