E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[Albedoman]

El Nino, LA Nina really does not matter at this point for even next winter  This is the worst weather pattern I have seen since the late 1980's for trying to produce a 6+ in snow event. I honestly do not know what will destroy this dry and windy progressive pattern. I keep saying a true miller A event. I am not giving up hope but March of 58 type of storm event is our last chance IMHO. The real bitch is even if we get 18 inches of snow, it will be gone in a week. After the thursday minor event of what I think will be generally a 3-5 inch advisory snow event, I am going to close the door halfway on this winter being over for anymore major snow events. 

I do not about many of the posters feelings right now  but  I am more anxious of seeing a raging constant thunderstorm with cloud to ground lightning every other minute than another nuisance snow event. This past summer with a few t-storms were a joke with the drought.

The ground right now is really frozen hard and deep. I am ready to see some bulbs open up. My daffodils are up but it will take a week of 50 degree sunny weather to help.

Today was the hardest I have seen it rain since New Years around 4 pm when the front was coming through. I received about .65 of liquid gold, including the 2 in of snow which is just about gone. Still not even close to a drought buster or even putting a dent in it  as nothing got absorbed  and basically ran off into the street as the soils were still frozen. We really need 50 degree weather for a week to thaw the soils to make a difference with the drought

 

[Newman]

Genuinely can't remember the last time a storm shifted so bad on guidance, usually it stops bleeding at some point. The Ukie barely even has a surface reflection. It's comical actually

[penndotguy]

Correct me if I’m wrong but the system in question is just now entering the Pacific Northwest?  I mean not for nothing but we can see the same turnaround by the guidance at this stage just grasping for straws I guess. We all should have seen the writing on the wall in January with these 10 day fantasies. Bring on severe Season I guess. 

[Violentweatherfan]

This is the first time I’ve heard the term “dead upper level low”. So we are dealing with ULL’s that are Walkers?

[Physicsteve]

I dunno this was a failure of modeling as soon as 5 days out. Someone else has said it before but it does make you wonder about the usefulness of running ops out so far. Even the ensembles were pretty useless for a while, although they eventually offered some hints of failure. But in my jadedness I think anything more than 168 hours for the ops is a waste of resources. 

[Mikeymac5306]

 

[ChescoWx]

14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going to steal a page from Ji...but this was a pretty disappointing winter. We finally look to have a D-J-,F all BN temps yet I am only halfway to avg seasonal snowfall. I realize the clime is different than 25 years ago, but seriously, what do we need to do anymore? You would think with seasonal BN temps we would have cashed in on at least 1 good storm. Just tired of being nickel and dimed. Maybe it was an avg Nina winter. But seriously. The last 9 winters have been depressing asf. And we've had a few Ninos during that period, and we still can't cash in. So I'm not sure what it takes anymore at this point just to reach avg snowfall around here. End rant...see you for 0z runs 

Just to add a touch of factual figures to the snow discussion. As I have often shown before folks have recency bias at work with their views on snow. There is clearly no evidence of anything then our typical normal cyclical trends of snow totals. If anything maybe our climate is trending snowier??? The 1st 20 years of our current century since Y2k were in fact the 2nd snowiest 20 year period in our entire history! Even though the first half of our current decade including this year which the last flake has possibly not even fallen yet...shows that this current decade of the 2020's is still snowier so far on average than the 1930's, 1940's. 1950's and 1970's - Facts over our feelings always work best!

[Birds~69]

Flurries, 29F

Woohoo!!

[BBasile]

I guess the GFS wasn't the odd one out.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Just to add a touch of factual figures to the snow discussion. As I have often shown before folks have recency bias at work with their views on snow. There is clearly no evidence of anything then our typical normal cyclical trends of snow totals. If anything maybe our climate is trending snowier??? The 1st 20 years of our current decade were the 2nd snowiest 20 year period in our entire history! Even though the first half of our current decade including this year which the last flake has possibly not even fallen yet...shows that this current decade of the 2020's is still snowier so far on average than the 1930's, 1940's. 1950's and 1970's - Facts over our feelings always work best!

Fact is as I stated we will end up BN snowfall avg for the season yet again. Take the blind science goggles off Paul.

[Ralph Wiggum]

And just to add, if you want to cherry pick for an agenda, the last 10 years have been one of the least snowiest 10-year periods since we've kept records. Yes there were other 10-year periods that averaged less, but im just telling you again,  we are finishing BN for the season more than likely and it has been common recently. That was the statement then you seem to have taken it to some other level not sure what nerve I hit with ya bud. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fact is as I stated we will end up BN snowfall avg for the season yet again. Take the blind science goggles off Paul.

Right now 12.83” here in Media this is more than last three years combined largest snowfall here this year 3.4”

[ChescoWx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And just to add, if you want to cherry pick for an agenda, the last 10 years have been one of the least snowiest 10-year periods since we've kept records. Yes there were other 10-year periods that averaged less, but im just telling you again,  we are finishing BN for the season more than likely and it has been common recently. That was the statement then you seem to have taken it to some other level not sure what nerve I hit with ya bud. 

Steve, I could dice up those years in any 10 year increments and it does not make a difference. This is of course clearly not cherry picking data....it is what it is and there is no sign at all that our climate is less snowy than the past - we only have the actual facts of the climate in our area!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Right now 12.83” here in Media this is more than last three years combined largest snowfall here this year 3.4”

That's all well and good. I'm not totally disappointed as we did have around 12 separate snow events. But this wasn't an A or a B grade winter. We had 3 good months of BN and could have done bette. But i also realize colder doesnt mean snowier...often with that we end up with better snows south of us. Also knew a Nina wasn't likely to produce.  Again, just stating the obvious facts. Maybe next year if we can be neutral enso or weak nino.

