Jester January

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah it’s all pretty marginal. 850s are warm, but dry so there’s room to wetbulb down near 0C up there. It looks a bit like early spring in the mid levels. Turn the flow westerly and we would torch…bring in precip or turn it E-NE and it’s a bit raw.

Yeah I think it’s a messy system. Better for you guys, probably a mess here.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe an ice threat?

Yes..... Tolland is supposed to be encapsulated in solid ice. People from around the world will visit and be awe struck by the Ice Castles as the town will be covered for months. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yes..... Tolland is supposed to be encapsulated in solid ice. People from around the world will visit and be awe struck by the Ice Castles as the town will be covered for months. 

That GFS look definitely shows a zr threat with warmth aloft but shallow cold. . Long way out and probably will change ,but that looks like ice for some areas 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Really nice to see how more time than not, in the general sense, things have trended better as we get closer.  No real soggy warmup next week and then a threat at least and maybe a great pattern

I personally don’t think the week after Christmas changed that much. Mid levels are torched relative to the season, but it’s a little fake with the dry airmass. We’ll probably have a lot of poor mixing days even if we have some sun. 

[mahk_webstah]

We might all benefit from climo given time of year

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dendrite said:

I personally don’t think the week after Christmas changed that much. Mid levels are torched relative to the season, but it’s a little fake with the dry airmass. We’ll probably have a lot of poor mixing days even if we have some sun. 

I don’t understand the nuances up here like you do. I was speaking more generally, and I probably get caught up on the emotions of the people to our south.  But the tenor just a few days ago was that it was gonna get quite warm between Christmas and New Year’s.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I don’t understand the nuances up here like you do. I was speaking more generally, and I probably get caught up on the emotions of the people to our south.  But the tenor just a few days ago was that it was gonna get quite warm between Christmas and New Year’s.

Some of that was me. You get a week of 850s above 0C and you figure torched mins and at least a couple of days where you go westerly and push 50-60 across the region. I think I posted a few days ago that it wouldn’t necessarily be tulips and skip-its at the sfc, but we may actually be able to radiate the first half of this stretch and keep some teens and 20s overnight to really keep it iced up before the step up climb in mins sets in toward NYE.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think it’s a messy system. Better for you guys, probably a mess here.

I think that system establishes a 50/50 for a larger threat afterwards

[CoastalWx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that system establishes a 50/50 for a larger threat afterwards

Yeah. As long as we have something lol. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I personally don’t think the week after Christmas changed that much. Mid levels are torched relative to the season, but it’s a little fake with the dry airmass. We’ll probably have a lot of poor mixing days even if we have some sun. 

Yeah it’s solidly AN, just not 60 stuff.

[Damage In Tolland]

Most of the warmth will be from nighttime lows 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of the warmth will be from nighttime lows 

Will be 40 after Christmas 

[Torch Tiger]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a possible snower 12/31-Jan 3 frame 

 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe an ice threat?

morphed into flood threat soon enough

[ORH_wxman]

With that high nosing down, you’re not gonna be able to mix to 50-55 at the sfc very well…so you could get days that are like 38/28 despite 850 temps near 0C or even a bit higher. 
 

So it will be above normal but not your typical 50s unless the wholesale pattern changes and we see more westerly or southwesterly flow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol i know you’re on the big storm train. the similarities are uncanny, obviously not calling for anything this massive but the pattern really is analogous

it's amusing ...

but also - i'm not on the big storm train?   not yet, anyway.   i'm on the favorable pattern train, luxury accommodations, too, but just for the pattern.  

as far as specific events the may come about,  the nearest one that may emerge is ~ 31st, which as of the time of previous words was 10 days away; thus, to rule out the 31st is a bit braver than i.  considering the  panoply of different tech sources + personal experience + personal techniques) ..divided by 3, it really averages out to a period of interest that begins around 31st,  but really also has a blurred ending... i've been saying 5th or 6th, but really the pattern carries on right to the temporal horizon of the ens mean, both in the spatial layout as well as the telecon numerical derivatives.

the latter, btw, signals the 31st still as of this morning reviewing those...  the one for the 2nd/3rd is actually slightly less supported, and there's not really a signal at out for the 6th there ... however, the spatial/ synoptic and super synoptic ( this latter contains aspects such as trends and even 'intangibles' for lack of better word) suggests a correction tendency toward emergence - that has to be speculative for now, unfortunately.  

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's amusing ...

but also - i'm not on the big storm train?   not yet, anyway.   i'm on the favorable pattern train, luxury accommodations, too, but just for the pattern.  

as far as specific events the may come about,  the nearest one that may emerge is ~ 31st, which as of the time of previous words was 10 days away; thus, to rule out the 31st is a bit braver than i.  considering the  panoply of different tech sources + personal experience + personal techniques) ..divided by 3, it really averages out to a period of interest that begins around 31st,  but really also has a blurred ending... i've been saying 5th or 6th, but really the pattern carries on right to the temporal horizon of the ens mean, both in the spatial layout as well as the telecon numerical derivatives.

the latter, btw, signals the 31st still as of this morning reviewing those...  the one for the 2nd/3rd is actually slightly less supported, and there's not really a signal at out for the 6th there ... however, the spatial/ synoptic and super synoptic ( this latter contains aspects such as trends and even 'intangibles' for lack of better word) suggests a correction tendency toward emergence - that has to be speculative for now, unfortunately.  

sorry for conflating the favorable pattern / big storm stuff. usually one just leads to the other haha

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

sorry for conflating the favorable pattern / big storm stuff. usually one just leads to the other haha

no apology necessary ha.   just that folks have sort of a 'constructive memory' - if anything, it's good to point all this out, to avoid that 'mechanical engineering'    lol

[SnoSki14]

EPS looks better than GEFS. I don't like the lower heights out west on the GFS. 

