E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

We're at the last gasp of winter. For me, it's pretty much overnight storms or bust. Stuff isn't going to stick during the day unless super heavy rates. Overnight the ground is a little more forgiving. But damn, we had the cold weather this winter but not the moisture. Probably vice versa next year just to kick us in the balls once again....

32F/Sunset

 

Well, we got the epic psu event yesterday that partially verified and now we have the great @Heisy storm he has been touting between March 4 and 10 iirc. And Bastardi says a March 1993 is looking likely. So be patient and buckle up. 

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, we got the epic psu event yesterday that partially verified and now we have the great @Heisy storm he has been touting between March 4 and 10 iirc. And Bastardi says a March 1993 is looking likely. So be patient and buckle up. 

I haven't checked in on Bastardi in a long time. Sounds like he's up to his same old antics. Need a storm to start mid-late afternoon then get power hammered overnight and out of here by 7-9am... then gusty winds and maybe a heavy duty afternoon squall to end things...

[Kevin Reilly]

58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, we got the epic psu event yesterday that partially verified and now we have the great @Heisy storm he has been touting between March 4 and 10 iirc. And Bastardi says a March 1993 is looking likely. So be patient and buckle up. 

This pattern that we are in doesn’t even suggest that a March 8th to 14th 1993 type storm is even remotely possible.  March 1993 was a triple phased storm with the mother load of Arctic Air heading to the central Gulf of Mexico …. Right now, and into next two weeks I’m seeing an untimed split flow with zero phasing systems pretty far apart maybe well east there can be a phase but not here right now.   Also, over time we are progressively getting into more and more of a westerly to west southwesterly flow of relatively milder air over time. This is all Bastardi ratings nonsense that happens every year to get the last gasp of ratings for the pay check.

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This pattern that we are in doesn’t even suggest that a March 8th to 14th 1993 type storm is even remotely possible.  March 1993 was a triple phased storm with the mother load of Arctic Air heading to the central Gulf of Mexico …. Right now, and into next two weeks I’m seeing an untimed split flow with zero phasing systems pretty far apart maybe well east there can be a phase but not here right now.   Also, over time we are progressively getting into more and more of a westerly to west southwesterly flow of relatively milder air over time. This is all Bastardi ratings nonsense that happens every year to get the last gasp of ratings for the pay check.

Old fart bastardi just selling hopium. This winter season is finished. Only a Miller A storm event will save it.  Hell, we cannot get a single trough to dig beyond the Mason Dixon line to pull up any moisture in our direction. What we really need is a stalled out LP Miller B event which is much more likely right over the benchmark for longer than 24 hours. WE might be able able to squeeze out a foot of snow. 

[Kevin Reilly]

15 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Old fart bastardi just selling hopium. This winter season is finished. Only a Miller A storm event will save it.  Hell, we cannot get a single trough to dig beyond the Mason Dixon line to pull up any moisture in our direction. What we really need is a stalled out LP Miller B event which is much more likely right over the benchmark for longer than 24 hours. WE might be able able to squeeze out a foot of snow. 

Another issue I’m seeing split flow jet lifting north into Canada precipitation further north jet well south leaving us high and dry with a passing shower or 2 every 4-6 days it’s a drought pattern to boot. 

[snowwors2]

8 hours ago, RedSky said:

The sun is like a million billion giggawatt lazer beam today no shoveling needed, south facing lawns visible again. 30F you would think it was 60F.

 

I’ve had coverage in my backyard since the first snow after that New Year’s rainer…

I’ll have coverage until May at this rate‼️

First photo: 11pm Thursday

[snowwors2]

Second photo: 4pm Friday

[RedSky]

4 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Second photo: 4pm Friday

You have a snow bowl, trees for shade with an open area in the middle to accumulate. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fool me once with the LR gfs snowstorms shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well, I'm back and I'm taking the walk of shame.

[Violentweatherfan]

Sun angle also skews(no pun) 850mb temps as well. Just because 850mb temperature map readings might be below 32 degrees actually temp will be higher.

[Violentweatherfan]

40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fool me once with the LR gfs snowstorms shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well, I'm back and I'm taking the walk of shame.

I don’t think I saw any blocking during any of the LR model runs 

[JTA66]

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fool me once with the LR gfs snowstorms shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well, I'm back and I'm taking the walk of shame.

AND it’s inside 300 hours!

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fool me once with the LR gfs snowstorms shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well, I'm back and I'm taking the walk of shame.

If it holds by this time next week, i'm in!  

[Albedoman]

48 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

If it holds by this time next week, i'm in!  

 

11 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Old fart bastardi just selling hopium. This winter season is finished. Only a Miller A storm event will save it.  Hell, we cannot get a single trough to dig beyond the Mason Dixon line to pull up any moisture in our direction. What we really need is a stalled out LP Miller B event which is much more likely right over the benchmark for longer than 24 hours. WE might be able able to squeeze out a foot of snow. 

I am in too if holds up within  72 hours of the event.  Its is trying to become a Miller A type of event or a stalled out Miller B forming over the Benchmark. If this indeed happened, it would be a HECS or even a KU event.  If Dr. No bites into this GFS playbook  this afternoon, the Hopium will come back alive in the forum . Until then,this is just pure BS. We have all been burned too many times following these potential make believe KU storms only to haves our hopes literally ripped from us time after time and run after run being different results.  This forum is so hungry for a 12+ inch all day snowstorm its really pathetic. What  I want is a drought buster and overall pattern changer as this model run has potential to do both. But one run is not going to do it. When this scenario shows up on my favorite go to the Albedoman's model blend of the 84hr  NAM and the Euro at the same time, then I will surely bite

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fool me once with the LR gfs snowstorms shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Well, I'm back and I'm taking the walk of shame.

67 and sunny that day. 

[ChescoWx]

Happy First Day of Phillies Spring Training Baseball games for those who celebrate!!! Go Phillies!! Well, we finally reach near to slightly above normal temps the rest of this week as we get a brief break from the consistently cold winter weather that has held us in its icy grip since around Thanksgiving Day! Our warmest day looks to be Tuesday where most spots may actually exceed 50 degrees. Here in East Nantmeal we have not enjoyed any days with a temperature that "warm" this year! Maybe we see some rain by Thursday.

[CoolHandMike]

12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

67 and sunny that day. 

34 and snizzle to rain. Then blowing 20-30 the day after. At this point I'm just happy if it's cloudy out.

Maybe we should start a thread and just mercilessly mock this digital snowstorm until then. It'd at least give us something to do.

[BBasile]

26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

67 and sunny that day. 

That's basically what the ECM has, but with convection instead.  lol