E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[Birds~69]

Predicted low tonight 9F....which is a improvement.

[Albedoman]

Right now, Philadelphia is on track to set a new record for driest January on record, assuming less than 0.06" of liquid-equivalent falls before month's end (which right now, looks likely). Allentown (0.02" margin) and Mount Pocono (0.10" margin) are also in the running.   The drought is not gone folks and has been made 100% worse  for groundwater supplies.

[Albedoman]

 

 I said this Tuesday on the central pa forum

The current drought is ignored in the winter as these PADEP hydrologists sit comfortably in their heated offices and never get out to see the real world. They rely on  inaccurate  USGS gauges during frozen conditions  and other BS modeling for drought that are with unproven techniques.  Tell them to go drill a monitoring well and they will always say  what for?  The stupidity burns my friends.

The current snow pack contains snowflakes with little moisture content which does nothing for the drought.  Best evidence in which the hydrologists ignore is the moisture content of the snowpack.  My proof?  Look how yellow the grass was even before the latest snow cover.  The grass has now been covered with some low moisture fluffy snow but in these desert like humidities the last month , sublimation has literally destroy the moisture content of the snow cover and when the grass is exposed again, the grass will be even more yellow- actually brown. But they continue to sit in their offices dreaming of a flood somewhere. Thanks for agreeing with me.

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Right now, Philadelphia is on track to set a new record for driest January on record, assuming less than 0.06" of liquid-equivalent falls before month's end (which right now, looks likely). Allentown (0.02" margin) and Mount Pocono (0.10" margin) are also in the running.   The drought is not gone folks and has been made 100% worse  for groundwater supplies.

Pretty sure we'll get a mid Feb blizzard and all things will be well again. President day or there abouts....30 inches or so.

30F/Super frickin sunny

[Albedoman]

First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period.

•  January 3

The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow. The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains...

•  December 5, 2024

 

 

I have been harping on the Enso going neutral and  about how this winter could be like bitter cold and dry like 94, which I was right.  The next biggie--  a major snow event in and around Valentines day in this current pattern regime.  I am  not really concern at this time about the potential for a significant ice storm for next week as the saving grace is that the moisture is not around to produce .5 to 1" ice accumulations.

[KamuSnow]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Pond around me, kids playing hockey, showed them a thing or two before I fell on my ass ....good stuff. We need a refresher!

Birds!

31F/Sunny

Nice! Still got it! It's been a long time for me - I think my hockey bag is in the basement somewhere, lol. Probably moldy too! You should take advantage while it's still cold enough.

[Birds~69]

41 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Nice! Still got it! It's been a long time for me - I think my hockey bag is in the basement somewhere, lol. Probably moldy too! You should take advantage while it's still cold enough.

Wouldn't say I still "got it "but better off physically then some of my other friends sad to say. Showed them young whipper snappers...

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, Albedoman said:

I have been harping on the Enso going neutral and  about how this winter could be like bitter cold and dry like 94, which I was right.  The next biggie--  a major snow event in and around Valentines day in this current pattern regime.  I am  not really concern at this time about the potential for a significant ice storm for next week as the saving grace is that the moisture is not around to produce .5 to 1" ice accumulations.

1994 while cold was far from dry with over 7" of liquid in January at Coatesville and 6" at West Chester with another 4" at Coatesville in Feb and 3" at West Chester

[Albedoman]

down to 5 degrees at 10:45. heading for another night below zero

[Ralph Wiggum]

ICON has a quick 1-3" clipper next Wednesday for parts of the region.

[RedSky]

12F with some crazy differences on the wunderground sensors locally

[RedSky]

18F wild temp fluctuations, no clouds that I can tell.

 

 

[RedSky]

9F !? Wild

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Next Sunday starting to light up on guidance. EPS and GEFS are showing as wave slides under the region with cold air filtering it atthe same time.

[Mikeymac5306]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Next Sunday starting to light up on guidance. EPS and GEFS are showing as wave slides under the region with cold air filtering it atthe same time.

CMC has been the most aggressive and consistent models to show a storm this winter while GFS has it shredded with light rain. 

[Albedoman]

You are hearing this prediction from me first- mark it down. The potential for major ice jams along the Delaware, Lehigh Schuylkill ,Susquehanna riverine systems with major flooding will be in the media real soon.  Once we get  a week of 45+ highs in these areas with some major rains of 2-4 inches places, like Trenton, just north of Belvidere/ Portland areas on the Delaware, Kline and Adams Island on the Lehigh are going to be the hotspots for flood damage. I have seen before, we will see this time too.

 

[RedSky]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Next Sunday starting to light up on guidance. EPS and GEFS are showing as wave slides under the region with cold air filtering it atthe same time.

Looking like rain to Lake Huron today, more patience

 

[rcostell]

3 hours ago, Albedoman said:

You are hearing this prediction from me first- mark it down. The potential for major ice jams along the Delaware, Lehigh Schuylkill ,Susquehanna riverine systems with major flooding will be in the media real soon.  Once we get  a week of 45+ highs in these areas with some major rains of 2-4 inches places, like Trenton, just north of Belvidere/ Portland areas on the Delaware, Kline and Adams Island on the Lehigh are going to be the hotspots for flood damage. I have seen before, we will see this time too.

 

Respectfully disagree, as we stand now.    Current low streamflow (drought conditions) and an unimpressive snowpack would work against "major" (as you state) or for that matter, substantial ice jams unless extremely heavy rains manifest.  (We spend a lot of time near/in the Au Sable river in the eastern Adirondacks, where ice jams with resultant flooding are all too common.  Different environmentals at work there than here.   

[Duca892]

It too early to start saying winter looks like it may be dead or going into hibernation for a while with snow lol 

[Mikeymac5306]

Pretty significant changes on the overnight and morning model runs.  Track time. 

 

Go Birds! That is all! 

 

[ChescoWx]

Go Birds! Near normal late January temperatures today through Tuesday. We then see one above normal day on Wednesday with temps in the mid-40's before we turn back to below normal temperatures to close out the work week. The chances increase by next weekend of a wintry mix of snow to freezing rain to rain.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Go Birds!