CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 PM Those lower height anomalies west of Baja also might be a sign of some STJ involvement. Given that look of significant ridging, it’s probably needed to help with any suppression. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM 12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'. Next as in 1/5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:11 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'. Only 13 days to go! The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:13 PM Just now, ORH_wxman said: Only 13 days to go! The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Sunday at 06:15 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:15 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now. CFS too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Sunday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:22 PM 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Only 13 days to go! The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. GFS looks to avoid the earlier big rainer. That would be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:24 PM guys just fyi, it's not just the euro. we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread. lol it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -' 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:43 PM 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: guys just fyi, it's not just the euro. we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread. lol it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -' lol this is a ridiculous look. split flow, -EPO, elongated TPV, 50/50 ULL, and vorticity hanging out over the SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now. Let’s get that more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:13 PM EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:14 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. No SE ridge there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:17 PM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:20 PM 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good stuff, John...thanks. Always learn something from your posts. I learn there are at least two more words I don't know the meaning of in every post. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Only 13 days to go! The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. quick, someone start a thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM Just now, ORH_wxman said: Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. Agreed. At this time range it doesn't really matter....just mild amusement for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:23 PM 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No SE ridge there. Yeah it’s been kicked down into South America. That period between Jan 3-6 looks really ripe at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:28 PM Just glancing at the 12z EURO suite....looks like SWFE NYE, great coastal Jan 2 and then maybe something with a sharper N cut off INVO Jan 5. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:34 PM 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. Pretty strong Hi NE of ME, albeit weakening/retreating.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:35 PM 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: that's the one i'm more focused on at this time rather than the crazed unlikeliness out there in the quackery time range - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM i'm not concerning with ptype at this range... could be rain. i'm trying to be right for the right reason on where storm genesis/impacts take place in general. i'm willing to bet that the nao's influence on temperatures at this range is open to modulation anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:47 PM 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. the gefs ending frame is shockingly amplified at the wholesale hemispheric scope on this particular 12z mean - i've not ever seen that at this range, frankly. it's 360 dopey hours but ... usually by d10 the noise of the members is transforming the mean into a annular structure ... but this is just weird what that's doing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:00 PM for 270 hrs out in time, to mention also the erstwhile coursework of discussion ..data et al, this is a fantastic signal - and it is in both the gefs and eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range. Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range. Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies. We 4 wave in 2015 lets do it again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted Sunday at 11:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:18 PM 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: 12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'. Next as in 1/5 If southern NH is going to have a blizzard in January, it'll be on the 4th. It's a tightly scheduled day, just perfect for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:44 AM Lol.... I'm traveling to Florida on the 2nd first thing in the morning and coming back Sunday the 5th. Going to a memorial for my cousin's mom who passed away. Watch us have an epic blizzard when I'm gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 01:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:02 AM 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS 11-15 day composite. That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. It would be ideal to have an AI that finds all the five-day periods similar to projected five-day maps for analoging purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:03 AM 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range. Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies. What is a three-wave pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Monday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:21 AM 16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: What is a three-wave pattern? If you look at the broad troughs in the picture you’ll count 3 of them on the NHEM view of gefs and eps. 4-5 wave patterns tend to occur more frequently I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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