JTA66 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah, nothing to see here. Even on the 12z ukmet. Don’t have the slightest interest in looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ECM and GFS are around only .30" rain for Thursday that thing is devolving \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Most of the precipitation this week on the euro is with it's rain to Maine system next Sunday with 2" Then another drenching cutter on the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Most of the precipitation this week on the euro is with it's rain to Maine system next Sunday with 2" Then another drenching cutter on the 20th I think the 16th is probably our legit last shot at anything significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yeah for what it's worth the ensembles are better than that crappy op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: I think the 16th is probably our legit last shot at anything significant. Hey man we have all of March Seriously though there is so much cold around this year and it's looking to stick around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 36 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM and GFS are around only .30" rain for Thursday that thing is devolving \ Drought rages on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Adding two .50" ice penny events to the rest of my nickel and dimes now up to 15.50" season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Even with clouds and the temperature hanging at 32F the stronger sun angle has cleared off 80% of the .50" solid ice on the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 First call from NWS. Seems reasonable and what my call would be right now. I told my folk yesterday in Fleetwood my first call is 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WSW hoisted for DE and SNJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1-3"sounds like the safe zone. We just can't bust 4" plus for whatever reason.... Parade still on for Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 NAM also shows the thump of sleet/snow Wednesday night less than 24 hours after the Tuesday night storm pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Newman said: NAM also shows the thump of sleet/snow Wednesday night less than 24 hours after the Tuesday night storm pulls away Hey now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Hey now?? The GFS and CMC have it too, Euro is just a bit warmer. Question will be if we can get a HP to anchor in SE Canada and how much CAD holds on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Newman said: The GFS and CMC have it too, Euro is just a bit warmer. Question will be if we can get a HP to anchor in SE Canada and how much CAD holds on. Not being a weenie but I think the CAD will hold on for at least bit and maybe longer than we expect. Cold air really hasn't been our problem this year... It's been around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @JTA66 and I decided we aren't tracking the 11th/12th thing but umm, my wife was looking at the NAM and she umm sent this to me, yep. She said the purples are creeping into S PA now. But I'm not tracking it and thought I would share for her yeah 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yeah Ralph nothing to see there keep watching souper bowl stuff Don't bother with the RGEM either no chance for any changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 RGEM is a really solid hit. Low end WSW for much of SE PA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Newman said: RGEM is a really solid hit. Low end WSW for much of SE PA Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Even with the favorable regional models coming in at 18z, I'm not sold on the magnitude of QPF depicted yet. Still think accumulating snow gets into much of SE PA, but a 1-3 or 2-4 ordeal is the way to go right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I didn't see the rgem so I'm not sure but my dog says there's a decent thump for the 2nd wave now as well. Just to note, he didn't woof about it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It will literally take a miracle of a storm event to get out of this very progressive pattern with no ties to GOA or Atlantic moisture to build upon for our area with storm events. The drought is the king folks for the foreseeable future. I will no longer rely on the models for precip prediction until the progressive pattern changes for weeks rather than for one event. Every model has been horribly operating with wild swings in precip amounts on EVERY SINGLE model run the past two weeks. This happens in a progressive pattern when a single storm event is able to tie into a moisture source like the GOA or the Atlantic. Another fine example of what I am talking about - where the f&*k is the sun today? It was supposed to be mostly sunny not 95% cloudy for 100th time this past six months. The SR models need to be calibrated PERIOD in these progressive patterns and I have been at this game for over 40 years. The air is to damn dry and flowing across the country at break necking speeds. Hard to forecast in these pattern conditions - not faulting MT Holly forecasters as they do a great job analyzing these models but relying on modeling tools appears to be not working even for cloud prediction thats for sure. The accuracy of the current modeling is going backwards not forwards for LR modeling too. Throwing different models out there is not helping either like the Icon Ukie JMA etc. NOAA needs to add additional data sources in the Pacific Ocean and sparse areas to increase the reliability of the data for LR modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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