Albedoman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 8 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Both threats are very much alive and well despite the surface output not looking great on a lot of the models. A lot of things would have to go wrong for us to not see anything. I am sticking to 3-5 days out analysis when the W Pac buoy data gets ingested into the models. No sense even lookig at the LR models now until Jan 2. Now is the time when the Euro and GFS will lose the storms or they get squashed by supression or some other model performance stunt as this is beginnning of a really major upcoming pattern change The 0z run on Thursday morning might show what will really happen going into this new pattern. Anything on the models now is just where the pattern is leaning. The cold temps after this pattern gets set in is what concerns me. I see a huge CAD event aiming for us toward the 20th time frame in our area as these LP's are finally to form along the SE Texas coast as stated in an earlier post with the deep cold and a potential deep snow pack in place. I do not like ice storms like 94. Salt shortages may become an issue again by mid February if this cold pattern stays put This potential salt situation reminds me of the TP hoarding syndrome in 2020 with COVID. A lot of salt will be needed with the cold temps in place unlike previous years. Many municipalities will be ordering more salt which will become problematic as these same municiplaities will be ordering the salt at the same time. Be prepared for long lines at the car washes on sunnier warmer days and salt being gone at places like home depot. This situation with the deep cold/snow pack is exactly what I stated several months ago that would occur when I said the La Nina was weakening going into a neutral pattern. Many posters disagreed. I go by past weather history patterns and events , not just modelology. All it takes is a major pattern change and that is coming next week. The drought conditions are finally but slowly starting to relax now has ralso eally demonstrated this weakening LA Nina pattern too as this new pattern neutrality will eventually break the current drought by the end of Feburary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I know we were told not to read the models at this range (^^^) but we are closing in on a SECS for parts of the region for Monday-ish. ICON shifted the heaviest banding precariously close to the region. Upper levels are beginning to trend favorably with better confluence, better.nao position, and a better positioned and strength 50/50. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know we were told not to read the models at this range (^^^) but we are closing in on a SECS for parts of the region for Monday-ish. ICON shifted the heaviest banding precariously close to the region. Upper levels are beginning to trend favorably with better confluence, better.nao position, and a better positioned and strength 50/50. Buckle up. As suspected the 12z GFS presents it's suppressed version....big snows all the way down in NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: As suspected the 12z GFS presents it's suppressed version....big snows all the way down in NC.... GFS has been all over the place. Euro and ICON have been steadfast. Not saying either is correct, just noting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS has been all over the place. Euro and ICON have been steadfast. Not saying either is correct, just noting. Truth! I always expect suppressed GFS runs with any potential east coast events. I suspect it comes north again at 18z but book another suppressed version like this one by Thursday or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 We don't want to be too suppressed like this run shows correct? I mean a little bit and theres plenty of time to tick north. Too much makes it look it a complete miss. CMC shows a no miss for 1/6 As does the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12z Euro also has a suppressed solution with nada for the Sunday/Monday event..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 That 12z Gfs run was gross. Fridgid and pretty bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 38 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: We don't want to be too suppressed like this run shows correct? I mean a little bit and theres plenty of time to tick north. Too much makes it look it a complete miss. CMC shows a no miss for 1/6 As does the UKIE When you needed a euro north trend and it goes 50 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 UKMET schooled the others once last winter if I remember right, uncle ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 48 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: We don't want to be too suppressed like this run shows correct? I mean a little bit and theres plenty of time to tick north. Too much makes it look it a complete miss. CMC shows a no miss for 1/6 As does the UKIE 13 minutes ago, Duca892 said: That 12z Gfs run was gross. Fridgid and pretty bone dry 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: UKMET schooled the others once last winter if I remember right, uncle ftw The chances this 12z run of models is the actual solution.....slim and none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The chances this 12z run of models is the actual solution.....slim and none! Yep! Just the ebb and flow of each model OP run is what makes everything interesting. Still 6 days away from this and The guidance is telling me is a lot better than each OP run. No need to jump after one failed run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 UKMET has been getting good grades it's on the Deans list compared to the GFS. Of course the ECM has had top grades recently but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 UKMET fantasy map https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024123112&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ukmo_global ICON is half decent we have a camp woohoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It depends who plays quarterback for the Eagles on Sunday. If it's Kenny, then sorry, no snow. However, if it's Jalen or Tanner, then we will get a snowstorm on Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Winds howling quite a bit within the past hour... 53° mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 hours ago, RedSky said: UKMET fantasy map https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024123112&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ukmo_global ICON is half decent we have a camp woohoo I’d sign up for that result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 ICON says yes to the Wiggum Rule on Friday following the 60 degree temps on Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 50F down from a high of 55F storms look to be approaching from the SW winds picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 58 minutes ago, penndotguy said: 50F down from a high of 55F storms look to be approaching from the SW winds picking up Approaching rather quickly.. pick up your booze while you can! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Arctic highs on an assembly line south January is going to be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Arctic highs on an assembly line south January is going to be brutal That's great and all but we still need that snow stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 49f a few downpours. Thunderstorms rotating up from the South to due north wild!!!! We have thunder here. Wind here at the surface at the moment is out of the North but thunderstorms are heading due south to north interesting. Pretty dynamic set up if you ask me. Also, models are completely clue less of what to do beyond say next 1-3 days let alone a week out. This dynamic storm here tonight will have a lot to say as to what confluence is set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 49f a few downpours. Thunderstorms rotating up from the South to due north wild!!!! Wind here at the surface at the moment is out of the North but thunderstorms are heading due south to north interesting. Several thunderstorm warnings down south so we may be in for something pretty good.. 50 f. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 48f summer like downpours thunder and now some hail to boot wild stuff! That's a pretty good bow echo going through the Chesapeake Bay right now rotating and make the turn NNE wow!! Dynamics at work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 47F temps dropping nicely, storms just to the South moving North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Thunder and showers going on, 50 f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Thunder and stuff. Champagne bottles falling from the sky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Thunder here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:02 AM Lightning strike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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