andyhb Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 hour ago, weathafella said: If you look at the broad troughs in the picture you’ll count 3 of them on the NHEM view of gefs and eps. 4-5 wave patterns tend to occur more frequently I think. Oh it’s a hemispheric thing, makes sense. I imagine 3-wave patterns are higher amplitude because the same amount of energy must disperse across fewer total fluctuations, therefore each fluctuation is greater in magnitude. Can any met verify this line of thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago Oh it’s a hemispheric thing, makes sense. I imagine 3-wave patterns are higher amplitude because the same amount of energy must disperse across fewer total fluctuations, therefore each fluctuation is greater in magnitude. Can any met verify this line of thinking?Same principal as mesovorts in strong hurricanes , fewer mesos=stronger storm Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 39 minutes ago, andyhb said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Easy now with jan96 and jan11 redux. Both euro and gfs show signs this could fail quickly. Troughs digging into Cabo…hope ens aren’t head faking us at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago January looking bleak 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: January looking bleak Bleak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 56 minutes ago Author Share Posted 56 minutes ago Bleak?0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago Well you have to acknowledge that just about every good 15 day multi model look has gone to crap for more than a year, so why wouldn’t this one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 40 minutes ago Share Posted 40 minutes ago 16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: 0z Euro and 6z GFS did not work in our favor (should note that they don't even agree with their own end suites) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Easy now with jan96 and jan11 redux. Both euro and gfs show signs this could fail quickly. Troughs digging into Cabo…hope ens aren’t head faking us at h5. I just referenced the comparison between the two charts. Not a forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted 33 minutes ago Share Posted 33 minutes ago 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: January looking bleak 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bleak? Depends on the scale being used? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 32 minutes ago Author Share Posted 32 minutes ago I look at ensembles. Early month is shaky, but after that looks good for a time. Here's hoping we don't have a shortened snow seasonSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago The trolls and the “TIT’s”(Trolls In Training) are quick to pounce on any sign of failure…grasping at OP runs 10 and 12 days out. Wretched creatures they are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 28 minutes ago Share Posted 28 minutes ago I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago Just now, CoastalWx said: I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently. There’s always a chance…most level headed folks here know things are never iron clad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean maybe there’s a chance, but that’s not what they show currently. this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago GEFS has an overrunning type setup for the 4-5th btw. potent SS vort running into confluence. this is probably the first shot at snow for most in this pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the "look at long range OP runs" to get yourself worked up part of the LR forecasting process apparently lmao Even so, I don’t know how you can claim the whole month shaky if it rains on January 4. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 19 minutes ago Share Posted 19 minutes ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Even so, I don’t know how you can claim the whole month shaky if it rains on January 4. You can’t…but that’s the Troll(TIT) mentality. That’s Ingenious shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago Although I’m anxiously awaiting Ray’s blog for Jacksonville FL if the euro is right while he’s bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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