The Iceman Posted Thursday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:02 PM 39 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: GFS and Canadian look great. This is a warning level event for all of us with another 40-50 mile tick north. Which I think is fairly likely given how these systems usually trend. Agreed. I really like where we sit right now, thinking this has a terrific shot at being a region wide warning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Thursday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:24 PM 20 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Agreed. I really like where we sit right now, thinking this has a terrific shot at being a region wide warning event. Yeah I think this is ticking up and down next 24 hrs and after 12z tomorrow we can start to nail down the bullseye areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Thursday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:27 PM 23 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Agreed. I really like where we sit right now, thinking this has a terrific shot at being a region wide warning event. Our last region-wide warning event was the January 2016 snowstorm, correct? I know it we didn't get it in 2021 (the coast was outside of the warning zone) or 2022 (north and west of PHL was outside of the warning zone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:08 PM Feels like pulling teeth with the euro giving only the slightest nudge north with the snow shield. CMC the same as 0z. UKMET slight improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Thursday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:10 PM 43 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Our last region-wide warning event was the January 2016 snowstorm, correct? I know it we didn't get it in 2021 (the coast was outside of the warning zone) or 2022 (north and west of PHL was outside of the warning zone). Out here in Berks County I think last year we did have one warning type event I believe we got 7.5 our threshold is 6”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Thursday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:15 PM 4 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Out here in Berks County I think last year we did have one warning type event I believe we got 7.5 our threshold is 6”+ Jan 6-7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Thursday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:52 PM 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Our last region-wide warning event was the January 2016 snowstorm, correct? I know it we didn't get it in 2021 (the coast was outside of the warning zone) or 2022 (north and west of PHL was outside of the warning zone). I think one of those March 2018 bombs were WSW's for everyone but it could have been rain at the coast, I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM 40 minutes ago, RedSky said: Jan 6-7 Yeah that one started out really pretty, and at least we got snow TV most of the day before the rain started. I think we have a couple of slushy inches by the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM Is it me or is today windier than yesterday—the day WITH the wind advisory? We’re still 4 days out, nudges & ticks are good. We don’t want wild swings. Patience! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Thursday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:01 PM 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: Jan 6-7 Feb 13th last year 10.5" of snow - winter storm warning with that one for Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:03 PM 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Feb 13th last year 10.5" of snow - winter storm warning with that one for Chesco Think we got like 3” from that down here just trying to remember off the top of my head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk1127 Posted Thursday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:34 PM the new HRRR for tomorrow afternoon is lookin juicy for SEPA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Thursday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:41 PM 6 minutes ago, cmk1127 said: the new HRRR for tomorrow afternoon is lookin juicy for SEPA Jackpot of half a foot in Chesco. This would be quite the surprise event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Thursday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:42 PM Since 2020 below are the biggest snow events Jan 31 - Feb 2, 2021 - 16.6" East Nantmeal / 13.5" East Vincent / 12.2" East Coventry Feb 13, 2024 - East Nantmeal 10.5" / West Caln 9.3" / Warwick Park 8.0" Feb 7, 2021 - 8.8" East Nantmeal / 8.3" Elverson / 6.0" Exton Dec 17, 2020 - 9.6" Elverson / 9.3" East Nantmeal / 8.2" East Vincent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:44 PM 8 minutes ago, cmk1127 said: the new HRRR for tomorrow afternoon is lookin juicy for SEPA Looks like a bit of frontogenesis forcing hmm... could be a quick 3" pop for places in Delaware County centered on Newtown Square to Media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Thursday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:48 PM 5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Jackpot of half a foot in Chesco. This would be quite the surprise event. Crazy, i know nobody is expecting any snow so even 1-3" will catch a lot of people off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmk1127 Posted Thursday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:50 PM And just like that, advisories just went up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Thursday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:51 PM 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Agreed. I really like where we sit right now, thinking this has a terrific shot at being a region wide warning event. Agree. More times than not it ticks N....sometimes it ticks too far N and it's a NE special. I like where we are at... 36F/Cloudy w/wind that drives right through you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Thursday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:51 PM 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Looks like a bit of frontogenesis forcing hmm... could be a quick 3" pop for places in Delaware County centered on Newtown Square to Media. Yup something to watch as the NAM has an area of 850 mb FGEN strengthening some as it shifts east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Thursday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:53 PM The NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow from 3pm till 10pm see below ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, the eastern shores of Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Thursday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:00 PM 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow from 3pm till 10pm see below ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, the eastern shores of Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. I'm off but a horrible time for commuters on a Friday afternoon or any afternoon. Rush hour mess. Auto body collision centers smiling...cha ching $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Thursday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:06 PM The HRRR radar depicts the snow starting by 2pm across Chesco with the heaviest (see below) at about 5pm.....not a great scenario for rush hour travel if this comes to pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Thursday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:13 PM 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The HRRR radar depicts the snow starting by 2pm across Chesco with the heaviest (see below) at about 5pm.....not a great scenario for rush hour travel if this comes to pass! Looks rather dynamic actually not just a weak sauce storm gliding through. Center of a low just NE of Baltimore. As modeled, this will produce here especially as this looks to develop on the east side of the mountains rather than the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Thursday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:33 PM 3km NAM isn’t as ambitious as the HRRR but it still paints a wide swath of ground whitening snow throughout SE PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:50 PM the latest from the NWS on tomorrow's little shortwave that could...advisories are actually up for 1-2" from Philly metro to about AC and SW of there in PA/DE/MD/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Thursday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:06 PM 2 hours ago, penndotguy said: Out here in Berks County I think last year we did have one warning type event I believe we got 7.5 our threshold is 6”+ Wasn't there that surprise storm in February(?) with the intense fronto death band that dropped nearly a foot across eastern Berks and Montgomery County? Definitely not a region wide event, but I think that happened for my folk in Fleetwood last year. Speaking of fronto bands, the 18z NAM is showing that 850mb fronto band as MGorse was mentioning for tomorrow's sneaky event. Seems like quite the dynamic environment with steep llvl lapse rates 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Thursday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:24 PM ICON hammers SE PA 1/6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Thursday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:34 PM 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON hammers SE PA 1/6 6-12” from Wilmington all the way up to Scranton. Beautiful run! Now if only the other models could follow suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Really good video explaining Confluence and how it can impact accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM 18z GFS with another jump north. 6-10” event up to the Lehigh Valley. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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