Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:24 PM 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12k nam ticked nw....has light snow back into extreme S NJ now lol The trend we have all been waiting for! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 04:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:27 PM 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: The trend we have all been waiting for! Wouldn't get your hopes up. One tick is not a trend but hopefully it's on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Monday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:58 PM no Day 10 storms on the GFS anymore. Sigh. Think this winter is coming to a very quiet swift end 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Monday at 05:05 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:05 PM The models suck, I get that. But what if this was 25 years ago? Maybe they'd still be showing a MECS today and we'd be buckled up doing a weenie dance not realizing a huge rug pull was on the way. Seems things really started going down hill 12z Saturday...5+ days out. Maybe that's the "improvement". idk Just spit balling cause I'm bored and there's nothing to track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted Monday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:08 PM agree, caught it at 5 days out. This wasn't a last second fail and a cautionary tale on long range model forecasting 5+ days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:47 PM 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Wouldn't get your hopes up. One tick is not a trend but hopefully it's on to something... I was being completely sarcastic! These models all of them outside of 4 days are absolute garbage we have been fooled like this about 3 times this year. It is absolutely obvious to me looking at the NAO being + and the storm that cranked through here we are in a very fast progressive flow with things just flying through this pattern DOES NOT support a storm that can drop 1 foot plus on our region. Next, I am concerned for the rapid warm up and the lack of rainfall very concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted Monday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 PM So it the ULL captures the piece of energy too late, therefore not pulling the storm up the coast on the Euro where it showed snow amounts in feet. Ideally where would we like the capture/phase take place. Definitely overland but where Tennessee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 PM 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: The trend we have all been waiting for! The trend we r waiting for is on the gfs....spring pattern appearing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:23 PM 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: The models suck, I get that. But what if this was 25 years ago? Maybe they'd still be showing a MECS today and we'd be buckled up doing a weenie dance not realizing a huge rug pull was on the way. Seems things really started going down hill 12z Saturday...5+ days out. Maybe that's the "improvement". idk Just spit balling cause I'm bored and there's nothing to track. In the overall scheme of things, I'm not so sure this was an 'epic model failure' as some folks are declaring. We are still 3 days from this storm, and the trend to make.it a non-event started over 2 days ago. That's a 5-day lead that this wasn't likely going to work for us here. I think alot.of folks saw those mecs runs last week and locked into them assuming it was a guarantee. In my defense, I pointed out numerous times last week how this had march 2001 similarities ONLY WRT the TPV lobe getting involved and also noted how that variable tends to be misconstrued by guidance at that range and urged caution. Of course I got thown to the wolves for dare thinking such a thing. But I did join the party hoping we could salvage this. Unfortunately it was too late into the game and the writing was on the wall. Said it before will say it again....I do not care if every favorable teleconnection is screaming HECS 14+ days out. We can always get an epic pattern but getting said pattern to produce requires miraculous intervention. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted Monday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:24 PM 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: The models suck, I get that. But what if this was 25 years ago? Maybe they'd still be showing a MECS today and we'd be buckled up doing a weenie dance not realizing a huge rug pull was on the way. Seems things really started going down hill 12z Saturday...5+ days out. Maybe that's the "improvement". idk Just spit balling cause I'm bored and there's nothing to track. Exactly, it would be like re-living the epic March 2001 snow bust. I'd rather the rug be pulled now, not the day of. That was the worst feeling in the world. I was in 7th grade when that snow bust happened, and it really messed me up the rest of that school year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:25 PM 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The trend we r waiting for is on the gfs....spring pattern appearing. I mean it’s coming once we get through this week we enter into a west southwesterly flow of at first normal then sliding above to well above normal in time I would think but we shall see. I honestly don’t care what happens as long as soaking rains or heavy snow return. Obviously you saw me post soaking rains first so you know on what side of the baroclinic zone I’m sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:39 PM The thing with this storm which was mentioned ad nauseum was the delicate balance between the tpv (or lobe of tpv) and the stj wave and how they might interact. This is why I go all march 2001 whenever I see that feature trying to get involved because a miniscule adjustment wrt the timing and Interaction of those features spells massive differences at the surface. That's why you hear me say we are looking at an all or nothing situation. This is the risk we run when getting the tpv involved. But with that said, the potential for a much larger storm exists as well. It's like playing the tables at a casino. You likely won't hit the jackpot unless you go big (involving the tpv)....and 99% of the time you ain't hitting....but that's the risk you take if you want a chance to win big. Or we can play conservative penny slots like we did all winter. All you're gonna win are nickels and dimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 06:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:43 PM 1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said: agree, caught it at 5 days out. This wasn't a last second fail and a cautionary tale on long range