E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[RedSky]

KP level dropped to 5 surprised there are reports of lights in Ocean county and Barnegat the last hour

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z euro is a hit for Philly 1/6 big jump n

This is the beginning of a north trend I believe.  Early next week storm is contingent on the gusty winds and storm tonight getting out of the way of the clipper coming in on Friday.  We just cannot know the final outcome on the models until about 6z Friday, January 3rd.  I truly think we are finally looking at a normal winter pattern here this year.  We shall test that normalcy to see this storm to our south trend north in time.   That is just my gut feeling at this time. I think the 0z models tonight trend north. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This is the beginning of a north trend I believe.  Early next week storm is contingent on the gusty winds and storm tonight getting out of the way of the clipper coming in on Friday.  We just cannot know the final outcome on the models until about 6z Friday, January 3rd.  I truly think we are finally looking at a normal winter pattern here this year.  We shall test that normalcy to see this storm to our south trend north in time.   That is just my gut feeling at this time. I think the 0z models tonight trend north. 

I don't disagree. We are still at range where 50-60 mile jumps with the precip band can occur. Once we get to about 12z Friday those jumps transition to ticks. And by 0z Sunday I think we have a final solution. That's why I don't mind NOT being in the bullseye just yet. We know the drill.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Time to start reeling this one in. 

Next round of following the ping pong ball.  Crazy busy today haven't had time to look at really anything right now cannot say I am surprised with any of this trend. 

[Mikeymac5306]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z euro is a hit for Philly 1/6 big jump n

Surprised it made a jump this early. Was expecting it come Friday

[Kevin Reilly]

Euro last 5 runs courtesy Mid Atlantic Forum:

 

[Tom]

I don't post much here enjoy reading and learning, i do however post for my facebook friends and put out my winter forecast this is what I posted on November 30th  I think I am nailing it so for, this is for NJ 

 

Well it's out putting my neck on the line again, feel good about this even if most if not all are saying the opposite.

WINTER 2024-2025

Positives for a colder than normal winter:

1. Neutral Enso (most are still calling for La Nina I’m not)

2. October snow in Siberia

3. Snow in Southern Canada in November

Neutral conditions for a colder winter:

1. NAO and AO

2. Indian Ocean Temps

Negatives for colder winter

1. QBO

2. Recent history

3. PDO

4. Solar

If you have any questions about the abbreviation above just ask, or google. It’s so much to type how each affect the pattern. Now onto the forecast some will say wish cast. I am going to break the months into 3rds so 1-10, 11-20 and 21 to end of month

December:

1st – 10th

Below normal temperatures statewide not noticeable precip some light snow or rain around 7th – keep in mind normal high temps are in upper 40’s not cold enough for snow.

11th – 20th

First part will be below normal temps chance of coastal storm 13th-15th give or take a day. Likely rain southern half of NJ and Snow Northwest NJ higher elevations.

21st -31st

Near to slightly above normal temps to start (bah humbug, might be cool upper 30’s low 40’s for Christmas not cold enough to support white Christmas. Towards New Years colder than normal temps set in maybe white New Years Eve.

Total snow for Dec.

Northern NJ 3”-6”

Southern NJ 1”-3”

Mountains of NW NJ 4”-8”

Temps overall -1.5°-2°

January:

1st – 10th

Temps much below normal starting just after the new year, will have to factor in any storm that comes up the coast its’ track. It can be very cold for 5 days and storm tracks 100 miles to west will bring rain followed by very cold temps again. So all I can say is when temps fluctuate that is the track storms like to take. I can see 1 maybe 2 storms back to back to start January.

11th -20th

Temps overall below normal with the first half being closer to normal which is near 40° in southern NJ and upper 30’s in northern. The second half of period will be normal to slightly below normal temps.

Back into the freezer, temps much below normal with another 1-3 chances of snow with one being a larger storm

Overall snowfall for January

Northern NJ 12-18+

Southern NJ 10-16+

Mountains 16-24+

Temps -1° -2°

The Plus is if that larger storm does come up coast can add 6-12 to all those totals.

February:

1st – 10th

Below normal temps stormy normal temps are in upper 30’s to near 40 for highs, this in my opinion will make or break the winter season, if we can get it just cold enough for snow will end winter with above average snowfall and colder temps which is something we haven’t seen in years, if it’s 35 and rains well let’s not think about that lol.

11th -20th

Normal temps upper 30’s-low 40’s calm tranquil boring weather

21st -28th

Nothing exciting a storm depending on track rain or snow, temps normal to slightly above normal

Temps +0.5°-+1°

Snowfall huge bust potential

Northern 8-12

Southern 4-8

Mountains 10-16

So overall for NJ

Temps -1­--1.5°

Snowfall

Northern 25-30

Southern 20-25

Mountains 50-60 (not counting what fell in November)

Me versus the weather world, they call for a mild La Nina I say bullshit.

Some will ask if this is a wish cast how can anyone breakdown 10 day periods months in advance. You may be right, however what I do is look at current patterns GLOBALLY not just locally many different year had some of the same patterns they are called analogs. No two years are a perfect match however they can give and do give clues. The larger indices I mentioned at the start are patterns that take many months to change so very confident about them. Obviously the near term is more likely to be accurate however I do like my January thoughts, February is iffy as far as confidence goes.

I have a thick skin so come March (might be snowy lol) come back see how I did.

If you have any questions about anything I said just ask, I like talking weather

[MJO812]

Icon north 

[RedSky]

Flurries

 

[LVblizzard]

Euro ticked south a little. Still 3-6” for most of us.

[Mikeymac5306]

6 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro ticked south a little. Still 3-6” for most of us.

Looks juicier too. 6z GFS comes back a scotch north. 

