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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Rgem will be South this run. Well, it was fun while it lasted.

Eta:initial wave slides south  but 2nd wave overnight Tuesday impacts SE PA

Looks okay to me. But I bailed, so I’m not really paying attention or anything :whistle:

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, we're cooked for the next 4 weeks so savor tonight.  :guitar:

actually Ralph, I feel the same way. when the LR models show 40 in snows for 4 to 5 days in a row than nothing- its time  for the forum  to stop looking at them. GFS and the European could NOT sniff out a pile of dog shit right now at ten days. This progressive pattern with no SE troughs is killing us. Tonights storm was a disaster for the meso's. We need a March superstorm like 93 to break up this shitty drought pattern we are in. This drought is no longer a laughing matter as sinkholes are opening up  everywhere in the LV the last two weeks There is absolutely ZERO spring groundwater recharge anywhere south of the Poconos  with no snowpack on the ground. The base flows of the stream in the limestone geology are falling rapidly.  I guess all we can do is  hope the one of the storms dumps some snow on us.  The Friday storm that Mt Holly is calling for rain- I bet it does not even rain .50 in.  All of that will also run into streams as the ground will still remain frozen. The next winter storm warning will only be issued during the storm event because MT Holly cannot even trust getting 6 in totals  in the models before the event LOL

 

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Mt Holly is leaning on the outcome of Tuesday's storm in this morning's  discussion- it is  no drought buster.  No warning criteria  for the LV  thats for sure with only a couple of inches in the forecast. .A far cry from the 12 + inches in last weeks model runs. The hype by the media  will be cured IMHO. It will literally take a miracle of a storm event to get out of this east west progressive pattern with no ties to GOA or Atlantic moisture to build upon for our area.  I-95's enjoy your 4-6 inches because it will all be gone with Fridays rain event.

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Not sure what the driving force to move it north would be, everything right now is a west to east flow.

And it’s gonna be fast moving ending sooner resultin in less snow totals 

Edit: this is a possibility per snowgoose from the NYC forum

The setup is becoming crazily complicated now, they are almost involving 2 waves which is partially why this has come north and now the big system behind it is trending way less "cutty" at 00Z which I think most agreed would happen since this pattern is not producing a Great Lakes bomb

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Not sure what the driving force to move it north would be, everything right now is a west to east flow.

And it’s gonna be fast moving ending sooner resultin in less snow totals 

Seems everything on the 6z GFS is either southern-sliding, apps-running or lakes-cutting. :lol:

Temp here continues to rise and am currently at 33 with dp 32.  Dripping has been really slow however.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Seems everything on the 6z GFS is either southern-sliding, apps-running or lakes-cutting. :lol:

Temp here continues to rise and am currently at 33 with dp 32.  Dripping has been really slow however.

There is a trough in the west that is driving the south east ridge straight up I-95 

Edit: that is for Thursday 

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15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

To me looks like the low to the south is ticking further and further west with each run perhaps a tick north too both of which causing a more expansive precipitation field. 

Yeah it’s not moving north, just the precip field is expanding. I wouldn’t put much stock into it

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27 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

To me looks like the low to the south is ticking further and further west with each run perhaps a tick north too both of which causing a more expansive precipitation field. 

That's kind of what I'm seeing. A couple inches with a Birds win tonight and I'll be tickled pink, more likely green.

33F/Cloudy... Drip drip underway.

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Go Birds! Our active winter season continues!! With our 10th winter event in the books with last night's 0.5" of sleet and ZR bringing our seasonal snow/sleet to date to 15.6" which is 78% of normal (19.9") through yesterday. It looks like winter events #11 and #12 and possibly 13 will be following this week with a few waves of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Tomorrow looks like the best weather day of the week. Snow should arrive late on Tuesday afternoon and end after midnight. Snow should arrive again on Wednesday night before changing to sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain by Thursday morning. Sunny Friday for the Eagles Parade before more snow and rain arrives on Saturday afternoon.

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Just now, The Iceman said:

Wait I thought Tuesday was cancelled? Though the way this winter has gone i half expect this to scream north in the next 24 hours where we have to worry about mixing :lol:

It is cancelled. GFS went South. See you in December. Go Birds. GO Flyers. Go Phillies.

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6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This is so a page out of the January 6th storm. Come north come north and then everything back south again 24 hours out. 

That’s why Ralph and I aren’t tracking this event ;)

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11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc looks much better for next weekend with a better press.

GFS is close too.  But these distant systems have looked good all winter only to fizzle when within 84 hrs. We shall see. I'm still wondering if we get that mobster storm around the 20th ppl are going on about??

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