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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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2 minutes ago, Heisy said:


This is a really odd H5 progression. It has a mix of December 2009 and March 01 idk I have no analogs that fit honestly


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I pulled out my KU book earlier today and couldn't find anything really similar either. 2016 and 1996 were huge pure Miller A bowling balls that rolled underneath the region, this isn't that but the ceiling is certainly very very high. I'm still remaining cautious for y'all...

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6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

It's certainly at the doorstep looking in the peephole though compared to yesterday. 

Yep definitely showing baby steps. Tons upon tons of time left yet and everything will still change a bunch.

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A big shout out to my Facebook Page friends and followers as today we have passed 10,000 members!!! I am so appreciative of all of you...even those who struggle with the difference between a model and a forecast. Thank you!
At 945am the NWS upgraded Western Chesco to a Winter Weather Advisory through 8pm tonight. For this winter event #12 of our active season we see snow arriving from the west during the noon hour. Snow will change to rain (little if any sleet) by 4pm - at most we should see around 1" of snow. Beneficial rains will fall through tonight until tomorrow PM. Most spots should see upwards of 1" of liquid equivalent before the rain ends. We turn sharply and unseasonably colder yet again on Sunday night with our temperatures remaining below freezing both day and night for the rest of the work week. The rumored potential snow event midweek remains a possibility. Some models have a large snowstorm....others no more than flurries...stay tuned and thanks again!!

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Let's not be settling for a high end SECS :angry:
Is today's storm changing the variables to that end hope not
 
Yea that would certainly suck. Thought the EURO was locked. Hope it's not a trend and we're back in business at 18z wrt euro.

If it is more than a blip, atmospheric memory is such a bitch. Congrats VA again?

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8 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Yea that would certainly suck. Thought the EURO was locked. Hope it's not a trend and we're back in business at 18z wrt euro.

If it is more than a blip, atmospheric memory is such a bitch. Congrats VA again?

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

Big jog southeast on the EPS not what I wanted to see

 

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Odd to see the euro take such a sudden Big jump.  
Literally any other model could do that and we wouldn't flinch. Being the EURO you have to wonder. It now aligns fairly well with the gfs and cmc which sadly is a deadly combo.

Certainly too early to wave the white flag but having just the ICON and UK on our side(12z runs verbatim) isn't exactly giving me that warm cozy feeling.

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