Jester January

[CoastalWx]

Those lower height anomalies west of Baja also might be a sign of some STJ involvement. Given that look of significant ridging, it’s probably needed to help with any suppression. 

[mitchnick]

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'.

Next as in 1/5

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'.

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

CFS too

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

GFS looks to avoid the earlier big rainer. That would be nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

guys  just fyi, it's not just the euro.  we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread.  lol

it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -'

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

guys  just fyi, it's not just the euro.  we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread.  lol

it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -'

lol this is a ridiculous look. split flow, -EPO, elongated TPV, 50/50 ULL, and vorticity hanging out over the SW

[CoastalWx]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

Let’s get that more east.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

 No SE ridge there. 

[MJO812]

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good stuff, John...thanks. Always learn something from your posts.

I learn there are at least two more words I don't know the meaning of in every post.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

quick, someone start a thread!

[moneypitmike]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 

Agreed.  At this time range it doesn't really matter....just mild amusement for now.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 No SE ridge there. 

Yeah it’s been kicked down into South America. That period between Jan 3-6 looks really ripe at least. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just glancing at the 12z EURO suite....looks like SWFE NYE, great coastal Jan 2 and then maybe something with a sharper N cut off INVO Jan 5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 

Pretty strong Hi NE of ME, albeit weakening/retreating....

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

that's the one i'm more focused on at this time rather than the crazed unlikeliness out there in the quackery time range -

 

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm not concerning with ptype at this range... could be rain.  i'm trying to be right for the right reason on where storm genesis/impacts take place in general.

i'm willing to bet that the nao's influence on temperatures at this range is open to modulation anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

the gefs ending frame is shockingly amplified at the wholesale hemispheric scope on this particular 12z mean - i've not ever seen that at this range, frankly.  

it's 360 dopey hours but ... usually by d10 the noise of the members is transforming the mean into a annular structure ...  but this is just weird what that's doing

[Typhoon Tip]

for 270 hrs out in time, to mention also the erstwhile coursework of discussion ..data et al, this is a fantastic signal - and it is in both the gefs and eps

 

[weathafella]

Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range.  Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range.  Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies.

 

We 4 wave in 2015 lets do it again 

[monadnocks]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'.

Next as in 1/5

If southern NH is going to have a blizzard in January, it'll be on the 4th. It's a tightly scheduled day, just perfect for a storm. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Lol.... I'm traveling to Florida on the 2nd first thing in the morning and coming back Sunday the 5th. Going to a memorial for my cousin's mom who passed away. Watch us have an epic blizzard when I'm gone

[Henry's Weather]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

It would be ideal to have an AI that finds all the five-day periods similar to projected five-day maps for analoging purposes

[Henry's Weather]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range.  Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies.

 

What is a three-wave pattern?

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

What is a three-wave pattern?

If you look at the broad troughs in the picture you’ll count 3 of them on the NHEM view of gefs and eps.  4-5 wave patterns tend to occur more frequently I think.