Torch Tiger Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago honestly if you are a SNE snow weenie, a 96 redux would be great. I don't remember the exact total from that blizzard"", especially since it was multi-part / south shore death bands. Depth was like 33-34" at one point before the massacre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not the 2016 one? No. 2016 got the 12-16 line to the CT coast, and slightly inland. Once up to me, it was about 10”. North of me it dropped off like a rock…like almost nothing north of the CT line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not the 2016 one? 2016 never made it beyond a moderate event in Boston and none to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: honestly if you are a SNE snow weenie, a 96 redux would be great. I don't remember the exact total from that blizzard"", especially since it was multi-part / south shore death bands. Depth was like 33-34" at one point before the massacre It sucked for my area....that would probably send me right over the edge after following up the string of rainers with a Boston CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It sucked for my area. How much did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Just now, weathafella said: How much did you get? Like 5-7" of sand....about 10 miles south of me had 18"+. I was in Wilmington then, thankfully and was great there. But I am speaking from a Methuen POV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago This is why I am paranoid about having arctic molasses over se Canada.....because unless I get under the mid level deformation, it's going to pin low level fronto to the coast and pork the ever living shit out of me yet again. It sounds absurd to worry about mesoscale shit at this juncture, but in my area it's like clock work and you can predict it well given some of these modeled set ups. The concern is two-fold....getting the precipitation up this far north, which Jan 96 struggled with (Jan 16 failed to do)...and not having the subsidence due to the arctic induced OES enhancement...a la Dec 2003, PD II and Jan 2022. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago I'd just assume take my chances with a marginal airmass and a less than ideal overall set up...I do best with a little ugly, like Kev and chicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Like 5-7" of sand....about 10 miles south of me had 18"+. I was in Wilmington then, thankfully and was great there. But I am speaking from a Methuen POV. That sucks! I think the Berkshires got >2 feet so it must have been pure latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 1 minute ago, weathafella said: That sucks! I think the Berkshires got >2 feet so it must have been pure latitude. Yep....I agree that any SNE weenie should love the comparison, but I'm CNE TBH...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago There aren't many Miller As that I love....probably the Megalopolis storm of Feb 1983 and that is about it- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Anyway, I am just going off of what I have read online....I haven't looked at January since my outlook. Gonna start to look at it for myself this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There aren't many Miller As that I love....probably the Megalopolis storm of Feb 1983 and that is about it- I’d imagine you don’t remember that one though…cuz you’re too young. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’d imagine you don’t remember that one though…cuz you’re too young. Right? Very vaguely...one of my earliest memories. I know my area actually got in the CF band, though and had around 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Very vaguely...one of my earliest memories. I know my area actually got in the CF band, though and had around 20". Ok..wow. That’s real cool. I was 14, almost 15 (in a month), and it was a real good storm, in a time that it just didn’t snow much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ok..wow. That’s real cool. I was 14, almost 15 (in a month), and it was a real good storm, in a time that it just didn’t snow much at all. I don't need or expect a jackpot...all I ask is not be an island of 10" within a sea of 20". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago All I ask is to not look at phantom epic patterns that are always 300 hours away. Brooklyn should just make an animation of the great pattern staying at the same hour for run after run lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: All I ask is to not look at phantom epic patterns that are always 300 hours away. Brooklyn should just make an animation of the great pattern staying at the same hour for run after run lol. C’mon…he’s a Pro, and shares what is possible. You gotta know that there are no guarantees. And You know this. I actually appreciate his explanations. Just goes to show that a great pattern, doesn’t mean it’ll produce anything. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: C’mon…he’s a Pro, and shares what is possible. You gotta know that there are no guarantees. And You know this. I actually appreciate his explanations. Just goes to show that a great pattern, doesn’t mean it’ll produce anything. I'm not questioning his expertise or knowledge. I just get skeptical of a big change until it gets inside D9-10. So far I'm seeing ensembles showing a change around D14. How many times do we see the pattern get significantly delayed and or not end up being as great as advertised? Do you know what phase/amplitude the MJO is looking like for early Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'm not questioning his expertise or knowledge. I just get skeptical of a big change until it gets inside D9-10. So far I'm seeing ensembles showing a change around D14. How many times do we see the pattern get significantly delayed and or not end up being as great as advertised? Do you know what phase/amplitude the MJO is looking like for early Jan? The MJO is not a driver. But No, I don’t know or really care what it is to be honest. But as I said, you need to know that these looks that are posted by Brooklyn, and Will, and Tip are for discussion purposes only. Take it for what it’s worth…which is just a look. The look can change. The look can morph…but it doesn’t mean it’ll produce. But I’ll take my chances with a good look anytime. And anybody can be skeptical, but I want trained guys to post maps that look good when they do. Jmo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: The MJO is not a driver. But No, I don’t know or really care what it is to be honest. But as I said, you need to know that these looks that are posted by Brooklyn, and Will, and Tip are for discussion purposes only. Take it for what it’s worth…which is just a look. The look can change. The look can morph…but it doesn’t mean it’ll produce. But I’ll take my chances with a good look anytime. And anybody can be skeptical, but I want trained guys to post maps that look good when they do. Jmo. I agree. I’m just not allowing myself to get emotionally hooked until I get inside of six days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Looks like a NY eve/day threat on guidance. Might be more of a SWFE so latitude could be favored. Ray rejoices. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like a NY eve/day threat on guidance. Might be more of a SWFE so latitude could be favored. Ray rejoices. I know the warm-up has been muted for the week between Christmas and the years, but is there a cold air source? A scooter high or something? That is my birthday so it would be special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I know the warm-up has been muted for the week between Christmas and the years, but is there a cold air source? A scooter high or something? That is my birthday so it would be special. Hard to tell, some signs it could be cold enough at least to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago There is a high but it retreats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: There is a high but it retreats Nne special then in typical swfe fashion but cne gets in on it before the changeover and dryslot. And sne fingers their rosary beads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Nne special then in typical swfe fashion but cne gets in on it before the changeover and dryslot. And sne fingers their rosary beads. 6z gfs was cold to start here. We pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Yeah it’s all pretty marginal. 850s are warm, but dry so there’s room to wetbulb down near 0C up there. It looks a bit like early spring in the mid levels. Turn the flow westerly and we would torch…bring in precip or turn it E-NE and it’s a bit raw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: 6z gfs was cold to start here. We pray. Really nice to see how more time than not, in the general sense, things have trended better as we get closer. No real soggy warmup next week and then a threat at least and maybe a great pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Maybe an ice threat? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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