LVblizzard Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z Canadian brings back the storm next week while the GFS misses to the south. Seems like a miss is more likely but there’s still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z ECM MECS 7.5 days away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Still freezing drizzle and 32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35F, mist and a little fog. Groundbreaking stuff going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z GFS with a southern slider again. Le sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @brooklynwx99 or @mitchnickwhat are the chances a SW follows the pattern and out to sea as depicted Edit: Wouldn’t we want the SW to track to the BM. Not sure it would be able to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, RedSky said: 0z ECM MECS 7.5 days away Flush hit with 12-16" GFS pulls it south. CMC has the hit but not as juiced per say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6Z NAM Saturday FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: 6Z NAM Saturday FWIW. The Saturday looks like it could be a nice little event no ones talking about especially N&W burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 We picked up 0.23" of freezing rain and rain since last evening. So far this year we are running over 2.5" below normal rainfall. Over the last 14 months we have been running at a slight deficit of 4.90" of precipitation. During this time frame we are running at 91% of normal melted snow/rain. We should put a nice dent in our deficit over this weekend with most models showing upwards of 1" of rain. Tomorrow will be the best weather day of the weekend before snow arrives on Saturday afternoon. Snow will change to rain during the PM. Sunday looks wet through midday. We then turn sharply colder by Sunday night with yet another run of below normal temperatures for most of next week. We have had solidly below normal temperatures across the area since way back on Thanksgiving Day. Expect to hear rumors of a snowstorm by mid to late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 59 minutes ago, penndotguy said: The Saturday looks like it could be a nice little event no ones talking about especially N&W burbs Because those maps are trash. Although the gfs is a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Many of us have been burned with digesting the LR models now as gospel the last 30 days. Even the SR models have been questionable as the parade of overrunning events over extremely dry air masses and the the basic geography of the Blue Mts are destroying any chances of a nice snowstorm event in Eastern PA. To even see a 3-5 inch event for Saturday is IMHO questionable the air as the conditions must be absolutely perfect for this to happen in this crappy pattern. I still have doubt on a 1-2 inch rain this weekend. most likely .50 to 1 ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: Many of us have been burned with digesting the LR models now as gospel the last 30 days. Even the SR models have been questionable as the parade of overrunning events over extremely dry air masses and the the basic geography of the Blue Mts are destroying any chances of a nice snowstorm event in Eastern PA. To even see a 3-5 inch event for Saturday is IMHO questionable the air as the conditions must be absolutely perfect for this to happen in this crappy pattern. I still have doubt on a 1-2 inch rain this weekend. most likely .50 to 1 ". I would venture to guess 90%+ of the posters here in our subforum don't take the long range models as gospel. This is in fact a weather forum: we post long range weather maps, track storms, and analyze ensemble guidance. When someone posts a 5+ day out map, it's assumed by most that it's exactly that... A weather-prediction model output with an attempt to simulate a chaotic, non-linear, dynamic fluid that we call the atmosphere. When the local Philly news outlets share long range guidance to the uninformed public? That's a problem and a whole other topic of discussion. Improving the communication of probabilities to the public, emergency managers, stakeholders, etc. is currently a huge area being tackled by the NWS. It's why there's been a big shift away from individual deterministic model evaluation and emphasis on in-house statistical ensemble products (NBM for example). In short, on a weather board like this I know most don't just take the models as gospel. The people on here are well-informed and knowledgeable about their stuff. We look at the long range models and scrutinize them because that's what we do and love. Speaking of long-range guidance... I believe this winter has been quite favorable at the 500mb level for mid-Atlantic snowstorms. Parts of SE PA have not been impacted as much due to small nuances in the flow that don't show up until close to game time. Compared to last winters, this has been quite an improvement. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, Newman said: I would venture to guess 90%+ of the posters here in our subforum don't take the long range models as gospel. This is in fact a weather forum: we post long range weather maps, track storms, and analyze ensemble guidance. When someone posts a 5+ day out map, it's assumed by most that it's exactly that... A weather-prediction model output with an attempt to simulate a chaotic, non-linear, dynamic fluid that we call the atmosphere. When the local Philly news outlets share long range guidance to the uninformed public? That's a problem and a whole other topic of discussion. Improving the communication of probabilities to the public, emergency managers, stakeholders, etc. is currently a huge area being tackled by the NWS. It's why there's been a big shift away from individual deterministic model evaluation and emphasis on in-house statistical ensemble products (NBM for example). In short, on a weather board like this I know most don't just take the models as gospel. The people on here are well-informed and knowledgeable about their stuff. We look at the long range models and scrutinize them because that's what we do and love. Speaking of long-range guidance... I believe this winter has been quite favorable at the 500mb level for mid-Atlantic snowstorms. Parts of SE PA have not been impacted as much due to small nuances in the flow that don't show up until close to game time. Compared to last winters, this has been quite an improvement. Agreed 100% I know most folks that post here understand that irrespective of what a model shows....we never ever need to shovel model snow. It is one part of the tool set used by professional meteorologists to make a forecast. Nothing wrong with posting maps as long as folks understand what they are and what they are not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12Z GFS still checking in with a southern slider for the most part next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12z GFS in a nice spot a week out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Duca892 said: 12Z GFS still checking in with a southern slider for the most part next week ICON has a thing of beauty. Crush job for all especially S&E of 95. CMC is a whiff with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12z ECM with three swift groin kicks. Cuts Saturday snow to <1", cuts qpf for the storm to <1", misses to southeast I95 with next weeks storm. Drought guy will be drooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM with three swift groin kicks. Cuts Saturday snow to <1", cuts qpf for the storm to <1", misses to southeast I95 with next weeks storm. Drought guy will be drooling 12z Euro ensembles strongly disagree with the OP. Ensemble mean of 4-6” for next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM with three swift groin kicks. Cuts Saturday snow to <1", cuts qpf for the storm to <1", misses to southeast I95 with next weeks storm. Drought guy will be drooling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It just got very windy outside. There’s the cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Squash city on 18z GFS for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: It just got very windy outside. There’s the cold front. Yea winds gusting here to near 40 mph from the northwest right now temps falling 45 currently all snowpack gone!! However cold air advection well underway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Power out trees down I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Killer winds for trash night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Still got my archaic north face snow crusts for one more day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ugly NAM for up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 NAM has half the precipitation that falls this weekend as snow and freezing imby and points north Lehigh Valley. GFS may come north next week on 0Z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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