RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS is north but needed a south trend, then south when we needed a north trend and north when we needed a south trend lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 I’m out. I’ll check back after 2/20 when the real REAL pattern (supposedly) sets up. Go Birds!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So, with next week in the dumpster, how we looking for our big grand finale major drool-worthy loaded powder keg pattern after the 20th? We still good? I think it still looks promising on the ensembles. -AO and -NAO with a potential 50/50 locked in and the cold underneath. Nice building western ridge on the EPS, less so on GEFS. The setup hasn't changed much, I don't think. Clearly OP model runs aren't trustworthy even to mid-range lead times. Next week is volatile. Hopefully we don't go dry again in the good base, but I guess that's the risk in a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Remember when all 3 ens means had 7"+ for our region thru next Friday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 hours ago, RedSky said: GFS is north but needed a south trend, then south when we needed a north trend and north when we needed a south trend lol Am looking out the window right now to the east and see your namesake in all its glory! Made it up to 44 yesterday and am currently at my low of 26 for today with dp 12. Some stuff outta the 6z GFS at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 We do “end of the run” well. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: We do “end of the run” well. It is the epic period so maybe it has legs. Look, I don't doubt the indices tank in our favor. But we've seen epic patterns quite a bit recently tbh, more than usual I would even venture to say. But I am more into track actual legit events in these patterns. And I get it, get the pattern in place first. OK. But I guess it's just frustration that these good telleconnections just haven't produced a whole hell of alot over the past decade. Either we are just in a decadal rut or @psuhoffman from the MidAtl will need to dig into the deeper chapters in his log. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Not one of these 300+hr fantasy storms have been close to reality over the past few years, until one gives us a fraction of the fantasy totals I’m not buying any of them even if the pattern looks great. Let’s get these inside 5 days then maybe we believe. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21chuck Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Am looking out the window right now to the east and see your namesake in all its glory! Made it up to 44 yesterday and am currently at my low of 26 for today with dp 12. Some stuff outta the 6z GFS at the end of the run. The giant philly snow hole makes this glorious weenie map feel strangely sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Not one of these 300+hr fantasy storms have been close to reality over the past few years, until one gives us a fraction of the fantasy totals I’m not buying any of them even if the pattern looks great. Let’s get these inside 5 days then maybe we believe. Inside five days, that’s when it’s worth while looking. Plus after the 15th the MJO will be in phase 8 and hopefully beat down the SER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS Monster at hour 372 of a 384 run... "Always like to keep my audience riveted!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The 6z ops looked less than great....but as Positive Paul....the GFS Ensemble did almost double from it's 0z run for this week. The trend begins???????.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 We also have the NBM ticking up from it's 6z run....if you choose to believe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Am looking out the window right now to the east and see your namesake in all its glory! Made it up to 44 yesterday and am currently at my low of 26 for today with dp 12. Some stuff outta the 6z GFS at the end of the run. We’ve now seen these types of maps for 3 weeks now. These maps are equivalent to seeing a category 5 hurricane traversing the Atlantic heading to the East or Gulf Coast that disappears in time. These are the money making ratings maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: We also have the NBM ticking up from its s 6z run....if you choose to believe!! As I stated yesterday today is when I’ll start paying attention to the the Tuesday thru Wednesday event. Mt Holly still seems to think we get a plowable event. The trends good or bad should start to resolve by Sunday, hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: Not one of these 300+hr fantasy storms have been close to reality over the past few years, until one gives us a fraction of the fantasy totals I’m not buying any of them even if the pattern looks great. Let’s get these inside 5 days then maybe we believe. I've been on this board, back then Eastern weather, for over 20 years. Those long-term, 300 hour models rarely pan out, maybe once in a blue moon. Should have a thread for 5 days and in threats. Then once we get within 2 days or so create a thread for that event. And create a thread for long-term weenie threats which I would look at here and there but certainly not pay close attention to the event draws near. Long-term threats in the current ops is silly and clogs everything up for nothing because they usually fail. Basically take one storm at a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Today will actually be our 10th winter event of the 2024-2025 season. While we have only added up to 15.1" of snow/sleet so far this season that is 77% of our average