Tons of suppression long range. Congrats NC/Tennessee. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Not for nothing but I would keep an eye open for a sqaull tomorrow. Looks like enough to coat the roads. 

[penndotguy]

38 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Looks juicier too. 6z GFS comes back a scotch north. 

Tons of suppression long range. Congrats NC/Tennessee. 

I say one at a time I’m not congratulating anyone till it’s happening, I know that’s the look but I’m gonna just let this setup work itself out. Maybe a quick coating tomorrow then possibly plowable snow Monday. 

[jwilson]

Those off-hour Euro runs are looking like the off-hour GFS runs of old.  Almost like the model was experimenting with odd-ball solutions for fun.  Still can't buy into a solution because of the waffling, and the GFS becomes the northern-most model.  Less than ideal, perhaps.

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Those off-hour Euro runs are looking like the off-hour GFS runs of old.  Almost like the model was experimenting with odd-ball solutions for fun.  Still can't buy into a solution because of the waffling, and the GFS becomes the northern-most model.  Less than ideal, perhaps.

Agreed. Some wild swings still happening. Those should ease by 12z tomorrow I would think. NAM looks like it wants to miss us AND most of the Mid Atl and slide way south. Alas, it's the 12k NAM at range. But expect more jumping around around next 24 hours at least.

[ChescoWx]

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

[LVblizzard]

12z HRRR gives us 1-3” tomorrow. Is it on to something? I’m inclined to say no, but we’ve seen these surprise setups produce before.

[soadforecasterx]

Both Nam on board as well with some type of snow setting up just NW of 95 then moving SE around evening rush tomorrow. 

[LVblizzard]

FWIW the 12z NAM at 84 seems in line with most of the other models. Maybe a little more amped.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

FWIW the 12z NAM at 84 seems in line with most of the other models. Maybe a little more amped.

Icon more north

[soadforecasterx]

looks like icon and gfs on board for around an inch of snow for areas around PHL. Could be a nice surprise. 

[Duca892]

I know patience will need to be had…. But for a cold pattern to set in just for suppression depression would be a cruel joke 

[JTA66]

12Z GFS doesn't suck...that's my expert analysis. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

12Z GFS doesn't suck...that's my expert analysis. 

Cmc also

[LVblizzard]

GFS and Canadian look great. This is a warning level event for all of us with another 40-50 mile tick north. Which I think is fairly likely given how these systems usually trend.

[jwilson]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Icon more north

Icon looks a lot like the 0Z Canadian, but it's also much faster - which I think isn't congruous if we're talking about blocking into confluence up north.

Those two models have a more detached look in the northern stream with a vort centered over central Quebec instead of near Montreal as on the Euro and GFS.

The 12Z GFS just rolled out, though, and came a bit more north.  It's actually chasing the Icon a tad in wanting to do more secondary development off the coast in Miller B fashion.

At the surface, the central of the SLP hadn't moved much but you can see at the 500 level how the main vort of influence is further north than at 6Z, which allows our main system to expand a bit more.

That said, the vort in Quebec was also stronger which is cutting the precip shield off right around the Mason-Dixon line.  Philly only improves from 2.4 to 3.9 inches.  An increase, but if you're rooting for a northern outcome it's still a tad lacking.

The 12Z Canadian is also a tiny bit north but not too different from its 0Z run.  Slightly more amped and sharper trough look from our main s/w.

Question is whether this is another northern fringe run or some sort of trend towards a north jog across all models.

Edit - Should add that being on the northern edge might lend to better ratios for the area, but a lot depends on where the frontogenesis sets up, and the confluence itself is going to create a tight gradient of winners and losers. 

Snow growth can get shunted along that line.  Reminiscent of those 2010 storms that were blocked but limited snow depth to the north.

[ChescoWx]

12z runs

[Kevin Reilly]

15 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Icon looks a lot like the 0Z Canadian, but it's also much faster - which I think isn't congruous if we're talking about blocking into confluence up north.

Those two models have a more detached look in the northern stream with a vort centered over central Quebec instead of near Montreal as on the Euro and GFS.

The 12Z GFS just rolled out, though, and came a bit more north.  It's actually chasing the Icon a tad in wanting to do more secondary development off the coast in Miller B fashion.

At the surface, the central of the SLP hadn't moved much but you can see at the 500 level how the main vort of influence is further north than at 6Z, which allows our main system to expand a bit more.

That said, the vort in Quebec was also stronger which is cutting the precip shield off right around the Mason-Dixon line.  Philly only improves from 2.4 to 3.9 inches.  An increase, but if you're rooting for a northern outcome it's still a tad lacking.

The 12Z Canadian is also a tiny bit north but not too different from its 0Z run.  Slightly more amped and sharper trough look from our main s/w.

Question is whether this is another northern fringe run or some sort of trend towards a north jog across all models.

Edit - Should add that being on the northern edge might lend to better ratios for the area, but a lot depends on where the frontogenesis sets up, and the confluence itself is going to create a tight gradient of winners and losers. 

Snow growth can get shunted along that line.  Reminiscent of those 2010 storms that were blocked but limited snow depth to the north.

Soo February 2010 Media Delaware County picked up 23” of snow with winds gusting to 40-50 mph as the storm pulled away; not sure this set up will be anything like that.  We have a relatively fast moving running under the block instead of into the block from the southwest.

 

All in all snow is snow we shall focus on appetizers on Friday with arrival of the “real” cold air then hopefully the main course on Monday fingers crosse.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

12z runs

It’s inching closer and closer for victory in Delaware County.  I’m encouraged it’s probably nudging further north but not too much going forward. 

[Mikeymac5306]

This sucks. On to the Euro...

 

J/K. 

 

Nice move north. Puts Turnpike south almost in the bullseye.