E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

GFS is north but needed a south trend, then south when we needed a north trend and north when we needed a south trend lol

[JTA66]

I’m out.

 I’ll check back after 2/20 when the real REAL pattern (supposedly) sets up. 
 

Go Birds!!

[jwilson]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So, with next week in the dumpster, how we looking for our big grand finale major drool-worthy loaded powder keg pattern after the 20th? We still good?

I think it still looks promising on the ensembles.  -AO and -NAO with a potential 50/50 locked in and the cold underneath.  Nice building western ridge on the EPS, less so on GEFS.  The setup hasn't changed much, I don't think.

Clearly OP model runs aren't trustworthy even to mid-range lead times.  Next week is volatile.  Hopefully we don't go dry again in the good base, but I guess that's the risk in a Nina.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Remember when all 3 ens means had 7"+ for our region thru next Friday? 

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 hours ago, RedSky said:

GFS is north but needed a south trend, then south when we needed a north trend and north when we needed a south trend lol

Am looking out the window right now to the east and see your namesake in all its glory!

Made it up to 44 yesterday and am currently at my low of 26 for today with dp 12. 

Some stuff outta the 6z GFS at the end of the run.

[JTA66]

We do “end of the run” well.