Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Not sure anyone mentioned, but the NAM came N for Tuesday 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Y'all see how that reverse psychology works? Winter cancel after tonight's ice storm, kaput! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Rgem will be South this run. Well, it was fun while it lasted. Eta:initial wave slides south but 2nd wave overnight Tuesday impacts SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Rgem will be South this run. Well, it was fun while it lasted. Eta:initial wave slides south but 2nd wave overnight Tuesday impacts SE PA Looks okay to me. But I bailed, so I’m not really paying attention or anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Looks okay to me. But I bailed, so I’m not really paying attention or anything Yeah, we're cooked for the next 4 weeks so savor tonight. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah, we're cooked for the next 4 weeks so savor tonight. actually Ralph, I feel the same way. when the LR models show 40 in snows for 4 to 5 days in a row than nothing- its time for the forum to stop looking at them. GFS and the European could NOT sniff out a pile of dog shit right now at ten days. This progressive pattern with no SE troughs is killing us. Tonights storm was a disaster for the meso's. We need a March superstorm like 93 to break up this shitty drought pattern we are in. This drought is no longer a laughing matter as sinkholes are opening up everywhere in the LV the last two weeks There is absolutely ZERO spring groundwater recharge anywhere south of the Poconos with no snowpack on the ground. The base flows of the stream in the limestone geology are falling rapidly. I guess all we can do is hope the one of the storms dumps some snow on us. The Friday storm that Mt Holly is calling for rain- I bet it does not even rain .50 in. All of that will also run into streams as the ground will still remain frozen. The next winter storm warning will only be issued during the storm event because MT Holly cannot even trust getting 6 in totals in the models before the event LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Sref 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Mt Holly is leaning on the outcome of Tuesday's storm in this morning's discussion- it is no drought buster. No warning criteria for the LV thats for sure with only a couple of inches in the forecast. .A far cry from the 12 + inches in last weeks model runs. The hype by the media will be cured IMHO. It will literally take a miracle of a storm event to get out of this east west progressive pattern with no ties to GOA or Atlantic moisture to build upon for our area. I-95's enjoy your 4-6 inches because it will all be gone with Fridays rain event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Need the Tuesday thingamajigger to move more North...decent cold air will be around. 31 f, cloudy with a stray flake here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Not sure what the driving force to move it north would be, everything right now is a west to east flow. And it’s gonna be fast moving ending sooner resultin in less snow totals Edit: this is a possibility per snowgoose from the NYC forum The setup is becoming crazily complicated now, they are almost involving 2 waves which is partially why this has come north and now the big system behind it is trending way less "cutty" at 00Z which I think most agreed would happen since this pattern is not producing a Great Lakes bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 40 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Not sure what the driving force to move it north would be, everything right now is a west to east flow. And it’s gonna be fast moving ending sooner resultin in less snow totals Seems everything on the 6z GFS is either southern-sliding, apps-running or lakes-cutting. Temp here continues to rise and am currently at 33 with dp 32. Dripping has been really slow however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Seems everything on the 6z GFS is either southern-sliding, apps-running or lakes-cutting. Temp here continues to rise and am currently at 33 with dp 32. Dripping has been really slow however. There is a trough in the west that is driving the south east ridge straight up I-95 Edit: that is for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I’ve got ice all over my feeders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Yeah, if I was still interested in the Tuesday thing, I’d probably be drooling over the NAM right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 17 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, if I was still interested in the Tuesday thing, I’d probably be drooling over the NAM right now. I've moved on to the Great 2025 Ides of March epic blockbuster. Anything happening before then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, if I was still interested in the Tuesday thing, I’d probably be drooling over the NAM right now. Baby steps? Still have about 60 hours to keep ticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Baby steps? Still have about 60 hours to keep ticking. To me looks like the low to the south is ticking further and further west with each run perhaps a tick north too both of which causing a more expansive precipitation field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: To me looks like the low to the south is ticking further and further west with each run perhaps a tick north too both of which causing a more expansive precipitation field. Yeah it’s not moving north, just the precip field is expanding. I wouldn’t put much stock into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: To me looks like the low to the south is ticking further and further west with each run perhaps a tick north too both of which causing a more expansive precipitation field. As positive Paul predicted.....the north jog continues..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 27 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: To me looks like the low to the south is ticking further and further west with each run perhaps a tick north too both of which causing a more expansive precipitation field. That's kind of what I'm seeing. A couple inches with a Birds win tonight and I'll be tickled pink, more likely green. 33F/Cloudy... Drip drip underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If I weren't focused on the mid March pattern I would post that the NAM, ICON, RGEM, NAVGEM, SREF all ticked N and the GFS is looking early to follow suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Go Birds! Our active winter season continues!! With our 10th winter event in the books with last night's 0.5" of sleet and ZR bringing our seasonal snow/sleet to date to 15.6" which is 78% of normal (19.9") through yesterday. It looks like winter events #11 and #12 and possibly 13 will be following this week with a few waves of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Tomorrow looks like the best weather day of the week. Snow should arrive late on Tuesday afternoon and end after midnight. Snow should arrive again on Wednesday night before changing to sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain by Thursday morning. Sunny Friday for the Eagles Parade before more snow and rain arrives on Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Wait I thought Tuesday was cancelled? I can’t keep up. Though the way this winter has gone i half expect this to scream north in the next 24 hours where we have to worry about mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, The Iceman said: Wait I thought Tuesday was cancelled? Though the way this winter has gone i half expect this to scream north in the next 24 hours where we have to worry about mixing It is cancelled. GFS went South. See you in December. Go Birds. GO Flyers. Go Phillies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Latest sref mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Cmc looks much better for next weekend with a better press. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Latest sref mean This is so a page out of the January 6th storm. Come north come north and then everything back south again 24 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: This is so a page out of the January 6th storm. Come north come north and then everything back south again 24 hours out. That’s why Ralph and I aren’t tracking this event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looks much better for next weekend with a better press. GFS is close too. But these distant systems have looked good all winter only to fizzle when within 84 hrs. We shall see. I'm still wondering if we get that mobster storm around the 20th ppl are going on about?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: That’s why Ralph and I aren’t tracking this event Yeah, nothing to see here. Even on the 12z ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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