E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

This is now 12 years since our last White Christmas - historically we have a 25.4% chance....

[KamuSnow]

Pretty much ended here, became mostly light snow for the last hour. Calling it .20" of sleet/Snow, brings the season total to 1.6". 

Did manage to scrape up a pile of sugar for the first "snowpile" of the season. So we'll have a snow pile for Christmas! Still have some leftover snow in spots from Friday. All in all I like the wintery weather lead up to the holidays, certainly better than recent years. We'll see how things go after New Years!

[RU848789]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Up to 1/2" in 45 minutes, so 1" is within reach.  Absolutely gorgeous out there.  Snow on top of snow without a single flake melting (27F still) on Christmas Eve, so we will have a White Christmas here with 2-2.5" OTG in most locations here.  The only thing better would be way more snow, but can't be too greedy these days.  

3/4" of snow in 1 hour is a pretty nice rate - beautiful, fluffy dendrites, so I'm guessing we're at at least 15:1 ratios (snow to liquid; typical is 10:1). Almost certainly will make 1" now and that's probably about it. Temp actually dropped to 26F.  Nice view of the pond across the street in the falling snow...

 

[RU848789]

We got 1" - woohoo! Probably will get another 1/4" before it's over in 15-20 minutes.

[penndotguy]

26F snow has ended here in Western Berks, just under .25 here but it’s still snow on snow I still have around an inch left over from Friday night event. We will see what happens after the new year. 

[Kevin Reilly]

All just about over here a few flakes, sleet, pellets, freezing rain drops left 30f dewpoint 24f 0.30" of snow, sleet, light glaze of freezing rain this is exactly what I thought would happen.  The highest I can imagine falling from this band is 1" at best at least down here in this corner of southeast PA.  While precipitating here temp was 27-29f 

 

Total snowfall / Sleet today 0.30"

Total snowfall for the year 1.58" (we are doing better than last year because we had zero in December like most years)

[RU848789]

33 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

We got 1" - woohoo! Probably will get another 1/4" before it's over in 15-20 minutes.

Ended up with 1.1" of new snow, so another overperformer. Roads are very slippery with no melting during this event, which was mostly at 26-27F. This gives me about 2.5" in the front yard, which gets more sun, and 3" in the backyard, which is shadier, so a white Christmas (more than 1/2" OTG at 7 am Christmas morning, technically) is a guarantee.

1.1" + 3.3" the other day and 0.3" in a few small dustings earlier this winter = 4.7", which is about normal for December (NYC's mean snowfall is 4.9", while New Brunswick's is 4.7") and we're unlikely to get more this month.

[ChescoWx]

After our light round of snow this AM we are now at 2.8" of snow this season. This is 51% of normal snow through today (avg. is 5.5") Today will be warmer but still a below normal temperature day with highs well into the 30's to near 40 degrees in lower spots. We turn a bit chillier the next couple of days before a nice warming trend takes us through New Year's Day. We have a good chance of some rain from Saturday night through Monday. Looking at our longer range pattern we should turn quite a bit colder during the first week of 2025.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Although the radar was "bright" over my area in NW Philly, the snow never got above about a SN- so I just measured 1/4".  I didn't see any mixing either nor was there any IP.  It is pretty powdery and if there is any wind that picks up it would probably blow away.

Currently overcast and 29 with dp 26.

[The Iceman]

.5” snow and sleet this morning. Roads were awful this morning at least by me. 3” on the year now. 

[BBasile]

Picked up about 0.1" of sleet with a little freezing rain on top to help out hospital profits today.  30.3F

[Albedoman]

MIller A potentials setting up by mid January. For the first time  in 5+ years, I see GOM lows forming off the SE Texas coast in the LR modeling. The 4 corner lows are dipping down into Mexico , going west into the GOM  and sucking up the moisture from the GOM, then heading NE.  Hope this pattern keeps up.  Rule of thumb for the newbies- If it snows in Memphis/Dallas, we usually get 6+ in of snow here. With the lows  forming and deepening in Southern MS, we stand a good chance of seeing this scenrio unfold. Lets hope  that the CAD situation like 94 does not come a problem if a portion of the Vortex breaks off and hits first. I would love to see a  +PNA and at the same time the GOM lows start producing, then the potential for major snow events increases exponentially.

Yes, this morning is a local traffic nighmare. The salters came by, did not even melt the residential roads.  Hopefully when the sun comes out in a few hours, things will change. Red Sky, I am glad you got your white christmas. Never give up.   I went over the Green Lane reservoir yesterday, I was sick to see how far it is down right now. The drought lives on.  What water remains is frozen, thus no runoff storage possible from any rains after Christmas. The soil is like concrete right now.  We really need a 3 inch rain with 50 degree temps after the  New Year before the next major snow event. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Sadly.....technically not - we need at least 1 inch on the ground at 7am on Christmas morning.....not gonna happen here

Technically, according to Walt Drag, former NWS-Philly/Boston met, who posts in the NYC forum (lives in Wantage) anything greater than 1/2" rounds up to 1" for the purposes of that 7 am measurement.  Guaranteed to have that here with 2-3" OTG now.  