snow through today. For Team Snow if you are upset with our snow deficit this year....imagine if you lived in the upper Midwest. Here in Chester County, we have almost 40% more snow so far this winter season than both Minneapolis and Chicago? Today we should see snow arriving this afternoon quickly changing to sleet and then freezing rain. Driving this evening should be discouraged. We have a few more winter events in our future this week. However, the trend has been overall for less snow than earlier modeled. That said several inches of snow and sleet remain possible before the Friday morning rush hour. No doubt many forecast changes remain this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 NAM is a complete whiff for Tues-Wed. Yes it’s the NAM at range but this event is quickly turning to crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: NAM is a complete whiff for Tues-Wed. Yes it’s the NAM at range but this event is quickly turning to crap. To my weenie eyes, it looks like the old “models focusing on the wrong wave” scenario. Instead of the Tuesday wave, perhaps the Thursday thingy is where their attention will turn to. But by then, will temps be on our side? Anyway, I already declared I’m out on the Tuesday deal, so I’ll take my time out and go sit in the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, JTA66 said: To my weenie eyes, it looks like the old “models focusing on the wrong wave” scenario. Instead of the Tuesday wave, perhaps the Thursday thingy is where their attention will turn to. But by then, will temps be on our side? Anyway, I already declared I’m out on the Tuesday deal, so I’ll take my time out and go sit in the corner. wise decision. The old farts like me always wait until 48-72 hours when the pac buoys are no longer calling the shots for the models for accurate precip totals . That time period starts at the 0Z models tonight. Consistency is what I am looking for, not for actual amounts this far out. 12-18+ has been demonstrated in the models but not proven yet. The more accurate data ingestion in the models the better consistency. Tonights storm is a literal crap shoot. The damn moisture again is being sucked out of the atmosphere before the LP hits our area. I got down to 15 degrees this morningt and my indoor humidifier is running like gang busters again. The only saving grace maybe an upper level low forming in the sw of the Altoona area that may swing buy and give us some thundersleet/snow. That is worth seeing. Also, dendritic growth could be an issue early this evening with half dollar to pancake size flakes forming and can pile up quickly. The snow accumulations are all over the place indicating 2-7 inches tonight on the mesos. I am sticking with the HRRR as it has been somewhat believable in the last few storms for the LV. 3-5 inches of snow appears to be a good bet right now for me but nothing surprises me and the later the start, the less we get as the upper level low will be getting its shiot together further northeast of us and we get screwed again. By the way, my prediction the wording "my roads are caving" will be used a lot in posts later this evening LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 So Tuesday/Wednesday is gone and we have a rainstorm after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Winter teetering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z GFS creeping back north for this week's event... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: So Tuesday/Wednesday is gone and we have a rainstorm after that? I wouldn’t get too excited until that SER is gone, which hopefully will be after the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, Albedoman said: wise decision. The old farts like me always wait until 48-72 hours when the pac buoys are no longer calling the shots for the models for accurate precip totals . That time period starts at the 0Z models tonight. Consistency is what I am looking for, not for actual amounts this far out. 12-18+ has been demonstrated in the models but not proven yet. The more accurate data ingestion in the models the better consistency. Tonights storm is a literal crap shoot. The So is this how qpf is determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The north trend has begun!!! Per Positive Paul!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Getting a decent snowstorm in Philly seems like pulling teeth. This is probably another 1-1.5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 To my weenie eyes, it looks like the old “models focusing on the wrong wave” scenario. Instead of the Tuesday wave, perhaps the Thursday thingy is where their attention will turn to. But by then, will temps be on our side? Anyway, I already declared I’m out on the Tuesday deal, so I’ll take my time out and go sit in the corner.Yes this is the entire reason models backed off the more N route. I wouldn’t be shocked if an icon scenario occurs. Thursdays wave is too warm for most . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Getting a decent snowstorm in Philly seems like pulling teeth. This is probably another 1-1.5 . Heisy. If the woman in your avatar is your wife/girlfriend please give her equal exposure. She is much better looking. J/K 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: NAM is a complete whiff for Tues-Wed. Yes it’s the NAM at range but this event is quickly turning to crap. I'm not even shocked. I feel like we do this regularly anymore. Now when the epic pattern goes to shit or doesn't produce, I will be disappointed. Not really tbough, because again, it's kind of the norm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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