MGorse Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 21 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said: Bernie Rayno thinks the 12z NAM might be onto something Or it could be completely wrong. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 26 minutes ago, MGorse said: Or it could be completely wrong. Quite likely! And to be fair he didn't mention the 12z NAM specifically, just said he suspected the precip shield might extend further west in this setup than the global models are suggesting verbatim. NAM is probably just over-amped like usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 18 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said: Quite likely! And to be fair he didn't mention the 12z NAM specifically, just said he suspected the precip shield might extend further west in this setup than the global models are suggesting verbatim. NAM is probably just over-amped like usual Bernie is good at what he does. I used to work with him back in the day. Agree that the NAM is probably overdone with the amplification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, The Iceman said: I wasn’t alive for the 1980s but someone was telling me the other day that this was exactly like the typical 80s winter. Does that track for you old heads in here? Yea but some of those winters had double the snow due to some big hits such as February 11th 1983 and there was a big one mainly south and east January 88 or 89 Wildwood picked up like 26” while PHL got literally flurries before the sun came out we were predicting 3-6 north and west 4-8 in and around the city. So yea 80s were active with some close calls and hits. Think we got 6” right near Thanksgiving in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Overall we were just starting the warming cycle rebounding from our coldest decade ever in the 1970's....while warmer than the 70's snowfall increased almost 11" on average during the decade of the 1980's. While it was snowier it was not nearly as snowy as our last 2 complete decades (2000's /2010's) Again big hits happened and well basically not much after 2016 and 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, Newman said: To be honest, the coastal storm itself is probably long gone at this point for much of the SE PA region. The ULL snows though are very much a plausible possibility with a C-1" Norlun trough now I’m reaching??? Nam sometimes wins with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 hours ago, The Iceman said: I wasn’t alive for the 1980s but someone was telling me the other day that this was exactly like the typical 80s winter. Does that track for you old heads in here? Ez enough to go here and review those winters Lots of cold winters and individual cold winter months with low snow totals. 81&82, 84-86 in particular. Two great area wide storms that decade in 83&87 oops link https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Long range continues to be a complete crap shoot, seeing lots of talk the last two days of the cold pattern breaking down next week much earlier than predicted. Today's GFS drops the arctic hammer AGAIN the first week of March wtf. Just when I was ready for spring warmth. Historic palm tree snow again and in March what gives? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I can't stomach a fourth very cold low snow month make it stop 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea but some of those winters had double the snow due to some big hits such as February 11th 1983 and there was a big one mainly south and east January 88 or 89 Wildwood picked up like 26” while PHL got literally flurries before the sun came out we were predicting 3-6 north and west 4-8 in and around the city. So yea 80s were active with some close calls and hits. Think we got 6” right near Thanksgiving in 1989. I think this is the one where chopper 6 was in the air/clouds showing the dividing line between heavy snow and nothing.You could literally see the line in the air. I was out of my mind seeing SNJ getting hammered and just cloudy at my location (Horsham). Really couldn't understand it at the time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I think this is the one where chopper 6 was in the air/clouds showing the dividing line between heavy snow and nothing.You could literally see the line in the air. I was out of my mind seeing SNJ getting hammered and just cloudy at my location (Horsham). Really couldn't understand it at the time... Actually the sun was out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, RedSky said: Actually the sun was out I remember it breaking through at times but not actually sunny. Maybe it was and I was so depressed I went to bed and called it a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 36 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea but some of those winters had double the snow due to some big hits such as February 11th 1983 and there was a big one mainly south and east January 88 or 89 Wildwood picked up like 26” while PHL got literally flurries before the sun came out we were predicting 3-6 north and west 4-8 in and around the city. So yea 80s were active with some close calls and hits. Think we got 6” right near Thanksgiving in 1989. That would have been Feb '89, I believe. I recall another bust, Jan '85 maybe? Went to bed under a Winter Storm Warning and woke up to filtered sun...such a crushing feeling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12z GFS has an Alberta clipper March 1st, the first clipper in a decade or more lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 42 minutes ago, RedSky said: Long range continues to be a complete crap shoot, seeing lots of talk the last two days of the cold pattern breaking down next week much earlier than predicted. Today's GFS drops the arctic hammer AGAIN the first week of March wtf. Just when I was ready for spring warmth. Historic palm tree snow again and in March what gives? Same dam stuff maybe we are setting up by mid March to early April at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I think this is the one where chopper 6 was in the air/clouds showing the dividing line between heavy snow and nothing.You could literally see the line in the air. I was out of my mind seeing SNJ getting hammered and just cloudy at my location (Horsham). Really couldn't understand it at the time... Yea definitely a tough day for me that day in 8th grade. That was way tougher pull to swallow than what’s going on right now, but honestly looking back on models Friday and where we were potentially headed it’s close! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Same dam stuff maybe we are setting up by mid March to early April at this point. Thats okay- by that point we'll need the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 And the 18z NAM is a tad different. LOL. The main light snow is now focused with the upper-level energy arriving. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Pretty cool video regarding 500mb maps and spring storm/severe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GFS biggie day 10. Only 10 days away again and things come full circle 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: Pretty cool video regarding 500mb maps and spring storm/severe One degree outside weather what a name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 hours ago, RedSky said: 12z GFS has an Alberta clipper March 1st, the first clipper in a decade or more lol That'll be the clipper to finally verify and we will end up 33 and rain probably at our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, RedSky said: GFS biggie day 10. Only 10 days away again and things come full circle That well-respected guy from that other sub forum did say this would be our best pattern all winter thru March 15, so we have that going for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 Maybe we’ll fail at failing for a change. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Long time lurker. This site cracks me up. Great posts. Great comedy. Here’s my dilemma. What model wins 8 days out? GFS or the AI(bee bop bee bop)? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, rickrd said: Long time lurker. This site cracks me up. Great posts. Great comedy. Here’s my dilemma. What model wins 8 days out? GFS or the AI(bee bop bee bop)? GROK/terminator did great with the PD3 fail storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That well-respected guy from that other sub forum did say this would be our best pattern all winter thru March 15, so we have that going for us. Aren't you suppose to be reverse bear hibernating until December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Day 10 fantasy storms!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Mesos are starting to pick up on a norlun feature as the ULL swings through on Thursday. We had one of these about a month ago and it gave us a little over an inch. Wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That'll be the clipper to finally verify and we will end up 33 and rain probably at our latitude. Probably thunderstorms with hail and 40-50 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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