jwilson Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM 5 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Soo February 2010 Media Delaware County picked up 23” of snow with winds gusting to 40-50 mph as the storm pulled away; not sure this set up will be anything like that. We have a relatively fast moving running under the block instead of into the block from the southwest. All in all snow is snow we shall focus on appetizers on Friday with arrival of the “real” cold air then hopefully the main course on Monday fingers crosse. Sorry, I only meant in regards to the tight gradients. I was picking up half of the official Philly measurements in Dec. 2009 and the first February storm only 17 miles away as the crow flies. I've been longing for a large-scale overrunning event ever since. Even in 2016 there was another tight gradient in my area (wasn't in Philly for that storm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Thursday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:17 PM 1 hour ago, Newman said: Wasn't there that surprise storm in February(?) with the intense fronto death band that dropped nearly a foot across eastern Berks and Montgomery County? Definitely not a region wide event, but I think that happened for my folk in Fleetwood last year. Speaking of fronto bands, the 18z NAM is showing that 850mb fronto band as MGorse was mentioning for tomorrow's sneaky event. Seems like quite the dynamic environment with steep llvl lapse rates Yup I believe it was in February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Thursday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:24 PM 5 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Soo February 2010 Media Delaware County picked up 23” of snow with winds gusting to 40-50 mph as the storm pulled away; not sure this set up will be anything like that. We have a relatively fast moving running under the block instead of into the block from the southwest. All in all snow is snow we shall focus on appetizers on Friday with arrival of the “real” cold air then hopefully the main course on Monday fingers crosse. Amazing how immediately after those storms, the snow just shut off. We got a smaller event here on 2/26/2010, but places south, like Baltimore and Wash DC, got shut out on that one. Things turned warmer in March, and by the first week of April, it felt like summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:38 PM 13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Amazing how immediately after those storms, the snow just shut off. We got a smaller event here on 2/26/2010, but places south, like Baltimore and Wash DC, got shut out on that one. Things turned warmer in March, and by the first week of April, it felt like summer. Yea 2009-2010 definitely extreme with our 78” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Thursday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:39 PM 34 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z GFS with another jump north. 6-10” event up to the Lehigh Valley. It's on. I'm almost nervous of much more north movement lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Thursday at 10:57 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:57 PM 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's on. I'm almost nervous of much more north movement lol. 12 more hours and we’ll be rooting for stronger confluence 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Thursday at 11:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:15 PM 17 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 12 more hours and we’ll be rooting for stronger confluence As long as we are in the right side of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:09 AM 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: Yup I believe it was in February It was February 13th 10.5" at East Nantmeal / 9.3" West Caln and up in Berks County at Huff's Church 9.4" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:11 AM Double digits for NW Chesco......if you choose to believe in model snow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 12:20 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:20 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:25 AM 3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: guess we go with the higher map lol ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Friday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:38 AM It's comical to read each subforum, new york, mid Atlantic and us flipping out/worry over every run. My gut feeling is it'll be a nice event but nothing historic.. I'm fine with a 3-6 incher if that's the case. Plow trucks need a little work out.... And we must have a million tons of salt and brine to use up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Friday at 12:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:53 AM I have repeatly posted the last 3-5 days, plz wait until the 0z runs tonight. Thats where the W PAC data gets really ingested into the models for the first time. Anyone analyzing every 4-6 hour model run will work themselves into an utter panic attack. This is from 30+ years of modelology experience. Tomorrow nights 0z runs should be quite exciting after this clipper swings by and leaves a trail of bread crumbs to follow for the next snow event. Thats where the true path should come to fruition for next weeks storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 12:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:56 AM 33 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: guess we go with the higher map lol ratios I do think with colder storms the Kutchera does a better job with the ratios but it is not available on the ensemble runs....the ensemble did move a bit north again from the 12z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted Friday at 12:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:58 AM 19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: It's comical to read each subforum, new york, mid Atlantic and us flipping out/worry over every