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Jester January


Prismshine Productions
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seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7
Ah so literally rinse wash and repeat from last year... How do the weeklies look?

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3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ah so literally rinse wash and repeat from last year... How do the weeklies look?

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they look good. the context is different from last year, though. this isn't a super Nino so we aren't going to see a raging Pacific jet all year

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1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

I would be happy if we can get one 20-24 incher in January or even February, miss those big storms, it's like a two day holiday. Multiple small ones are ok too but not the same.

Agree. I personally Haven’t had an 18+ event since Jan 11. This area, Feb13. Came close a few times and some colossal busts. 

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 Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December...
January 2025 Outlook
January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974
 
The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal.
 
JAN%20H5.png
 
New%20Jan%20Temps.png
January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO
JAN%20Precip.png
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 Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December... January 2025 Outlook January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974   The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal.   JAN%20H5.png  
New%20Jan%20Temps.png
January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO
JAN%20Precip.png
Since I am still relatively new here... Can you explain the difference between a KU, HECS, and MECS?

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3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact:

BECS
KU
MECS
HECS?

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As Ray said they’re all KUs but in order of severity 

BECS—think superstorm of 93

HECS—January 2022 blizzard in eastern Mass or the 2016 blizzard from DC to SNE

MECS—your run of the mill 8-12” snowfall from Philly to Portland

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