E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[Mikeymac5306]

5 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The 00z run will probably have nothing. 

I mean the Euro had a similar monster storm last week so yeah. 

 

At least the signals have been consistent for a while now.  

[Birds~69]

22 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Heavy drizzle 47f humidity 99% dew point 46f 

 

total rainfall: 0.51”

I don't know what the hell this is? Heavy drizzle, light rain, something else? Fog rolling in?

Stephen King movie The Mist?

[JTA66]

54 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The 00z run will probably have nothing. 

Ah, I see what you did there…the old, double-reverse jinx 

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

The 00z run will probably have nothing. 

The 3-5  trusted w pac buoy data has not even been ingested at 10 days. I will not take until five days from the event  I have been burned plenty of times.

[Birds~69]

Fog and stuff starting to roll in..... hazy looking at the street lights.

[MGorse]

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Ah, I see what you did there…the old, double-reverse jinx 

Umm, sure. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I didn’t want to say anything and jinx it. 

I'll start a thread

[JTA66]

40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'll start a thread

Gas up the snowblower while you’re at it 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, JTA66 said:

Gas up the snowblower while you’re at it 

Did that earlier. Ran a cycle of seafoam thru to clean the gunk out of the carb

[LVblizzard]

Some really thick fog in and around Allentown tonight. Visibility down to 1/4 mile in spots.

That GFS is very intriguing. Meanwhile the Canadian looks like it would focus on the second piece of energy around 1/9-1/11. Tonight’s Euro should be fun!

[LVblizzard]

0z Euro is a flat out NUKE for this entire subforum!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro is a KU textbook storm between 1/7-1/10...2.5 feet Philly proper lol.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It hasn't snowed on December 29 in a long time. I know it hasn't since at least 1992, when my sister was born.

The closest was in 2000, when it snowed on December 30. (The Eagles won a playoff game at the Vet, in the snow, the following day. Hey, remember when the playoff games were in December?)

I'll be at the Eagles game today, no snow again.

[Mikeymac5306]

Looks like the 06 runs back off the nuke and put emphasis on the 1/6 event.  We all know the OP runs will change as we roll along. The ensembles still have everything in place for two storms from 1/6-1/11

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Looks like the 06 runs back off the nuke and put emphasis on the 1/6 event.  We all know the OP runs will change as we roll along. The ensembles still have everything in place for two storms from 1/6-1/11

It's differences in wave timing and separation. Chance of 2 storms that hit that same areas in the 1/6-1/10 arent great, just mho.

What the ensembles are showing as 2 diff storms are actually: an earlier storm around the 6-7th with the followup being shunted s and e behind the 500mb flow out of the NW...or slower shortwave that has more time to dig as the NAO ridge retrogrades to Davis Strait and creates a euro-type situation centered around the 9th...thus is appears on the smoothed ens means as 2 different back to back storms when in reality they are unclear exactly which of the 2 waves to develop. I mean, my take could be 100% wrong....Feb 2010 happened. 

Not sure we should be rooting for 1 over the other. We likely get a shot at a bigger storm later as the pattern relaxes/reloads...at least that's how these telleconnections have worked in the past. 

[Kevin Reilly]

30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's differences in wave timing and separation. Chance of 2 storms that hit that same areas in the 1/6-1/10 arent great, just mho.

What the ensembles are showing as 2 diff storms are actually: an earlier storm around the 6-7th with the followup being shunted s and e behind the 500mb flow out of the NW...or slower shortwave that has more time to dig as the NAO ridge retrogrades to Davis Strait and creates a euro-type situation centered around the 9th...thus is appears on the smoothed ens means as 2 different back to back storms when in reality they are unclear exactly which of the 2 waves to develop. I mean, my take could be 100% wrong....Feb 2010 happened. 

Not sure we should be rooting for 1 over the other. We likely get a shot at a bigger storm later as the pattern relaxes/reloads...at least that's how these telleconnections have worked in the past. 

All the reasons why when we get a 20"+ storm it is a Special Event!

[Kevin Reilly]

Currently 55f cloudy the sun did make an appearance for about 5 minutes.  

 

Total rainfall from last storm: 0.88" (dumped the gauge for round 2 later today / will dump the gauge for round 3 later this week)

 

Looks like a busted forecast down there in south Florida in Cape Coral where my friend lives.  A tropical low got started last evening and dumped 2-4" of rain area wide to Naples.  Low just made landfall 5 miles north of Naples and is headed east-northeast.  

The forecast for Cape Coral a few showers .10" at 2:00 pm.  Reality winds gusting past 40 mph for a few hours last night and 2-4" of rain.

Just gives you an idea that the STJ may be getting going so one of our ingredients to look forward to down the line.

Blown forecasts to our south sometimes can lead to huge implications winter storm wise up this way at times. 

[ChescoWx]

Most of the area has picked up nearly 1" of rain over the last 3 days. We will finish the year not too far from normal annual rainfall. Today will be our warmest day since December 11th (59.6 degrees). Many spots could hit 60 degrees! Rain chances increase again tonight before we finally see some sun tomorrow. Still mild tomorrow with highs in the low 50's before we see more rain on New Year's Eve. We then start the trend to colder days with temperatures by Friday and next weekend falling below freezing for high temperatures.

[ChescoWx]

45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's differences in wave timing and separation. Chance of 2 storms that hit that same areas in the 1/6-1/10 arent great, just mho.

What the ensembles are showing as 2 diff storms are actually: an earlier storm around the 6-7th with the followup being shunted s and e behind the 500mb flow out of the NW...or slower shortwave that has more time to dig as the NAO ridge retrogrades to Davis Strait and creates a euro-type situation centered around the 9th...thus is appears on the smoothed ens means as 2 different back to back storms when in reality they are unclear exactly which of the 2 waves to develop. I mean, my take could be 100% wrong....Feb 2010 happened. 

Not sure we should be rooting for 1 over the other. We likely get a shot at a bigger storm later as the pattern relaxes/reloads...at least that's how these telleconnections have worked in the past. 

In these situation I like to keep an eye on changes in the ensemble runs (only 12z runs). The trend has been for an increase in median snow on the Euro/CMC and decreasing amounts on the GFS. Looking at the teleconnections I would suspect suppression could be an issue with any significant snow events. Just my 2 cents on what should be a great winter pattern for much if not all of January!

[Kevin Reilly]

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Most of the area has picked up nearly 1" of rain over the last 3 days. We will finish the year not too far from normal annual rainfall. Today will be our warmest day since December 11th (59.6 degrees). Many spots could hit 60 degrees! Rain chances increase again tonight before we finally see some sun tomorrow. Still mild tomorrow with highs in the low 50's before we see more rain on New Year's Eve. We then start the trend to colder days with temperatures by Friday and next weekend falling below freezing for high temperatures.

It's amazing we will finish as you say: "We will finish the year not too far from normal annual rainfall."

Yet Springton Reservoir down here in Central Delaware County is down 20 feet.  

Now with that said with our past 0.88" here and what is to come into the 15 of January I am willing to bet the tables have turned big time.  I am going out on a limb here I think we see 2.5-3.5" liquid between today, December 29th and Wednesday, Jaunary 15th.  I will also go with 8-14" of snow still in that time. 

[ChescoWx]

Very chilly water temps off AC at only 42 degrees this AM....sea breeze has kicked in down the shore and may see temps fall back into the 40's on the beaches

[ChescoWx]

The 12z European as it is now running seems to be showing the suppression issues I would suspect in this pattern.....that said - many runs to go!

[RedSky]

60F

Not on Christmas though