Mikeymac5306 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Fantasy Land looks like March is coming in like a lion as well. Of course that's the day I fly back from Vegas so book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Chilly and breezy but dry today. Tomorrow it appears that our 12th winter event of what has been a busy winter season will arrive. Snow should begin by late morning tomorrow and change to rain by late afternoon. We could see up to as much as 2" of snow before it all gets washed away with some much-needed rain. Warmer with periods of rain Sunday before a turn to much colder by Sunday night. Dry and unseasonably cold weather this week with most of the week remaining below freezing both day and night. The potential is there for our largest snowstorm of the season....but we do not shovel potential! If the storm occurs it appears late Wednesday into Thursday will be the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21chuck Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Woke up with a dusting on the ground this morning. We must have had a snow squall pass through overnight. Seems like you were in a very tiny "jackpot" zone. See satellite imagery https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1890422726692593775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Back to squash city at 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Back to squash city at 12z GFS Canadian says the GFS is full of sh*t. Comes in with a bomb with widespread 12-18”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Canadian says the GFS is full of sh*t. Comes in with a bomb with widespread 12-18”. Always loved me some maple syrup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 UKMET is a big hit. ICON grazes us but is still a decent event. Now we just wait on the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And the Euro comes in with an absolute nuke!!! 1-2 feet for the entire region! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Haha nice troll job today by the last place GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And the Euro comes in with an absolute nuke!!! 1-2 feet for the entire region!This is kinda what I meant last night when I said this thing can really TUCK and EVERYONE can cash in with that airmass, with an ever higher ceiling. Very nice. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Let’s go!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Curious how many hours from start of event is the EURO at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The European Model suggests a major snowstorm in excess of 20 inches of snow later this week. The GFS says nope - it will stay to our south and move out to sea. Keep in mind The Blizzard of 1996 (NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE ANYTHING LIKE THAT) also featured the European saying big snows while the AVN/GFS said out to sea. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The European Model suggests a major snowstorm in excess of 20 inches of snow later this week. The GFS says nope - it will stay to our south and move out to sea. Keep in mind The Blizzard of 1996 (NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE ANYTHING LIKE THAT) also featured the European saying big snows while the AVN/GFS said out to sea. More in the Euro camp then the GFS Hopefully we can bring this one home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro ensembles are freaking nuts. Massive area of 6+” along the east coast. Completely wild to see on an ensemble mean 6 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, LVblizzard said: Euro ensembles are freaking nuts. Massive area of 6+” along the east coast. Completely wild to see on an ensemble mean 6 days out. OH MY our drought ----our fricking drought will be history. according to the Euro run Ah, but no worry the GFS will save our drought!!! This torm in the Euro is they type of storm that can break this drought and stubborn pattern too. The ideal storm we have been looking for. Nothing is believable until it is 48-72 hours out. Not enough accurate model data ingestion with this fluid progressive air above our heads. When I see the Euro match the 84 hour NAM in positive snow depth of 12+ in---- then BINGO- we have a winner winner chicken dinner. Until then horse puckey. I have been burned too many times with monster suppression/dry air or with a curve out to sea runs this year. Furthermore, The LP must be at the 70/30 bench mark and tucked within 75 miles of the coastline too to be believable. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Great writeup by @brooklynwx99 regarding next week's potential. 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Next week's system has become increasingly ominous and holds potential for significant to major impacts from DC - NYC and even BOS. There are a few features that make this such a favorable setup, mirroring past major and even historic storms: The most important feature of this setup is the retrograding and decaying west-based -NAO that migrates into central Canada. This is perhaps the most important feature for major EC snowstorms, and it is a huge factor here, as it slows the pattern down and locks in confluence. It also leads to the "banana" HP that often develops in these setups due to NVA downstream of the block. This is a lobe of the polar vortex (PV) that is the impetus for the storm threat. This lobe becomes trapped under the block and will be forced to pivot under it, leading to a potential phase with the southern stream vort (x) over TX/OK. This kind of slow-moving, amplified ULL is also a main feature of major storm threats. As is common in these setups, a disturbance, either coastal or otherwise, amplifies into the northern Atlantic and becomes trapped by the block, leading to a 50/50 ULL that departs. This is crucial for establishing confluence, which keeps heights in check downstream of the amplifying trough. Note how heights are zonal over ME and Atlantic Canada. Last but not least, there is a transient spike in heights over the Pacific NW that links up with the blocking. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle... if that disturbance offshore destructively interferes with the blossoming +PNA, you get a weaker solution. However, the trend has been for constructive interference, which helps lead to downstream amplification. It's also worth noting that this setup very closely mirrors past setups that delivered historic snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Yes, it's for NYC, but you guys generally want the same pattern, and there is a lot of overlap between HECS for NYC and BWI/DC. Notice the 500mb composite that has all four main features... the retrograding and decaying block, the amplifying trough over the MS River Valley, departing confluence, and a brief PNA spike as the storm is getting its act together. Suffice it to say, this is probably the best synoptic setup that we have seen enter the medium range since February 2021 (I'd run that one back down there if I were you guys) and it does hold the potential to be just as impactful. The GFS not being on board is pretty common in these setups. However, we will want to see this amplification signal enter the 96 hour window, so if we see this signal last into Monday, talks about a legitimate major snowstorm will hold more weight. Right now, it's worth being cautious, but the pattern has been screaming this kind of outcome for a week now, and it is bolstered by past outcomes. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looking at today’s model guidance it appears I will garaging the vehicle Wednesday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Need it to be like Monday Morning. Going to be a long weekend of model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS continues squash city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Duca892 said: GFS continues squash city It’s sucked ALL winter‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Woke up with a dusting on the ground this morning. We must have had a snow squall pass through overnight. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Euro ensembles are freaking nuts. Massive area of 6+” along the east coast. Completely wild to see on an ensemble mean 6 days out. Euro a full-on blizzard. GFS not a flake N of the turnpike, CMC in-between. Gonna be a long week. I want to buy the euro so bad, but a big widespread storm in a Nina, while possible, is extremely rare. We track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The big time players and moving parts are all there on every major model, the small nuances in the orientations/speeds are all what make or break the high-ceiling phase scenario. Based on what I've seen this winter, where the Euro and GFS have seemed to naturally converge towards a middle ground final solution, I'd imagine that's where we're heading with this... But we all know anything can happen in these setups up until 24-48 hours out. Jan 2015 comes to mind of course. This one seems especially prone to small, non-linear adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I want to give all you snow weenies out there a heads up. I am currently employed as a township consultant for planning. (Yeah retirement hogwash need the bucks LOL) Last night at the local township meeting, I was told by the public works director that they been told by salt suppliers that many (dozens) municipalities are OUT OF SALT. They the township maybe resorting to sand. The salt suppliers were told it will be 10-15 days before the municipalities y will be resupplied. Will not help after Sunday thats for sure. I expect a state disaster will be issued sometime after Sunday for any major storm over 6" so as the salt bins can filled in a hurry. The media has been kept out the picture on this entire situation but not for long because what municipality wants to broadcast to the media that they are out of salt or have a limited amount to their residents? Yes these numerous "nuisance" storm events have quickly escalated to a road disaster as many municipalities have already expended their salt budget twice over. Once the news gets out folks, hold on to hat. Thus far the media is too damn busy covering social BS and Trump doings. They better worry about their own dam backyard first as I always say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I want to give all you snow weenies out there a heads up. I am currently employed as a township consultant for planning. (Yeah retirement hogwash need the bucks LOL) Last night at the local township meeting, I was told by the public works director that they been told by salt suppliers that many (dozens) municipalities are OUT OF SALT. They the township maybe resorting to sand. The salt suppliers were told it will be 10-15 days before the municipalities y will be resupplied. Will not help after Sunday thats for sure. I expect a state disaster will be issued sometime after Sunday for any major storm over 6" so as the salt bins can filled in a hurry. The media has been kept out the picture on this entire situation but not for long because what municipality wants to broadcast to the media that they are out of salt or have a limited amount to their residents? Yes these numerous "nuisance" storm events have quickly escalated to a road disaster as many municipalities have already expended their salt budget twice over. Once the news gets out folks, hold on to hat. Thus far the media is too damn busy covering social BS and Trump doings. They better worry about their own dam backyard first as I always say. I got news for ya there has been articles written about this on the WFMZ news, this past week so it’s out there already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 40 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I got news for ya there has been articles written about this on the WFMZ news, this past week so it’s out there already My Township just put anti-skid back into it's salt mix to cut back. They did get a partial restock of salt this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Waiting for the 0z suite with trepidation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So yeah been reading the MA side and hearing about the slightly worse 18z and then realized wait what the run wasn't done at 144hrs, it was likely going to put up a 24-28" meatball over me in the next panel lol. Relief 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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