ChescoWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: But look at that gradient near the city Yep that of course will always be the case as you near the coastal plain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But look at that gradient near the city Disgusting map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 17 minutes ago, RedSky said: Still have a couple remnant snow crust remains in north facings from before Christmas that it appears can survive into March lol Winter of yore stuff We've had snow around all winter just about in one place or another and looks to continue... 34F/Sunny....get your vitamin D while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Found this YT channel from the MA forum, definitely recommend a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 My advice is take each threat one at a time, that's what I'm doing. Pattern is active and should be multiple threats, that's all we can ask for. I'm focused on tonight then will take a look at Sun and Tues tomorrow, not even focused on them yet let alone anything further than that. Tonight was looking like mostly rain 5 days ago and now is looking mostly frozen... Things can change quick. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: Found this YT channel from the MA forum, definitely recommend a watch That direct weather guy on YouTube must be predicting a glacier and ice age based on typical hype level 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, The Iceman said: My advice is take each threat one at a time, that's what I'm doing. Pattern is active and should be multiple threats, that's all we can ask for. I'm focused on tonight then will take a look at Sun and Tues tomorrow, not even focused on them yet let alone anything further than that. Tonight was looking like mostly rain 5 days ago and now is looking mostly frozen... Things can change quick. Yep. Remember when I made a post 6 days or so ago when the Euro had highs in the mid 60s today for us? Changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep. Remember when I made a post 6 days or so ago when the Euro had highs in the mid 60s today for us? Changes. More changes with 0z and not of the good kind this time. Best to wait for tomorrow and hope for more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, RedSky said: More changes with 0z and not of the good kind this time. Best to wait for tomorrow and hope for more changes. Not seeing anything 'bad', unless your expectations are set at wall-to-wall snow and cold with each wave next week. Saturday night now looks 95% frozen, not much snow but whatever. Tuesday is starting to hone in on a solid 4-8"/5-10" ish type secs. Then a followup wave thurs or fri is really close with the boundary but that could go either way, then fantasy range has a signal for PD and after the 20th a window opens for a bigger 'potential' (Archabault?) As the nao rots. So yeah. If you asked me if I would take this in a Nina February I would sign on the dotted line. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Stolen from the MA forum... Washington Post article excerpt which is a good reminder: Consider these rules of thumb for snow forecasts: • Predictions 10 or more days into the future are almost always unreliable. • Predictions seven days into the future are generally unreliable. • Predictions five days into the future are sometimes reliable. • Predictions three days or less into the future are generally reliable, but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 I'm not hating next week on the GFS. Yeah, the second wave changes over, but too far out to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Get that to slow down a little bit and we may break out the George Patton speech for 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GFS and CMC evolutions are a good bit different. GFS wants a bigger first wave and then sort of staggers the second round into two pieces, one of which is mostly a southern rain. 5-10" of snow and then a minor mixed-to-rain event of sorts. Canadian says the second event is more amped and is mostly rain. Probably a 3-6" snow event washed away. I'll be curious to see what the Euro does at 12Z. At 0Z it was less amped on both events, unsurprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not seeing anything 'bad', unless your expectations are set at wall-to-wall snow and cold with each wave next week. Saturday night now looks 95% frozen, not much snow but whatever. Tuesday is starting to hone in on a solid 4-8"/5-10" ish type secs. Then a followup wave thurs or fri is really close with the boundary but that could go either way, then fantasy range has a signal for PD and after the 20th a window opens for a bigger 'potential' (Archabault?) As the nao rots. So yeah. If you asked me if I would take this in a Nina February I would sign on the dotted line. Hone in dude really? The ECM/GFS/CMC/ICON/NAM/RAP/HRRR and any other oddball less used model busted on todays frozen at game time for N&W zones. I have no clue what is going to happen Saturday night, none lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not seeing anything 'bad', unless your expectations are set at wall-to-wall snow and cold with each wave next week. Saturday night now looks 95% frozen, not much snow but whatever. Tuesday is starting to hone in on a solid 4-8"/5-10" ish type secs. Then a followup wave thurs or fri is really close with the boundary but that could go either way, then fantasy range has a signal for PD and after the 20th a window opens for a bigger 'potential' (Archabault?) As the nao rots. So yeah. If you asked me if I would take this in a Nina February I would sign on the dotted line. Depends where you are. It's frozen the more north and west you are to the Philly viewing area. However, if you're south and east, you'll see less frozen precip. I think it will be an all-rain event in places like AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 42 minutes ago, RedSky said: Hone in dude really? The ECM/GFS/CMC/ICON/NAM/RAP/HRRR and any other oddball less used model busted on todays frozen at game time for N&W zones. I have no clue what is going to happen Saturday night, none lol They did well, HOWEVER even up here in the poconos, at 28 degrees, the ice didn’t accumulate. The sleet did, but there was literally no ice accrual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: They did well, HOWEVER even up here in the poconos, at 28 degrees, the ice didn’t accumulate. The sleet did, but there was literally no ice accrual How much frozen fell in the Pocono's because locally it was 25% or less the predicted amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The ensemble runs are a bit snowier than the operational runs of the European. The European shows 3 more winter storms over the next 10 days. The first one this weekend is snow to ice. The 2nd one in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame looks to be a "plowable" event. The third looks possible next weekend. The below are the ensemble runs for each of these potential events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Again, I'll be surprised if we see frozen precip at ACY on Saturday night. Temps are going to be well above freezing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Thickening fog and 33F Driveway is great for skating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Cloudy 36f humidity 98% dewpoint 36f Total Rain: 0.42" Total Sleet: 0.01" Total Freezing Rain: 0.27" (all surfaces covered with ice except many paved / cement areas there were a few cement areas covered.) Ice is long gone no ice anywhere left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Not hating the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Not hating the 18z GFS. Looks ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Not hating the 18z GFS. No complaints here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Beautiful run of the 18z GFS. 8-12” on Tues-Wed with over a foot in the NW Philly burbs. Then another 6-12” north of the turnpike with the Thurs-Fri storm. Glorious! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 18z happy hour was the we beat New England run. Many more rolls of the dice to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, LVblizzard said: Beautiful run of the 18z GFS. 8-12” on Tues-Wed with over a foot in the NW Philly burbs. Then another 6-12” north of the turnpike with the Thurs-Fri storm. Glorious! Being from Berks County, I approve of this run… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 You want to be in the Barney colors for winning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Get that to slow down a little bit and we may break out the George Patton speech for 18Z Men... All this talk you hear about warm air mixing and thermals in February is a lot of horse dung... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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