Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:47 PM The QuarterMark for the century has come after the Grinch stole Christmas and New Years... Who knows what awaits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Jester ? The molester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Tanuary to start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Now we’re making threads for months that don’t start for more than two weeks? This place is going down the tubes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 07:31 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:31 PM Now we’re making threads for months that don’t start for more than two weeks? This place is going down the tubes. Mainly made it as a place holder, besides, beats glaring at the blowtorch next weekSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:37 PM Hopefully a well AN month with a few light snow events to "temper tantrums" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:38 PM seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM I swear I am reading the January thread from last year 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 07:51 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:51 PM seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7Ah so literally rinse wash and repeat from last year... How do the weeklies look?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:56 PM 3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Ah so literally rinse wash and repeat from last year... How do the weeklies look? Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk they look good. the context is different from last year, though. this isn't a super Nino so we aren't going to see a raging Pacific jet all year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted Monday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:12 PM OT I didn't know where to post this. Many people here are under-educated in this field of science. A new year, this URL is for those who would like to learn. I hope this helps some. Glossary of Meteorology 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:47 PM 1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said: Mainly made it as a place holder, besides, beats glaring at the blowtorch next week Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Is this for Jan 25 or Jan 26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 09:18 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:18 PM Is this for Jan 25 or Jan 26?You have no idea how bad I want to say President's Day XDSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:28 PM Definitely getting the deja vu feeling...wonder if there's some kind of lag from the super Nino last year? We had lag during a moderate or strong Nina in 2010-11. Sadly that's the last time we really had a -NAO I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM I would be happy if we can get one 20-24 incher in January or even February, miss those big storms, it's like a two day holiday. Multiple small ones are ok too but not the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted yesterday at 01:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:54 AM 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: I would be happy if we can get one 20-24 incher in January or even February, miss those big storms, it's like a two day holiday. Multiple small ones are ok too but not the same. Agree. I personally Haven’t had an 18+ event since Jan 11. This area, Feb13. Came close a few times and some colossal busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted yesterday at 02:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:20 AM 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree. I personally Haven’t had an 18+ event since Jan 11. This area, Feb13. Came close a few times and some colossal busts. Yup. WNE gets set up like a bowling pin and then gets knocked down. It gets to wearin' thin but we just keep truckin' on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December... January 2025 Outlook January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974 The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal. January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago My guess is we wait later into the first week if we are to see anything worth tracking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December... January 2025 Outlook January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974 The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal. January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO Since I am still relatively new here... Can you explain the difference between a KU, HECS, and MECS?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Kocin-Uccellini book worthy storm HECS MECS BECS are Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) terms…historical major biblical east coast snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Kocin-Uccellini book worthy storm HECS MECS BECS are Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) terms…historical major biblical east coast snowstorms Since we don't get these anymore we may need to derive some acronyms for our cutters and rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago Kocin-Uccellini book worthy storm HECS MECS BECS are Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) terms…historical major biblical east coast snowstorms Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact:BECSKUMECSHECS?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact: BECS KU MECS HECS? Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk All of them are KUs.....the acronyms are subsets that are parsed by severity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago All of them are KUs.....the acronyms are subsets that are parsed by severity.Ah, thank youSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Can work with the end of the EPS (now into early Jan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact: BECS KU MECS HECS? Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk As Ray said they’re all KUs but in order of severity BECS—think superstorm of 93 HECS—January 2022 blizzard in eastern Mass or the 2016 blizzard from DC to SNE MECS—your run of the mill 8-12” snowfall from Philly to Portland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Or Blizzard of 78 and 2013 for BECS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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