[Violentweatherfan]

This was another over performer at least for my area. 1.2 to 2 inches of fluff

[Ralph Wiggum]

Buckle up folks....January looks promising. 

[Violentweatherfan]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up folks....January looks promising. 

I’d have to say I’m all in. I use the most recent trends and performance of recent events and I believe it will be cold and snowy this winter

[JTA66]

My own weenie rule...if there's snow in any amount in my yard Christmas morning, it's a White Christmas!

(We don't live in Moosonee, beggars can't be choosers.) 

[Mikeymac5306]

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up folks....January looks promising. 

Big dog hunting is official now that Ralph has told us to bukcle up. 

[Chadzachadam]

Got about 0.2" here for a total of 0.8" for the month. It was probably 70/30 snow/sleet, roads were covered but really weren't that slick because it was such a dry, fluffy snow. Up to 34 degrees now with the sun peeking out so the melt is on. I doubt we'll have much left over for Christmas morning.

[RedSky]

.70" of refresher snow on Christmas Eve

3" depth

31F

Most snow on the ground for Christmas since 2009 and 2002. Two great winters followed..

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Big dog hunting is official now that Ralph has told us to bukcle up. 

However, my Christmas thoughts are that this could still move easily to the Ralph let's have patience speech if nothing is showing up by this Friday.

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

However, my Christmas thoughts are that this could still move easily to the Ralph let's have patience speech if nothing is showing up by this Friday.

As in if 12z GFS OP is the way things progress

 

[anthonyweather]

Got a bit over an inch here in Bethlehem 

[JTA66]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

However, my Christmas thoughts are that this could still move easily to the Ralph let's have patience speech if nothing is showing up by this Friday.

I know you know this...let's just get a workable pattern in place, then we can be patient and worry about the deets. As long as the models stay away from depicting a pig ridge over NA east of the Mississippi 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

As in if 12z GFS OP is the way things progress

 

Big Cleveland Steamer on the 8th.   

[ChescoWx]

Below is a list of the greatest Christmas Time snowstorms that occurred between the 24th and 26th here in Chester and Southeast Berks County in the Philly burbs since 1893. The attached photo is from the front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer from Christmas Day 1966. The previous evening delivered the biggest Christmas Eve snowstorm across the area. This was a dynamic storm that included frequent lightning and thunder to go along with the heavy snow. Totals from the 1966 Christmas Eve Blizzard ranged from 10" at Honey Brook to as much as 22" at West Chester. This followed a storm just 4 days earlier that delivered as much as 11" of snow at Devault. Both West Chester and Devault recorded over 32" of snow that snowy Christmas Week! The greatest snowstorm of the Christmas Season delivered even more snow to the area. That storm began at 8am on Christmas Day in 1909 at Coatesville with Mr. WT. Gordon the cooperative observer for the Weather Bureau reporting 13" by 9pm Christmas Night....another 25" would fall between 9pm and when the snow stopped the next morning at 630am. Other large Christmas time snowstorms occurred in 1912 / 1933 / 1961 / 1969 and 2002. Merry Christmas Everyone!!

[snowwors2]

7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Sadly.....technically not - we need at least 1 inch on the ground at 7am on Christmas morning.....not gonna happen here

Success here…

I still have 2”+‼️

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Below is a list of the greatest Christmas Time snowstorms that occurred between the 24th and 26th here in Chester and Southeast Berks County in the Philly burbs since 1893. The attached photo is from the front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer from Christmas Day 1966. The previous evening delivered the biggest Christmas Eve snowstorm across the area. This was a dynamic storm that included frequent lightning and thunder to go along with the heavy snow. Totals from the 1966 Christmas Eve Blizzard ranged from 10" at Honey Brook to as much as 22" at West Chester. This followed a storm just 4 days earlier that delivered as much as 11" of snow at Devault. Both West Chester and Devault recorded over 32" of snow that snowy Christmas Week! The greatest snowstorm of the Christmas Season delivered even more snow to the area. That storm began at 8am on Christmas Day in 1909 at Coatesville with Mr. WT. Gordon the cooperative observer for the Weather Bureau reporting 13" by 9pm Christmas Night....another 25" would fall between 9pm and when the snow stopped the next morning at 630am. Other large Christmas time snowstorms occurred in 1912 / 1933 / 1961 / 1969 and 2002. Merry Christmas Everyone!!

Parents moved into their new Horsham house months prior to the big Christmas snows of 1966. Nothing came close to that for the next 41 years there.

 

[KamuSnow]

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Parents moved into their new Horsham house months prior to the big Christmas snows of 1966. Nothing came close to that for the next 41 years there.

 

I was around for that one, Christmas Eve was on Saturday. I remember Herb Clarke on the Monday before saying "it could be Katy bar the door", lol. Started around 7 am, heard my first thundersnow in the afternoon, measured 20" around 7 pm. Best Christmas ever!

[snowwors2]

Second 7”+ storm @ Down East, Maine cabin this season‼️