model forecasting 5+ days out. This ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:49 PM I would think this winter failed because, in the beginning, it was primarily driven by a fairly significant -EPO phase. I don't think that's the best way to score a more typical east coast nor'easter, largely due to the position of the western ridge axis. It resulted in a numerical +PNA, which is exactly what we want, but I don't think that's the same as a +PNA that's driven more "organically," or at least coupled with an EPO that's more nuanced. The other problem was all high latitude blocking was transient. Any time the NAO or AO spiked negative, it would immediately retreat back into a positive phase. Basically, everything was relying on perfect timing to produce. Much of what was forcing storms under the Mason-Dixon wasn't primarily related to this blocking, either. It was a matter of the cold source TPV getting dumped into the CONUS with regularity because of the intense pacific flow. As others have mentioned, the speed of the pacific flow is what often gums up the works. It also seems to be reducing modeling accuracy, but that's my own speculative deduction (an educated guess). We can get these little events and cold under this regime, but like most Ninas, in general, you're talking about more cold and dry than cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:07 PM 19 minutes ago, jwilson said: I would think this winter failed because, in the beginning, it was primarily driven by a fairly significant -EPO phase. I don't think that's the best way to score a more typical east coast nor'easter, largely due to the position of the western ridge axis. It resulted in a numerical +PNA, which is exactly what we want, but I don't think that's the same as a +PNA that's driven more "organically," or at least coupled with an EPO that's more nuanced. The other problem was all high latitude blocking was transient. Any time the NAO or AO spiked negative, it would immediately retreat back into a positive phase. Basically, everything was relying on perfect timing to produce. Much of what was forcing storms under the Mason-Dixon wasn't primarily related to this blocking, either. It was a matter of the cold source TPV getting dumped into the CONUS with regularity because of the intense pacific flow. As others have mentioned, the speed of the pacific flow is what often gums up the works. It also seems to be reducing modeling accuracy, but that's my own speculative deduction (an educated guess). We can get these little events and cold under this regime, but like most Ninas, in general, you're talking about more cold and dry than cold and snow. Whenever I see -epo forecast my first thoughts go to cold and no big storms. That's your nickel and dime teleconnection in general. As you said, give me an organic +PNA and a -AO. Nao phase isn't quite as relevant as many folks think wrt snowstorms here. It can snow in either phase. A -nao will tend to slow a storm down for sure tho. In short, I'm a firm believer PAC>ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:36 PM (KYW) Accuweather still calling for 2-4‼️⁉️ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Monday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:45 PM 1 hour ago, snowwors2 said: (KYW) Accuweather still calling for 2-4‼️⁉️ what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:48 PM 1 minute ago, Albedoman said: what a joke I know, I can’t figure out what they’re doing… I’m guessing they’ll change it this evening⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:50 PM 1 hour ago, snowwors2 said: (KYW) Accuweather still calling for 2-4‼️⁉️ They have the support of the 18z NAM so there’s that at least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:54 PM 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: They have the support of the 18z NAM so there’s that at least! It doesn’t get 2-4” up to Philly, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:04 PM 9 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: It doesn’t get 2-4” up to Philly, does it? Philly gets 2-3” on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:05 PM 17 minutes ago, Albedoman said: what a joke More times than not they're correct. Not saying they will be this time but overall...I'll give Cecily a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:09 PM Cecily 4hrs ago... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:09 PM 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: More times than not they're correct. Not saying they will be this time but overall...I'll give Cecily a call. Yeah but Accuweather on kyw radio is often different than 6ABC… 2-4” was kyw, not sure what 6ABC is going with? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted Monday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:12 PM Just now, snowwors2 said: Yeah but Accuweather on kyw radio is often different than 6ABC… 2-4” was kyw, not sure what 6ABC is going with? Didn't know that...I thought "Accu Weather" was "Accu Weather" and the same prediction on radio and TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:13 PM 1 minute ago, snowwors2 said: Yeah but Accuweather on kyw radio is often different than 6ABC… 2-4” was kyw, not sure what 6ABC is going with? Kyw back in the day was affiliated with abc…then cbs Kate Bilo pretty sure now it’s with NBC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:15 PM 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Didn't know that...I thought "Accu Weather" was "Accu Weather" and the same prediction on radio and TV. I think they take accuweather input and tweak it at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted Monday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:18 PM 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Kyw back in the day was affiliated with abc…then cbs Kate Bilo pretty sure now it’s with NBC No, kyw radio has been back with Accuweather (again) for a while now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:41 PM 23 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: No, kyw radio has been back with Accuweather (again) for a while now! I always liked kyw when Elliott Abrams would come on or Frank Strait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaswx Posted Monday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:45 PM Bernie Rayno from accuweather has a very good discussion about the disconnect between what some of the models are implying based on their upper level features vs. what they are depicting at the surface verbatim. He’s not saying we’ll necessarily get much, but that it’s still worth tracking. https://youtu.be/LGZduacRitA?si=XB2olK7mHP468fFQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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