Violentweatherfan Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:37 PM Another week of “MASSIVE BLIZZARD COMING” barrage of YouTube thumbnails on the way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Sunday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:42 PM That GFS drops a solid 1"+ of QPF in some locations along I-95 in only 3 hours. That, at a minimum in such a dynamic storm, would drop like 15 inches or more of snow in only 3 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM 2 minutes ago, Newman said: That GFS drops a solid 1"+ of QPF in some locations along I-95 in only 3 hours. That, at a minimum in such a dynamic storm, would drop like 15 inches or more of snow in only 3 hours With a storm that intense and close to the coast, wouldn’t there be mixing issues. I know it’s fantasy land but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Sunday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:49 PM It’s gotta be an intern running the GFS and just having a good laugh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Sunday at 10:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:53 PM 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: With a storm that intense and close to the coast, wouldn’t there be mixing issues. I know it’s fantasy land but just saying. Verbatim if we took the GFS as is, it actually reaches the latitude of about the DelMarVa and then gets kicked east. It's almost a perfect track for the Mid-Atlantic states. You can actually see a warm nose/WAA in Philly at 850mb, the flow off the Atlantic would certainly bring mixing issues into play for those over the coastal plain. But at this juncture it doesn't matter as you said, let's get the storm to solidify on models first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Sunday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:54 PM Prepare for battle men... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Sunday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:17 PM As of right now, I would lean still towards this being a Mid-Atlantic special as compared to an I-95 bomb up the coast to Boston. If there's no phase, well then we have no storm. If there is a phase, the decaying NAO block and 50/50 low should limit how north this got AND there appears to be a kicker wave on it's heels coming down the ridge over the west coast. Anything can happen, but just my early thoughts. We'll see lots of shifting around, probably some good and bad, in the coming days. I would be shocked if the current storm cyclogenesis process looks the same in 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:30 PM 47 minutes ago, Newman said: That GFS drops a solid 1"+ of QPF in some locations along I-95 in only 3 hours. That, at a minimum in such a dynamic storm, would drop like 15 inches or more of snow in only 3 hours Back in 1983, Allentown, at the height of the February blizzard, had two consecutive hours of 5"/hour snow rates. I've never seen it snow so hard in my life, before or after. Visibility was less than the worst pea soup fog. I'm guessing about 100 to 200 feet at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Sunday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:38 PM 44 minutes ago, Newman said: Verbatim if we took the GFS as is, it actually reaches the latitude of about the DelMarVa and then gets kicked east. It's almost a perfect track for the Mid-Atlantic states. You can actually see a warm nose/WAA in Philly at 850mb, the flow off the Atlantic would certainly bring mixing issues into play for those over the coastal plain. But at this juncture it doesn't matter as you said, let's get the storm to solidify on models first. Can you post that map with the warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Sunday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:40 PM 54 minutes ago, Newman said: That GFS drops a solid 1"+ of QPF in some locations along I-95 in only 3 hours. That, at a minimum in such a dynamic storm, would drop like 15 inches or more of snow in only 3 hours 15 inches in 3 hours would make my head explode... from there I would light myself on fire and jump out the window. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Sunday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:50 PM 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 15 inches in 3 hours would make my head explode... from there I would light myself on fire and jump out the window. Now why would you do something like that? You'd melt the snow.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:54 PM 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Now why would you do something like that? You'd melt the snow.... Just a little spot but damn 15" in 3 hours, that's insane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Monday at 12:00 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:00 AM 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: It’s gotta be an intern running the GFS and just having a good laugh. My bad, hit the wrong button. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Monday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:02 AM 20 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Can you post that map with the warm nose I was just looking at the sounding at PHL around the height of the storm. You can see that warm nose at 850. The column is still below freezing verbatim, but in reality we all know how these things go if they're that tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted Monday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:02 AM 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Just a little spot but damn 15" in 3 hours, that's insane.. Yeah, it sure is. It would almost be like watching a time lapse video in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Monday at 12:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:04 AM Just now, Newman said: I was just looking at the sounding at PHL around the height of the storm. You can see that warm nose at 850. The column is still below freezing verbatim, but in reality we all know how these things go if they're that tucked. I was just thinking it should pull warm air off the ocean, but maybe not with temps BN As always thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:05 AM Just now, Voyager said: Yeah, it sure is. It would almost be like watching a time lapse video in real life. So true. Even 2" an hour is incredibly heavy. Imagine 5" an hour for 3 hours straight.. crazy nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:07 AM CMC says what Storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:09 AM Just now, Franklin0529 said: CMC says what Storm? As does the Ukie. Euro shoves it off the VA coast So the GFS has been the only consistent model with this major storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Monday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:19 AM Damn, the NY forum already created a topic. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:34 AM Well, I'm sort of with Neuman on this one ...also the reason I posted that silly YouTube meme earlier. This can only get so far North even with a full clean phase. Tomorrow is PRIME example. The pattern isn't really changing much at all between tomorrow and the weekend. 50/50 locked in and displaced a bit too far SW thus confluence not in a prime spot for us. Sure it could change and shift. But with so much guidance (ens) in sync wrt those features, going to be a bit of a challenge. I'm also a believer in atmospheric memory. And while we will continue to see snow this winter, have a gut feeling this will be a Mid Atlantic winter to remember. Hopefully they share a little, im not greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Monday at 01:07 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:07 AM Follow the pattern, let’s see if the cold dry air consuming tonight and tomorrow’s QPF isn’t as advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Monday at 01:26 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:26 AM 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: Damn, the NY forum already created a topic. They’ll be up to 17 pages by tomorrow morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 AM Interestingly, the 18z Euro AI was pretty close to the GFS wrt the Jan 11 thing. Just feels the pressure from the flow around the 50/50 and the NAO ridge and is S and E barely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 AM 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: They’ll be up to 17 pages by tomorrow morning. Those folks in that forum are crazy ape shit nuts.... I try to stay away. 25f at 9:40 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 04:17 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:17 AM Pretty sure they Mid Atl is gearing up for an historic week. 1-2 punch i coming and this makes perfect sense given the high lat pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted Monday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 AM 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty sure they Mid Atl is gearing up for an historic week. 1-2 punch i coming and this makes perfect sense given the high lat pattern Heard the Canadian now has the storm. Should be a very interesting week of tracking. Yes the typical rollercoaster is likely, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 04:30 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:30 AM 7 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Heard the Canadian now has the storm. Should be a very interesting week of tracking. Yes the typical rollercoaster is likely, lol. Canadian mirrors the GFS. Not sure it will be able to get too far N based on 500mb before exiting stage right. There is a kicker right on it's heels on both models. That's a classic Mid Atl MECS look imo. But we will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 04:34 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:34 AM We need this thing to phase and deepen as early as possible with the kicker right on its heels. A more N-S ridge axis in the west would help too. Otherwise it grazes us and crushes the DMV area again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:38 AM 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: We need this thing to phase and deepen as early as possible with the kicker right on its heels. A more N-S ridge axis in the west would help too. Otherwise it grazes us and crushes the DMV area again. Hopefully we get more accumulating snows. I'm not greedy on how much. Ens means all look to relax and reload for a bit after that threat. Might need to be really patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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