Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Literally any other model could do that and we wouldn't flinch. Being the EURO you have to wonder. It now aligns fairly well with the gfs and cmc which sadly is a deadly combo. Certainly too early to wave the white flag but having just the ICON and UK on our side(12z runs verbatim) isn't exactly giving me that warm cozy feeling. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk EPS individuals have a decent amount of complete misses with little to zero precip. Dont tell Albedoman. Then there's are a decent amount with low end mecs hits. Been saying this over in the MA forum for days. This is an all or nothing event imho. Minor change aloft can make a massive impact at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The trend to elongate the TPV simply lowers the ceiling with this one. If you want the high end KU look, you need a consolidated northern stream to phase in like the Ukmet. A moderate event is still on the table of course even if the Euro/GFS scenario happens. But plenty of time left for this one. We'll see some surprises moving forward I'm sure, for good and bad probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Dumb microchip ECM saw little brother ai on the beach in Bermuda and thought "hey why the fook go to Greenland" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not to mention the extreme H5 changes on the Euro itself from 0z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Not to mention the extreme H5 changes on the Euro itself from 0z to 12z. Do you think it received new data ie dropsonde or energy hitting the W Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I got my psyched when the GFS finally caved and then EURO does that lmfao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Do you think it received new data ie dropsonde or energy hitting the W Coast? Taking a step back looking at the North American view, the biggest change was the energy that hits the West Coast around hr90. It deamplifies the PNA ridge and doesn't allow the TPV to dig as far south and stay consolidated. When the ridge breaks down, it just shears out the northern stream. I guess we still have quite a ways to go to know what will happen with that energy and all of the other small nuances in the flow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I got my psyched when the GFS finally caved and then EURO does that lmfao Then I saw the CMC and said eh a hiccup, then I got the Ukie and went on a mad sugar high, then.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Do you think it received new data ie dropsonde or energy hitting the W Coast? Wouldn't all of the models receive the same data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, wkd said: Wouldn't all of the model received the same data? Unsure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, wkd said: Wouldn't all of the model received the same data? Yes they do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I just want one warning level event. Is that asking too much? It’s been like pulling teeth to get one around here sine 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This feels like deja vu with this past Tuesday’s storm. Models show a big snowstorm and then slowly back off until all that’s left is a light, maybe moderate event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: This feels like deja vu with this past Tuesday’s storm. Models show a big snowstorm and then slowly back off until all that’s left is a light, maybe moderate event. “Flavor of the season” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: This feels like deja vu with this past Tuesday’s storm. Models show a big snowstorm and then slowly back off until all that’s left is a light, maybe moderate event. Been this way all season, why should this be any different I’m not excited at all about this potential cause we all know the end game at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: This feels like deja vu with this past Tuesday’s storm. Models show a big snowstorm and then slowly back off until all that’s left is a light, maybe moderate event. We lost the ensembles now as well. That de-escalated extremely quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I gave myself until 12z tomorrow before jumping onboard or bailing. Three more model cycles to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The only thing more depressing than losing this storm is off topic closing down. Man, what will I do with my free time besides argue with people back and forth who I don't even know about stupid things 24/7/365. I'll have to have a talk with myself about my new future goals and aspirations... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 39 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: This feels like deja vu with this past Tuesday’s storm. Models show a big snowstorm and then slowly back off until all that’s left is a light, maybe moderate event. I think this one is different. The weather app on my iPhone has said double-digit inches of snow at PHL for days now. That hasn't happened for any of the other storms this year. I think a major snow event is a sure thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Swear this has happened with every storm this year without fail lmfao. Not doom posting just saying that it tends to lead towards a collapse within day 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That backside low getting close to Seattle isn't at all what you want. We'd prefer it closer to the Gulf of Alaska. I guess the models have trouble with the speed of the northern jet in the long-term. You wonder if that sort of east coast amplification is even possible in this pattern. Shows how perfect the timing would have to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Swear this has happened with every storm this year without fail lmfao. Not doom posting just saying that it tends to lead towards a collapse within day 4-5 Happens 90%+ of the time the past 2 decades in regards to larger long range storms...here and there we get thrown a bone but usually failure is the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The euro is still like 7” for Philly, obviously I’d love 2 feet but 7” is nothing to sneeze at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Yes they do So why do the models have such a difference in the extended outcome? Do different world weather agencies use different atmospheric physics? This is something I have wondered about for a long time. Maybe you or others have the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, wkd said: So why do the models have such a difference in the extended outcome? Do different world weather agencies use different atmospheric physics? This is something I have wondered about for a long time. Maybe you or others have the answer. Not all models use the same math and physics equations plus differences in resolution which impacts the model output solutions. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It’s just a feeling but I don’t think this misses. Maybe 6-12 inches instead but I will take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: It’s just a feeling but I don’t think this misses. Maybe 6-12 inches instead but I will take that. Greedy bastard....I'll take a nice 4-6" with the cold and some wind and be happy as hell. This pennie, nickel and dime crap has gotten old real quick... 31F/Sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Greedy bastard....I'll take a nice 4-6" with the cold and some wind and be happy as hell. This pennie, nickel and dime crap has gotten old real quick... 31F/Sleet I just didn’t want to think that low yet but yes even that would be my biggest. Have not had more than 3-4 inches in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I just didn’t want to think that low yet but yes even that would be my biggest. Have not had more than 3-4 inches in a storm. Pretty sure I've haven't had 3" yet, maybe not much more than 2-2.5". A solid 6" snow would be noticeable.Ya know, plow trucks coming down the streets and all, snow mounds on the sides of roads. A real winter event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 84hr clown NAM was going to be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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