andyhb Posted Monday at 02:16 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:16 AM 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 AM 1 hour ago, weathafella said: If you look at the broad troughs in the picture you’ll count 3 of them on the NHEM view of gefs and eps. 4-5 wave patterns tend to occur more frequently I think. Oh it’s a hemispheric thing, makes sense. I imagine 3-wave patterns are higher amplitude because the same amount of energy must disperse across fewer total fluctuations, therefore each fluctuation is greater in magnitude. Can any met verify this line of thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 02:29 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:29 AM Oh it’s a hemispheric thing, makes sense. I imagine 3-wave patterns are higher amplitude because the same amount of energy must disperse across fewer total fluctuations, therefore each fluctuation is greater in magnitude. Can any met verify this line of thinking?Same principal as mesovorts in strong hurricanes , fewer mesos=stronger storm Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:56 AM 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 39 minutes ago, andyhb said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Monday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:07 PM Easy now with jan96 and jan11 redux. Both euro and gfs show signs this could fail quickly. Troughs digging into Cabo…hope ens aren’t head faking us at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Monday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:14 PM January looking bleak 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:32 PM 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: January looking bleak Bleak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 12:33 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:33 PM Bleak?0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Monday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:47 PM Well you have to acknowledge that just about every good 15 day multi model look has gone to crap for more than a year, so why wouldn’t this one? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:50 PM 16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: 0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:54 PM 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Easy now with jan96 and jan11 redux. Both euro and gfs show signs this could fail quickly. Troughs digging into Cabo…hope ens aren’t head faking us at h5. I just referenced the comparison between the two charts. Not a forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted Monday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:56 PM 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: January looking bleak 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bleak? Depends on the scale being used? 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 12:57 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:57 PM I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. Here's hoping we don't have a shortened snow seasonSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 12:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:59 PM The trolls and the “TIT’s”(Trolls In Training) are quick to pounce on any sign of failure…grasping at OP runs 10 and 12 days out. Wretched creatures they are. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:01 PM I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently. There’s always a chance…most level headed folks here know things are never iron clad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 01:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:06 PM 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently. this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:07 PM GEFS has an overrunning type setup for the 4-5th btw. potent SS vort running into confluence. this is probably the first shot at snow for most in this pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:07 PM 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao Even so, I don’t know how you can claim the whole month shaky if it rains on January 4. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:10 PM 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Even so, I don’t know how you can claim the whole month shaky if it rains on January 4. You can’t…but that’s the Troll(TIT) mentality. That’s disingenuous shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:16 PM Although I’m anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog for Jacksonville FL if the euro is right while he’s bare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Monday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:35 PM 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. Shaky for you can be very good up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 02:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:17 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Although I’m anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog for Jacksonville FL if the euro is right while he’s bare. This is why I don't mind seeing the GFS suite back off a bit...I'll take my chances at this latitude in January....even January 2023, with that trough down to baja...I had an active month with near normal snowfall. Last January, despite that absolute bloodbath...managed one of the best events of my life on 1/7. My largest worry at peak climo is precip, not cold. Last thing I want is seeing pictures of Steve's dogs digging tunnels and wolfie and Jerry telling me what a great season I'm having as I stare at cracked earth. Fu9k that- 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 PM 59 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Shaky for you can be very good up here You could shake too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:39 PM Just slam that STJ jet into seasonable cold with the arctic tundra dropping west into west-central CONUS.....I'll take that over hoping an H5 low closing over Norfolk can crawl up here before rigormortis sets in, or seeing the main show shield hit Will to Jerry and slide east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Monday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:25 PM 2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: 0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Well... they'll spit out a million different solutions between now and then. Can't get hung up on one run of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Monday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:30 PM If there is any hint of January ratting and being warm Forky will be here posting. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:39 PM 9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: If there is any hint of January ratting and being warm Forky will be here posting. Pretty sure it isn't goint to torch, but I could see January 1996 turning into January 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: The trolls and the “TIT’s”(Trolls In Training) are quick to pounce on any sign of failure…grasping at OP runs 10 and 12 days out. Wretched creatures they are. Can't the same be said for those who pounce on any sign of "success"??....as in the"pattern looks great in 10-14 days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Monday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:25 PM 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Can't the same be said for those who pounce on any sign of "success"??....as in the"pattern looks great in 10-14 days" It’s not WRONG to say that, but when they go and see yesterday’s 12z Euro and are saying it’ll be a historic January, then they become TITs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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