The Hudson Bay block could be the biggest positive in all of this.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no apology necessary ha.   just that folks have sort of a 'constructive memory' - if anything, it's good to point all this out, to avoid that 'mechanical engineering'    lol

John, You said yesterday in a post that you put in the December thread(so that most would see it) …about something “massive.”  By massive did you mean the pattern?  

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

EPS looks better than GEFS. I don't like the lower heights out west on the GFS. 

The Hudson Bay block could be the biggest positive in all of this.

i know what you're referring to, but the difference between this look and the last couple of years is that the core of the negative anomalies is over the Rockies and northern Plains. there's also a crap ton of confluence showing up. I see a potent Rockies vort running into confluence with cold air in place

without the confluence? sure, not great, but the Atlantic changes the entire pattern

[brooklynwx99]

that negative anomaly over the Rockies is likely the GEFS trying to parse some larger storm signal more than anything IMO. you can see it on the vorticity plot

kind of a ridiculous look with the AK ridging, 50/50, -NAO, and vorticity from the Plains into the SW. the elongated TPV is also a classic feature of these blocking patterns

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

John, You said yesterday in a post that you put in the December thread(so that most would see it) …about something “massive.”  By massive did you mean the pattern?  

no, i meant an event - but the point is ...the ceiling is higher than normal.  that's still not forecasting anything specific though.

the pattern aspect is greater than normal confidence for this time range, do to a collection of sources ... i call this "teleconnector convergence"   ... that favors the genesis of events even more. 

just as a primer, whenever you see a large scale change in the pattern basis, like that which is clearly being demoed now by all three ens systems ( eps/gefs/geps) to take place between the 30th and some unknown time beyond ( in a similar time span) ,  during such period that is when events are more favored to materialize.  within that facet, there are some markers in the eps ensemble mean at the time, and that's when it gets more interesting. 

any one of those wave spaces that times through the continent, while that canvas is going on, has a +d(amplitude) implied.   that's what the eps had yesterday, which i annotated ... it had a s/w injected through the west, and it was getting a huge positive feedback from the aforementioned background pattern change - a change that correlates to events.  i suspect you want a clear and concise declaration for a big event ?   it should be okay to address the potential of one materializing without being held accountable to one.  I'd probably would have started a thread/conferred doing so if i thought i had that worked out.   in fairness, i'm interesting in the 31st ...and how it may set the table for the 2nd/3rd, but the vision is way too primitive for now.

anyway, that's what the 'massive' adjective was about. it is just because the relative scale and degree of the background pattern change, being that it is highly positively correlated, that means the ceiling is higher than normal.   

[Ginx snewx]

A post doe Forky 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that negative anomaly over the Rockies is likely the GEFS trying to parse some larger storm signal more than anything IMO. you can see it on the vorticity plot

kind of a ridiculous look with the AK ridging, 50/50, -NAO, and vorticity from the Plains into the SW. the elongated TPV is also a classic feature of these blocking patterns

 

it's what that could be, yup ...   in fact, if you cinema the chart you can track that/those as they get booted east through the continent - i was just pointing this out in previous post.  the difference there is that if wave is not trackable and the height impression is more statically positioned, it's more likely to be an artifact of the ensemble noise.

[Prismshine Productions]

A post doe Forky 

Notice he has not posted since this week's torch got cancelled

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Notice he has not posted since this week's torch got cancelled

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

And that’s how you know he’s a huge Troll.  Sad. 

[EastonSN+]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know what you're referring to, but the difference between this look and the last couple of years is that the core of the negative anomalies is over the Rockies and northern Plains. there's also a crap ton of confluence showing up. I see a potent Rockies vort running into confluence with cold air in place

without the confluence? sure, not great, but the Atlantic changes the entire pattern

Great post the last couple of years had a trough to Baja west of the Rockies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's what that could be, yup ...   in fact, if you cinema the chart you can track that/those as they get booted east through the continent - i was just pointing this out in previous post.  the difference there is that if wave is not trackable and the height impression is more statically positioned, it's more likely to be an artifact of the ensemble noise.

Good stuff, John...thanks. Always learn something from your posts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Notice he has not posted since this week's torch got cancelled

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Yea, and I even tagged him in a post imploring comment....crickets.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i know what you're referring to, but the difference between this look and the last couple of years is that the core of the negative anomalies is over the Rockies and northern Plains. there's also a crap ton of confluence showing up. I see a potent Rockies vort running into confluence with cold air in place

without the confluence? sure, not great, but the Atlantic changes the entire pattern

Yea, that is one theme that surfaced in my seasonal work last month....lower heights more centrally focused as opposed to being pinned to the west coast like 2022. My timing has been a bit wonky, though...a sin that is more forgivable on a seasonal scale.