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And just to add, if you want to cherry pick for an agenda, the last 10 years have been one of the least snowiest 10-year periods since we've kept records. Yes there were other 10-year periods that averaged less, but im just telling you again,  we are finishing BN for the season more than likely and it has been common recently. That was the statement then you seem to have taken it to some other level not sure what nerve I hit with ya bud. 

You said it above "yes there were other 10-year periods that averaged less"  that is my only point!! There is only cyclical climate change at play here!

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Steve, I could dice up those years in any 10 year increments and it does not make a difference. This is of course clearly not cherry picking data....it is what it is and there is no sign at all that our climate is less snowy than the past - we only have the actual facts of the climate in our area!

So you can agree then the the clime past 9 years has changed since we are in a less snowy phase? And it will change again when we hit a more snowy phase?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

You said it above "yes there were other 10-year periods that averaged less"  that is my only point!! There is only cyclical climate change at play here!

That's what I'm talking  about Paul. Change is change, it's always cyclical. But you seemed to have been offended almost to the point of veering off into some political argument. The factual statistical less snow phase the last 9 years was and is not about that nor any agenda my friend. These are facts. 

[Birds~69]

7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Right now 12.83” here in Media this is more than last three years combined largest snowfall here this year 3.4”

If the trend continues this year you'll still be below your average yearly snowfall once again. Some below average yearly snowfall sucks more than others but bottom line you'll be below average again.

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's what I'm talking  about Paul. Change is change, it's always cyclical. But you seemed to have been offended almost to the point of veering off into some political argument. The factual statistical less snow phase the last 9 years was and is not about that nor any agenda my friend. These are facts. 

I don't think it matters that I am a Libertarian or Republican or Democrat or whatever you are - I don't care about anyone's political affiliation! The discussion above in non-political of course!! It is facts and that is all. I have no clue why you think the facts above are some how political??

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If the trend continues this year you'll still be below your average yearly snowfall once again. Some below average yearly snowfall sucks more than others but bottom line you'll be below average again.

When they figure our avg seasonal snowfall, I wonder how that is determined? Is that a rolling 100-year avg? Does that avg get recalculated on a decadal basis? Would be genuinely interested in knowing.

[mattinpa]

Well that was a major letdown. Now it looks like nothing. Will we even get any more chances before spring? If not very fitting the way storms have been all winter.

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When they figure our avg seasonal snowfall, I wonder how that is determined? Is that a rolling 100-year avg? Does that avg get recalculated on a decadal basis? Would be genuinely interested in knowing.

Not sure of 100 years but it's got to be at least several decades. Maybe a Met can chime in...

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Not sure of 100 years but it's got to be at least several decades. Maybe a Met can chime in...

I think it's 30 years (right now, it's the 1991-2020 normals). That's at least what we use for average temperatures. Some time in 2031, it will become the 2001-2030 normals.

[JTA66]

12 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Gotta be climate change screwing with the Pacific Ocean water temps and effing up the PAC Jet skewing ridging out west

This is where I'm at. To my limited weenie understanding of weather, it seems ENSO phases aren't making much of an impact these days. Nino/Nina doesn't matter -- W PAC warm pool keeps slamming the west coast with a strong jet.

Then on the Atlantic side, we have a strong +AMO that links up our few attempts at a -NAO with the SER for a full latitude ridge. Unless and until there are wholesale changes in the global SSTA configuration, we'll be fighting an uphill battle.

The good news is I don't know what I'm talking about, so maybe none of the above applies.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12k nam ticked nw....has light snow back into extreme S NJ now lol

[ChescoWx]

32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When they figure our avg seasonal snowfall, I wonder how that is determined? Is that a rolling 100-year avg? Does that avg get recalculated on a decadal basis? Would be genuinely interested in knowing.

30 year average just like our temperature averages

[Fields27]

I guess the GFS wasn't the odd one out.  

Why can't it be right when it's the only model showing snow? Lol

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[hazwoper]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

I don't think it matters that I am a Libertarian or Republican or Democrat or whatever you are - I don't care about anyone's political affiliation! The discussion above in non-political of course!! It is facts and that is all. I have no clue why you think the facts above are some how political??

If you can’t grasp what adding locked up carbon into our atmosphere does to our climate, I don’t really know what to say.  The science is clear.

[ChescoWx]

18 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

If you can’t grasp what adding locked up carbon into our atmosphere does to our climate, I don’t really know what to say.  The science is clear.

We have to follow the facts and the science - that is all we have!!

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's all well and good. I'm not totally disappointed as we did have around 12 separate snow events. But this wasn't an A or a B grade winter. We had 3 good months of BN and could have done bette. But i also realize colder doesnt mean snowier...often with that we end up with better snows south of us. Also knew a Nina wasn't likely to produce.  Again, just stating the obvious facts. Maybe next year if we can be neutral enso or weak nino.

The best grade I can give this winter is a C- to C+ the bottom line is that we needed much more snow to offset the rapidly falling reservoirs, streams, rivers, lakes and let’s not forget the fires that were popping up throughout the area in October.  I’m very concerned as we head towards Spring and Summer we could potentially dry up very quickly north of the PA / MD / Del line.