Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 4:03 PM, Duca892 said: Winter teetering Expand After tonight's mess, its over for all intents and purposes. Pitchers and catchers reporting in a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Euro just went even more South for Tues/Wed. It's over for that threat guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 5:35 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro just went even more South for Tues/Wed. It's over for that threat guys. Expand But the gfs has us getting 30” of snow this week! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 5:35 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro just went even more South for Tues/Wed. It's over for that threat guys. Expand Weenie handbook rule #26: if you’re gonna fail, best to do so days in advance and not 12 hours prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Southeast ridge with three cutters and west coast storminess through the long range. The epic cold is now down to two days of below normal but nothing extreme around the 17th. A pattern fail for the ages you can tell your grandchildren about round the fireplace. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 A few More weeks of storms and rumors of storms! Once we move the Clocks, late till after 7! Ready for spring at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 In other news Direct Weather has this area as ground zero with major blizzards and the snowiest pattern in 10+ years, gotta love'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 6:45 PM, RedSky said: In other news Direct Weather has this area as ground zero with major blizzards and the snowiest pattern in 10+ years, gotta love'em Expand I will repeat, its over after tonight's mess, at least for my area points S and E. LV maybe another shot, perhaps 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Why not watch it for another few cycles. I know people are quick to give up but I don’t see that just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 5:31 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: After tonight's mess, its over for all intents and purposes. Pitchers and catchers reporting in a few days. Expand The NFL will go to 18 games and they may add another bye. Pretty much we may come to the day where it's the Super bowl and a week later pitchers and catchers report. Also throw in March madness with the transition... 32F/Lowering clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Really does feel like the winter end times. Long range looks like total crap. We are already a 1/3rd of the way through February pretty much. Another below average winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I have looked at models much much less this year, really just check in to this forum and the discord to see how things are going but I just don’t expect much in winter anymore, any snow I look at as a bonus so maybe that’s why I’m not that down. I also don’t think it’s a shit the blinds look either. We will get what we will get. Go birds! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Next week could literally be the worst case scenario. First wave misses south, second wave rains on us. Just brutal given how much potential this period had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 8:22 PM, Duca892 said: Really does feel like the winter end times. Long range looks like total crap. We are already a 1/3rd of the way through February pretty much. Another below average winter Expand Euro ensembles have a pretty nice signal around the 20th FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 2:45 PM, Birds~69 said: I've been on this board, back then Eastern weather, for over 20 years. Those long-term, 300 hour models rarely pan out, maybe once in a blue moon. Should have a thread for 5 days and in threats. Then once we get within 2 days or so create a thread for that event. And create a thread for long-term weenie threats which I would look at here and there but certainly not pay close attention to the event draws near. Long-term threats in the current ops is silly and clogs everything up for nothing because they usually fail. Basically take one storm at a time... Expand I have noticed the LR models DO tend to "sniff out" something (whether it pans out "positive" or not), but then it all gets muddled and garbled in the midrange. Looks like the 18z GFS has the Wed. storm do a slide to the south and the Friday one is a thump to rain. As an obs, it's currently overcast and 33 with dp 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Yeah, so like, the RGEM did something for Tuesday: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Can't decide if I care if this moves north with it raining 48hrs later. Empiric victory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 10:38 PM, RedSky said: Can't decide if I care if this moves north with it raining 48hrs later. Empiric victory? Expand Rain, snow or some other form, we just need the moisture given the ongoing drought. 5 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Mike- Always appreciate your time and comments in this forum.. Hope I'm not imposing on asking your opinion on the likely hood that a 9 PM Tuesday evening flight out of PHL (to Madrid- retirement vacation) will be cancelled? Too soon to hypothesize at this time? Much obliged on any comments on trends... I'd have to pull the trigger later tomorrow on reschedule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 11:06 PM, rcostell said: Mike- Always appreciate your time and comments in this forum.. Hope I'm not imposing on asking your opinion on the likely hood that a 9 PM Tuesday evening flight out of PHL (to Madrid- retirement vacation) will be cancelled? Too soon to hypothesize at this time? Much obliged on any comments on trends... I'd have to pull the trigger later tomorrow on reschedule... Expand I think there will be some snow, although confidence is low given the variability in the model guidance. I recommend checking the latest forecasts again tomorrow before making a final decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The fantasy runs were fun while they lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 11:13 PM, MGorse said: I think there will be some snow, although confidence is low given the variability in the model guidance. I recommend checking the latest forecasts again tomorrow before making a final decision. Expand Much obliged Mike. I can give it another 24 hours or so before making the call. Appreciate your thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 On 2/8/2025 at 11:48 PM, rcostell said: Much obliged Mike. I can give it another 24 hours or so before making the call. Appreciate your thoughts. Expand On the subject of drought- I'm 66 and have never seen it this dry, this long. Even the natural bogs down near Chatsworth in the Pines are bone dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 So the 18z euro came north a good bit. The rgem moving N at 18z leads me to believe e the ggem will be n at 0z. Curious if the gfs will still suck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Light freezing rain a few sleet pellets 29f humidity 60% dew point 17f light icing on the cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/9/2025 at 12:03 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: So the 18z euro came north a good bit. The rgem moving N at 18z leads me to believe e the ggem will be n at 0z. Curious if the gfs will still suck Expand It came 120 miles north that's insane Back in the game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/8/2025 at 11:51 PM, rcostell said: On the subject of drought- I'm 66 and have never seen it this dry, this long. Even the natural bogs down near Chatsworth in the Pines are bone dry. Expand How dry is it? The Little Lehigh is a spring fed limestone stream. When we had the -15 degrees temps a few weeks ago, ice formed on the banks of the 55 degree water. Since then, the banks of the stream have remain frozen but the baseflow has continued to drop. The ice hangs over the streams edge by up to a foot above where the original base flow was flowing. I have never seen the base flow of this stream this low in the winter in 30+ years. The sleet tonight will not help much, just make it worse as it freezes the surfaces of the ground and only causes an immediate runoff into the streams from any salted roads without recharging groundwater tables plus its the amount of moisture content is nothing. Its like raining ice cubes on frozen surfaces. The only real melting is from man made salt application or sublimation tomorrow morning when the sun peaks out. At this point, Like what Mike Gorse stated ,I will take 2-3 inch rainstorm over this crap anyday. The dry air preceding every storm since New Years day here has been as so abundant. Its like to get it to snow in Las Vegas for every winter storm event. The models literally cannot handle this scenario on the east coast and they are going wacko with timings of the storm event to total precip amounts. The amount of virga and the progressiveness of the precip is way too fast. The models just cannot see this scenario very well. Its back to old days of waiting for just the right time to get a heavy snow event. Its just not in the cards right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z NAM brings back the Tuesday threat with plowable snow up to the turnpike. 18z Euro and RGEM also looked much better. Don’t write this one off yet! I doubt it trends back to a big one but we could still get some decent snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Since I bailed on the Tuesday thing, I won’t mention the NAM (but you might want to take a peek). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 On 2/9/2025 at 2:41 AM, LVblizzard said: 0z NAM brings back the Tuesday threat with plowable snow up to the turnpike. 18z Euro and RGEM also looked much better. Don’t write this one off yet! I doubt it trends back to a big one but we could still get some decent snow out of this. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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