E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

Well, the 6z euro crushes SE PA and LV so yeah. Something interesting at least looming for Tuesday.  Excited for Saturday night and then the Super bowl for now!

[Heisy]

Yea if we can hold until tomorrow night then I’ll feel much more confident. Feeling like a typical 4-8”er with pops to 8-10”. I do like how EPS has the max stripe right through the city. GFS is right where you want it at this range


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[Violentweatherfan]

The MJO won’t be in phase 8 til the 15th. Might have to wait til next week.

[ChescoWx]

One of the wintrier weeks of weather in several years is on tap for the area with 4 distinct storms with varying types of wintry precipitation. The first one arrive tomorrow afternoon as brief snow, sleet to freezing rain (ZR). This will be a colder event than yesterday with temperatures staying in the 20's for the entire event – maybe an inch or so of snow/sleet before the ZR. The 2nd event arrives on Tuesday and should be mainly snow....this has the potential to be a "plowable" event. More snow arrives Thursday morning, but it should change to sleet and freezing rain and possibly all rain before ending. The 4th event next weekend looks like it will be primarily rain.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Yea if we can hold until tomorrow night then I’ll feel much more confident. Feeling like a typical 4-8”er with pops to 8-10”. I do like how EPS has the max stripe right through the city. GFS is right where you want it at this range


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Agreed. All the ops are exactly where we like to see them at this range. GFS south and dry, Euro more amped and targeting our general area, CMC in the middle. 

One thing I've noted for several years now....when the models get the first run with the Pac dropsonde data ingested they almost always take a weird jump. The gfs did exactly what we would expect. Now things tend to settle down going forward and the actual trends back to what we were seeing take place.

We are in a nice spot tbh.

[Ralph Wiggum]

@Heisyhey BTW, what do you make of the period from the 17th thru like the 24th? The nao retrograding and rotting, the epo pumped, the pna trending positive. Is this all too much of a good thing or are we priming ourselves up for a wild ride?

[Duca892]

Seemed a smidge tiniest bit more north on the GFS for next week? Almost like it just runs into a brick wall and won’t budge more up.

[JTA66]

Not loving the 12z GFS for early next week. Thank God it's the GFS and we still have four/five days to go.

[ChescoWx]

Below are the 1st 3 of the 12z runs - simply looking at model snow amounts by Thursday morning. They are all in basic agreement on moderate snow totals across the area this week.

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed. All the ops are exactly where we like to see them at this range. GFS south and dry, Euro more amped and targeting our general area, CMC in the middle. 

One thing I've noted for several years now....when the models get the first run with the Pac dropsonde data ingested they almost always take a weird jump. The gfs did exactly what we would expect. Now things tend to settle down going forward and the actual trends back to what we were seeing take place.

We are in a nice spot tbh.

Agreed! the models are very consistent in bringing a moderate event between now and Thursday.

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below are the 1st 3 of the 12z runs - simply looking at model snow amounts by Thursday morning. They are all in basic agreement on moderate snow totals across the area this week.

Thanks, Paul. Better looking than I initially thought!

[Duca892]

I hate to ask but are these isolated to just 1 specific threat or cumulative from Saturday-Thursday?

5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below are the 1st 3 of the 12z runs - simply looking at model snow amounts by Thursday morning. They are all in basic agreement on moderate snow totals across the area this week.

 

[penndotguy]

16 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I hate to ask but are these isolated to just 1 specific threat or cumulative from Saturday-Thursday?

 

Just look at the time stamp upper right corner, it says 13th 

[Blue Dream]

Disappointing 12z suite today 

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Disappointing 12z suite today 

I'm afraid to look, so I'm just not going to lol good vibes only this weekend, go birds!

[Blue Dream]

Just now, The Iceman said:

I'm afraid to look, so I'm just not going to lol good vibes only this weekend, go birds!

Haha only one set of runs, but everything looked weaker, more south for Tuesday. 

[RedSky]

Still got crazy uncle Ukie why would he let us down

 

[ChescoWx]

9 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Disappointing 12z suite today 

All looked great IMHO! for a solid snowfall for most of the region

[ChescoWx]

Another solid 12z run....not sure it will happen but suspect most on here would sign up for this....

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Another solid 12z run....not sure it will happen but suspect most on here would sign up for this....

Meh...3 events (Saturday, Tuesday, Thurs/Fri) for a whopping 5"....and thats the Kuchera. We take, but this promising week is falling apart. We still got the Birds tho!!

[RedSky]

All guidance has two big rainstorms next week with seasonable temperatures no glossing over it

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

All guidance has two big rainstorms next week with a seasonable temperatures no glossing over it

 

Yep, and the big epic mint Feb 20+ pattern is looking more muted now too. Oh well. At least we look to be headed for a Nino next year.

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Meh...3 events (Saturday, Tuesday, Thurs/Fri) for a whopping 5"....and thats the Kuchera. We take, but this promising week is falling apart. We still got the Birds tho!!

If we get that much we will be above normal snowfall for the year....people were spoiled by a couple of our snowiest decades during the last 2 complete decades.

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

If we get that much we will be above normal snowfall for the year....people were spoiled by a couple of our snowiest decades during the last 2 complete decades.

Stop being the glass half full guy winters have been garbage since 2018 with the exception of February 2021 we are due lol

[RedSky]

In other news Dr No inland runs the 19th storm in the grand pattern period when suppression should be the primary worry. Refs throw the flag!
 

 

[ChescoWx]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Stop being the glass half full guy winters have been garbage since 2018 with the exception of February 2021 we are due lol

Maybe our cyclical climate change is taking us back to the period from 1967 thru 1977.....now those were lean snow years but still cold like this winter! Warm - cold - wet - dry - snowy - rinse and repeat in our constantly changing climate!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Well, i will help our cause. Im taking the time this weekend to pack up the snowblower, put the shovels into storage....but i will keep the ice melt handy for the 140 minutes I will need it Sunday morning. That should pretty much guarantee us a measurable event soon.

[ChescoWx]

Just now, RedSky said:

In other news Dr No inland runs the 19th storm in the grand pattern period when suppression should be the primary worry. Refs throw the flag!
 

 

a run 12 days out does not a storm make or break.....

[Mikeymac5306]

I mean... After last nights 18Z runs we all wanted that big dog, snow on snow/ 2010 Redux.  Then the next three runs came in and here we are...

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, ChescoWx said:

a run 12 days out does not a storm make or break.....

Yeah ,but there are issues with our epic pattern. Not we have energy and a trof trying to set up in the SW, the EPO ridge is displaced too far West, the waning HL block is in the western side of Canada, and the SER is flexing it's muscle.