snowwors2 Posted Monday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:49 PM Elliot was a master… I also really loved Joe Bastardi’s (before he started “selling subscriptions” to his own weather company) very detailed analysis of what “could” happen “later this week”…“Katy bar the door‼️” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Monday at 09:59 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:59 PM Dr. Joel Myers founded Accuwx, not Elliot. Elliot was the best met they ever had! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:31 PM Cecily going with zilch for everyone except extreme South Jersey. Even there maybe a coating to a inch or so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:48 PM 18z gfs says march coming in like a lion. March 2 and March 4 respectively. What could go wrong? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:57 PM 22 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Cecily going with zilch for everyone except extreme South Jersey. Even there maybe a coating to a inch or so... AND, kyw radio Accuweather revised:“coating to an inch or two for Philly” and “perhaps several inches south of the city” as of a live update I heard around 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Tuesday at 12:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:00 AM I think we have one elevation driven snow event left in March....which would have to be around 15" to get Chester County to normal (35") for the season....I am not optimistic!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 01:13 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:13 AM 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z gfs says march coming in like a lion. March 2 and March 4 respectively. What could go wrong? The first one there is a non-event like be happy to see flakes falling from the sky total upside for Media, Delaware County would be speckles of white on the grass. The second storm has a bit more west to east potential say 2-4" but again for all we know on March 4th it could be 77f instead. I am done looking beyond three days on the models going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 04:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:22 AM How are we doing with the new ingested data into the models tonight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Tuesday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:28 AM Currently the tally in Fleetwood for the season is ~19.5-20 inches or so. There's been a whopping 12 "events" this winter with measurable snowfall... 11 of those events were 2 inches or less. Only 1 storm, the one on January 19th, dropped appreciable snow with 7.9 inches. Talk about a nickel and dime winter, or maybe more appropriately penny and nickel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Tuesday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:47 AM 23 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: How are we doing with the new ingested data into the models tonight?? Quick glance seems like H5 is improved on almost all models, if the trend continues I'd expect some ticks back NW. However even with improvement still dealing with a lack of PVA getting into the region with the ULL turning neutral just too late 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Tuesday at 05:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:06 AM Quite the h5 look, so close to something big but it'll probably be too little too late. If at this point the ULL/trough was neutral and not slightly positive, you'd be able to scoop up enough PVA to swing it into at least the Philly area. Some very intense curvature vorticity being advected towards the downstream flank of the trough, but that pesky confluence streak in northern Maine is helping to slow how quickly this turns neutral (as well as the fast flow in general). If a long range smoothed ensemble picked up on this exact h5 look, I'd be screaming KU too. But when it came down to it, we were about 12-18 hours off in timing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Tuesday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:07 PM 8 hours ago, Newman said: Currently the tally in Fleetwood for the season is ~19.5-20 inches or so. There's been a whopping 12 "events" this winter with measurable snowfall... 11 of those events were 2 inches or less. Only 1 storm, the one on January 19th, dropped appreciable snow with 7.9 inches. Talk about a nickel and dime winter, or maybe more appropriately penny and nickel Similiar here in Chesco - 13 winter events with 20.4" of snow....but have only used my snow blower for 2 "plowable" events 5.3" on Jan 19th and 3.3" on Feb 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Tuesday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:08 PM If you think this has been an unusually cold winter you would be correct! We are trending toward the top 15 coldest winter in the last 50 years here in Chester County. The pattern continues well below normal temperatures for the rest of this work week. We finally return to near normal temperatures early next week. We look dry for the rest of this week with the exception of a chance of flurries on Thursday. The good news on the drought front is we are running above normal in precipitation so far this month, however it does not look that wet as we close out February and move into the first week of the first month of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM I wasn’t alive for the 1980s but someone was telling me the other day that this was exactly like the typical 80s winter. Does that track for you old heads in here? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM Not sure what model Weather Sentry/DTN uses but they put the snow back on for Thursday allbeit 1 inch of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Tuesday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:31 PM 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I wasn’t alive for the 1980s but someone was telling me the other day that this was exactly like the typical 80s winter. Does that track for you old heads in here? Overall we were just starting the warming cycle rebounding from our coldest decade ever in the 1970's....while warmer than the 70's snowfall increased almost 11" on average during the decade of the 1980's. While it was snowier it was not nearly as snowy as our last 2 complete decades (2000's /2010's) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Tuesday at 02:03 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:03 PM Adding to Paul, the 1980's still featured big time arctic outbreaks. Only one KU in 1983, but plenty of our 3-5, 4-6 inch bread & butter storms with clippers thrown in. After 1987, we began our string of ratters into the early 90's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Even with the Thursday threat pretty much dead, the 12z NAM has still found a way to NAM us. Shifted northwest 50+ miles from 6z and gets warning level snow to Philly. 1 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Wait did we just get NAM'd?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Tuesday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:41 PM 3k is having none of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Did the 12k NAM just give Philly like 8 inches? Lol. Even the 3k NAM, which skunks Philly, shifted quite a bit NW and gives ACY like 4-6. Don't believe it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Tuesday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:54 PM All the other 12z mesos (including the 3km NAM) say the NAM is full of it. As much as I want this thing to come back I can’t trust a model that has done so poorly all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Tuesday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:00 PM Backyard this AM… Hanging VERY tough‼️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM To be honest, the coastal storm itself is probably long gone at this point for much of the SE PA region. The ULL snows though are very much a plausible possibility with a C-1" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Tuesday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:40 PM 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Adding to Paul, the 1980's still featured big time arctic outbreaks. Only one KU in 1983, but plenty of our 3-5, 4-6 inch bread & butter storms with clippers thrown in. After 1987, we began our string of ratters into the early 90's. We had clippers much more often than now and 2-4" - 3-6" was the norm and I would get pissed at only 1-3" in the early to mid 80's. We did have some cold outbreaks during this period as well. (Philly -7, 1/22/84 and 1/17/82) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM Apparently the 12z NAM (12km) is seeing something for Thursday that all the other models are not. I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted Tuesday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:00 PM Bernie Rayno thinks the 12z NAM might be onto something 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Tuesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:02 PM Somehow I still have a little bit of snow left from the 1/20 storm. It never fully went away since it’s been cold and our snowpack has kept getting replenished by small events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Tuesday at 04:13 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:13 PM 19 minutes ago, MGorse said: Apparently the 12z NAM (12km) is seeing something for Thursday that all the other models are not. I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue. Only one sniffing glue around here is the 12k NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Tuesday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:18 PM 10 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Somehow I still have a little bit of snow left from the 1/20 storm. It never fully went away since it’s been cold and our snowpack has kept getting replenished by small events. 1 hour ago, snowwors2 said: Backyard this AM… Hanging VERY tough‼️ Same…Per my earlier post (photo)…White on the ground pretty much since the first snow after the New Year’s rainer! It’s made it feel like a MUCH snowier winter than it’s actually been! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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