run. My gut feeling is it'll be a nice event but nothing historic.. I'm fine with a 3-6 incher if that's the case. Plow trucks need a little work out.... And we must have a million tons of salt and brine to use up. It’s nothing new that these storms keep pushing north. So I’d be worried too in the mid ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Friday at 01:00 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:00 AM Just now, anthonyweather said: It’s nothing new that these storms keep pushing north. So I’d be worried too in the mid ATL Mid-Atlantic, definitely! They seem to get screwed all the time.. us, sometimes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Friday at 01:02 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:02 AM I do think with colder storms the Kutchera does a better job with the ratios but it is not available on the ensemble runs....the ensemble did move a bit north again from the 12z runFrom the Mets on phillywx kuchera less reliable this event vs Cobb. Ratios right now been 8-10:1 using Cobb. I think a solid 4-6” call is proper at this stage, we’ll probably see a WSW for the area since there will be a chance for 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:03 AM Just now, Heisy said: From the Mets on phillywx kuchera less reliable this event vs Cobb. Ratios right now been 8-10:1 using Cobb. I think a solid 4-6” call is proper at this stage, we’ll probably see a WSW for the area since there will be a chance for 6+ . Why's that Heisy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Friday at 01:04 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:04 AM I’d also bet we see a fronto band go much farther N than modeled. So places in N and North Central PA prob get a mesonband that piles on up there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 01:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:05 AM Just now, Heisy said: I’d also bet we see a fronto band go much farther N than modeled. So places in N and North Central PA prob get a mesonband that piles on up there . Yeah, they always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Friday at 01:05 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:05 AM Why's that Heisy? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 01:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:06 AM 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: From the Mets on phillywx kuchera less reliable this event vs Cobb. Ratios right now been 8-10:1 using Cobb. I think a solid 4-6” call is proper at this stage, we’ll probably see a WSW for the area since there will be a chance for 6+ . There is no right or wrong but in most situations I have found the K method is usually at least an improvement over 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Friday at 01:07 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:07 AM 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: From the Mets on phillywx kuchera less reliable this event vs Cobb. Ratios right now been 8-10:1 using Cobb. I think a solid 4-6” call is proper at this stage, we’ll probably see a WSW for the area since there will be a chance for 6+ . That's how I see it.. 32° f currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Friday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:21 AM Tomorrow night's event - this is only out to 10pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 01:23 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:23 AM 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d also bet we see a fronto band go much farther N than modeled. So places in N and North Central PA prob get a mesonband that piles on up there . Keep in mind if what you say is true about a fronto meso band going further north there will be an area of subsidence and dry slot rip off so watch out for that as the more finer details come into play we will have no clue about that until Saturday Night I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 01:28 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:28 AM 19 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Tomorrow night's event - this is only out to 5pm tomorrow This here holds the clues to Monday no doubt. This above is not nearly as robust as the run of the HRRR from around 3 pm today and even this is bouncing around a bit and we are within 9 hours of the event. Then it is the HRRR with its wild swings run to run. That band there shifted a good 30-40 miles north. I bet we see the models at 0z tonight all shift at least 5-15 miles further north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Friday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:31 AM 9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Tomorrow night's event - this is only out to 10pm tomorrow Decent chance of seeing some squalls I would think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted Friday at 01:51 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:51 AM Ok. So. I've been a winter weather enthusiast for a pretty long while now. I'm familiar with Kuchera, but what's this new "Cobb" thing everyone's suddenly on about? I don't recall anyone mentioning it before now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted Friday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:10 AM 24 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Ok. So. I've been a winter weather enthusiast for a pretty long while now. I'm familiar with Kuchera, but what's this new "Cobb" thing everyone's suddenly on about? I don't recall anyone mentioning it before now. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf And here's a comparison of several methods. I found the colored charts about halfway through pretty eye-opening: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/55878/noaa_55878_DS1.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Friday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 AM We were about to get NAM'D good but the run ended 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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