LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Holy crap the GFS just went full weenie. 2 1/2 feet for NYC, 1 1/2 feet for Philly, and 8-12” in the NW burbs. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Holy crap the GFS just went full weenie. 2 1/2 feet for NYC, 1 1/2 feet for Philly, and 8-12” in the NW burbs. Boston 4 feet need to get the pretty maps! Decent trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian does it too. A foot plus south of the turnpike. 6-12” for the LV/Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well that escalated quickly.. Needs to eject faster which is what was obvious earlier in the run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’ll take this sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron1660 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Terrific video by Bernie Rayno clearly explaining the driving issues for this potential storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We take but we know this is changing like 10 more times and probably is a southern New England crusher while we get 4-6” we can dream though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That GFS run is a classic NYC -> Boston HECS verbatim. Although there's a southern stream component to it, the TPV lobe in the northern stream does the heavy lifting and bombs it out justttt too late for Philly and SE PA latitudes. I wonder how strong the NAO block gets to push that just a bit further south? It'll be fun to track this one and see how the morphology changes as we get closer. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Newman said: That GFS run is a classic NYC -> Boston HECS verbatim. Although there's a southern stream component to it, the TPV lobe in the northern stream does the heavy lifting and bombs it out justttt too late for Philly and SE PA latitudes. I wonder how strong the NAO block gets to push that just a bit further south? It'll be fun to track this one and see how the morphology changes as we get closer. I’d say 18” is no “too late”‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, ron1660 said: Terrific video by Bernie Rayno clearly explaining the driving issues for this potential storm. AWESOME video… Keep ‘em coming‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: I’d say 18” is no “too late”‼️ Haha you're not wrong! 18" would be pretty incredible and be a top 10 all time storm for Philly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro goes boom. 12-20” for the entire PHL metro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ECM UKMET CMC GFS the big front four have to like our chances 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The fact that this changed so much from 12z to 0z means that this is far from wrapped up. It all depends on how that piece of the PV behaves. If it stays too strong or dives too far SE this goes back to being cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's really cold during the storm too. This thing could really tuck and still not have p type issues. A tuck would also mean a cleaner phase and a higher ceiling I would think. Tonight's models couldn't have gone better, wow!Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/12/2025 at 11:39 PM, LVblizzard said: 0z Canadian brings back the storm next week while the GFS misses to the south. Seems like a miss is more likely but there’s still a long way to go. Euro/eps are a huge hit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What I don't like is there is a large system looming this weekend between now and the 20th storm all kinds of variables in the equation can change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro ensemble mean is 6-9” at 10:1. With ratios that’s more like 8-12”. Complete insanity for a mean 7 days out. Of course things can still go wrong. Last week there was a big signal for this Tuesday (although not like this). It ended up being a pretty weak event for most of us. So we have to stay cautious even though the snow maps look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 OMG OMG!!!! Our drought our drought----- will it be destroyed by another 93 type of superstorm? That storm was on the models for a week before too with a huge amount of model consistency---- Oh no, I am melting !!!!! I have posting in the past 2 months , it will take a storm like this to break this fricking dry air suppressing progressive pattern until I am blue in the face. Well lets see what happens as the NY metro forum is going batshit crazy right now. C'mon man, lets get this potential storm dwindle down to a 2-3 inch nuisance storm event like the past 20 days so our drought lives on baby. LMAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z GFS takes a slight step back but still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Euro ensemble mean is 6-9” at 10:1. With ratios that’s more like 8-12”. Complete insanity for a mean 7 days out. Of course things can still go wrong. Last week there was a big signal for this Tuesday (although not like this). It ended up being a pretty weak event for most of us. So we have to stay cautious even though the snow maps look pretty. I feel like deja vu. 2 weeks ago weren't these ens means showing like 7-10" unanimous for last week's storm where we got 2-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Where has greenskeeper been? Wonder what happened....I don't see his account active anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In the what can go wrong department I can see the storm developing too late we get some snow 3-6” but the big winners is New England when they get 2-3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where has greenskeeper been? Wonder what happened....I don't see his account active anymore. He can’t even weenie anymore, I think he pissed off randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, RedSky said: What I don't like is there is a large system looming this weekend between now and the 20th storm all kinds of variables in the equation can change. Stormchaser chuck said the same thing in the MA forum. He did say it could only impede accumulation. Keep in mind this is for the MA forum and may not significantly impact us up here. All telecommunications are lining up to favorable stage for a storm. I watched DT’s YT video…yeah I know but the vid was excellent for thoroughly understanding how and why we get snow on the east coast. Probably one of his best videos yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I feel like deja vu. 2 weeks ago weren't these ens means showing like 7-10" unanimous for last week's storm where we got 2-3"? Yup, ensembles were off the charts and consistent. And then bam goodbye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I feel like deja vu. 2 weeks ago weren't these ens means showing like 7-10" unanimous for last week's storm where we got 2-3"? MJO was in phase 6/7 it’ll be in phase 8 / 1 for Thursday. I’m not worried about what happened on the 12th with relation to the 20th storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 flying out of phl next thursday morning which means this thing will most likely happen, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Woke up with a dusting on the ground this morning. We must have had a snow squall pass through overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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