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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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18 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Currently in Princeton for work, close to the university. It is ridiculously windy there right now. One gust actually affected my walking to the point where I stumbled a little bit.

Hopefully the flask didn't fall out of your pocket?

Yeah, definitely felt like 30-40 mph gust. Appeared the white dried up salt stuff was blowing around in the shopping center parking lot. Still some mounds lingering...

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The 71/36 rule holds true for the 16th straight year. Average monthly temperature for September and February at PHL since 2009-10:

Sep 2009 - 68.0 Feb 2010 - 31.8
Sep 2010 - 72.9 Feb 2011 - 37.2
Sep 2011 - 71.1 Feb 2012 - 40.9
Sep 2012 - 70.3 Feb 2013 - 35.1
Sep 2013 - 67.9 Feb 2014 - 32.1
Sep 2014 - 70.5 Feb 2015 - 25.8

Sep 2015 - 74.5 Feb 2016 - 38.6
Sep 2016 - 73.5 Feb 2017 - 44.2
Sep 2017 - 71.4 Feb 2018 - 41.9
Sep 2018 - 72.5 Feb 2019 - 37.1
Sep 2019 - 72.5 Feb 2020 - 40.8
Sep 2020 - 69.4 Feb 2021 - 34.2
Sep 2021 - 71.6 Feb 2022 - 39.7
Sep 2022 - 72.1 Feb 2023 - 42.7
Sep 2023 - 71.4 Feb 2024 - 40.1
Sep 2024 - 70.6 Feb 2025 - 35.9

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March sees a rapid increase in our temperatures by the end of the month. We start the month with average high temperatures in the low to mid 40's and end the month in the mid to upper 50's. Following that pattern, we will see well below temperatures today and tomorrow before we rebound to well above normal by Wednesday and then fall back to near normal to close out the work week. We have an excellent shot at some much-needed rainfall this week...arriving Tuesday night and lasting until Wednesday night.

image.png.68add069abe495b917f5a2577f3dd44f.pngimage.thumb.png.78a1103dd1ded5a1879da6b4f7a6f74b.png

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New years eve all over again on  Wednesday evening folks   That is the last time we had t storms and significant rains.  1-3 inches of rain will be a billion dollar rain event for farmers and landscapers in eastern PA and will definitely help this years crops and finally reestablished green lawns again.   However, this rainfall event  will only put a dent in the long term drought but it will be a significant dent in getting water back into the ground. The combination of warmer temps of 50 degrees on Tuesday into the weekend with the heavy rain will thaw out the entire frozen soil profile quickly. With no extreme overnight cold temps like over the past weekend, the greener lawns and budding of trees, daffodils and other bulbs popping up will be noticeable by the end of the weekend.  Their is also a real good chance of a squall line with severe t- storms, straight line winds and a severe t- storm tornado watch being issued.  Best potential weather event all winter.  But after this event, it is  back to the SOS again with wind and dry temps. At least the fire danger will be gone.

 

Once the cold front tracks through the area late Wednesday night,
precipitation will diminish as drier air begins to move in from the
west. In terms of rainfall amounts, expecting between 0.5-1.0 inches
across the Coastal Plain. Across the higher terrain of northeast PA
and NJ, including the Lehigh Valley, rainfall amounts between 1-2
inches are expected. Localized higher amounts could be possible.
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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

New years eve all over again on  Wednesday evening folks   That is the last time we had t storms and significant rains.  1-3 inches of rain will be a billion dollar rain event for farmers and landscapers in eastern PA and will definitely help this years crops and finally reestablished green lawns again.   However, this rainfall event  will only put a dent in the long term drought but it will be a significant dent in getting water back into the ground. The combination of warmer temps of 50 degrees on Tuesday into the weekend with the heavy rain will thaw out the entire frozen soil profile quickly. With no extreme overnight cold temps like over the past weekend, the greener lawns and budding of trees, daffodils and other bulbs popping up will be noticeable by the end of the weekend.  Their is also a real good chance of a squall line with severe t- storms, straight line winds and a severe t- storm tornado watch being issued.  Best potential weather event all winter.  But after this event, it is  back to the SOS again with wind and dry temps. At least the fire danger will be gone.

 

 

In the top 3 "events" this winter. Anything close would be a win...

31F/Sunny

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41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We got this one

gfs_asnow_neus_29.png

Yea right lol…. That set up is so flawed for snow.

1. No cold high up north 

2. primary almost to western PA

3. 981 cruising near DCA ene way too close as warmer air floods off the Atlantic.

4. Oh look a Great Lakes low. 
 

5. sun angle etc relative surface warmth.

 

6. 18z will be 66 and sunny with 25% humidity and west southwest winds gusting 30-35 with scattered fires.

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13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yea right lol…. That set up is so flawed for snow.

1. No cold high up north 

2. primary almost to western PA

3. 981 cruising near DCA ene way too close as warmer air floods off the Atlantic.

4. Oh look a Great Lakes low. 
 

5. sun angle etc relative surface warmth.

 

6. 18z will be 66 and sunny with 25% humidity and west southwest winds gusting 30-35 with scattered fires.

I will one up you and say wind advisory criteria will be met with a brief shower  as the LP moves away . Personally this is graupel  type of storm event as unstable cold air advects. I tell you what really made me LOL almost made me piss my pants was the aftermath of this BS storm event with the temps as seen below.  When is the last time we saw  -4 temps in middle  march? 

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_32.png

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4 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I will one up you and say wind advisory criteria will be met with a brief shower  as the LP moves away . Personally this is graupel  type of storm event as unstable cold air advects. I tell you what really made me LOL almost made me piss my pants was the aftermath of this BS storm event with the temps as seen below.  When is the last time we saw  -4 temps in middle  march? 

 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_32.png

The only time we got those temperatures in March was in 2014 and 2015, and that was early in the month, following historical cold in January and February. Yep, this is not going to happen.

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