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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks?

I still think we get wacked with one MECS before the fat lady sings. I’m not much of a March snow type, early March maybe but after mid month bring on Spring. It would be nice for these next couple weeks to rock.

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16 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Ralph going crazy, but yeah...

43F

Really hard to concentrate on weather with the Birds Super bowl coming up.....

Already crazy but yeah....

Folks were touting the pattern on the models getting rushed and best stuff late Feb into March. But the pattern doesn't look like the models were rushing it. -NAO/-AO/-EPO allowing here next week and it isnt mid month. My gut is saying models actually were slow with the model change and we should enjoy next week. 

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9 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I still think we get wacked with one MECS before the fat lady sings. I’m not much of a March snow type, early March maybe but after mid month bring on Spring. It would be nice for these next couple weeks to rock.

If whacked means 6+", I'm not seeing it....even 4 inches seems a stretch. Kind of want to get slammed by a sleet or freezing rain event. The snow thing just isn't working around these parts....

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32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

If whacked means 6+", I'm not seeing it....even 4 inches seems a stretch. Kind of want to get slammed by a sleet or freezing rain event. The snow thing just isn't working around these parts....

I'm kinda here with this as well. I think we're getting sleeted to death like 2007.   What year was the St. Patricks sleet fest?  2006? 

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2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

I'm kinda here with this as well. I think we're getting sleeted to death like 2007.   What year was the St. Patricks sleet fest?  2006? 

They were both in 2007...Valentine's Day and St. Patrick's Day. I'm one of those weirdos that enjoys a good sleet storm. That stuff sticks around forever. Put a fine glaze of ZR on top and you won't see grass until Memorial Day.

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With a cold frontal passage this AM we have already reached our high temperature for the day. We should see our temperatures hold steady this morning then fall this afternoon. We should reach freezing during the 6pm hour across much of Chester and Berks Counties. We then look to stay below freezing tomorrow and through rush hour on Thursday. This sets the stage for a messy mix of snow to sleet to freezing rain before it tapers off from southwest to northeast on Thursday. Precipitation looks to arrive Wednesday evening. We get to do this all over again Saturday afternoon into evening.

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11 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Totally agree. I find it funny long time members still buy into this shit. Been burnt so many times. Give me a Superbowl and I care less about all this stuff...

Yeah, I'd rather have the Super Bowl win, even if it means a snowless rest of the winter. The Super Bowl is forever, whereas the snow from the storm will eventually melt.

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4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I'd rather have the Super Bowl win, even if it means a snowless rest of the winter. The Super Bowl is forever, whereas the snow from the storm will eventually melt.

One thing I do like about this forum is that everyone here keeps it real for the most part. The clown maps are fun to look at (which is why I am here) but it's all speculation so far out.  Others like to ride or die, and then two days out when it's not the killer storm everyone saw two week prior they're jumping off the bridge. 

 

It's just weather. Keep it light and have fun with it when it's out in fantasy land. 

The Eagles on the other hand. LFG!!!!!

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2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I'd rather have the Super Bowl win, even if it means a snowless rest of the winter. The Super Bowl is forever, whereas the snow from the storm will eventually melt.

I mean I said before the 2017 win against the Pats that I'd trade 5 snowless winters in a row for that win... and then that basically happened :lol: No regrets though and I would absolutely trade no snow the rest of this winter for a win on Sunday... It would be legendary to have a parade with snow around though not going to lie. If I can trade a win sunday and MECS next week in exchange for a snowless winter rest of the winter and next year, let's do that! Call me Howie Snowsman. :snowman:

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I mean I said before the 2017 win against the Pats that I'd trade 5 snowless winters in a row for that win... and then that basically happened :lol: No regrets though and I would absolutely trade no snow the rest of this winter for a win on Sunday... It would be legendary to have a parade with snow around though not going to lie. If I can trade a win sunday and MECS next week in exchange for a snowless winter rest of the winter and next year, let's do that! Call me Howie Snowsman. :snowman:

Only a trade for a Phillies World Series would get me on board! I love the Birds but The Phightins are #1 for me!!

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4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

They were both in 2007...Valentine's Day and St. Patrick's Day. I'm one of those weirdos that enjoys a good sleet storm. That stuff sticks around forever. Put a fine glaze of ZR on top and you won't see grass until Memorial Day.

Classic backloaded el nino winter. Cool September and October, then warm November, December, and most of January. The bottom fell out of the thermometer in February, our coldest this side of 1980 (until the historically cold February 2015). Then, after the Valentine's Day and St. Patrick's Day storms, we had our wettest April on record, including a wintry mix event on April 16.

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6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks?

I'm looking for that weather emergency arctic dump that was advertised for several days to be coming mid month and not finding it anymore. I mean GFS at range looks like seasonable temps what happened?

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

ECM says yeah the 12th storm is cancelled it's now the ever famous only 10 days away storm again.

 

We'll see what happens I guess. Others are saying things are lining up perfectly still for the 2nd half of Feb. 

Really think the SPV split thing screwed our pattern change up but I'm probably imagining it.

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I have a feeling alot of folks misinterpreted my posts this AM about the post feb 20 maybe being a toss up but we have a bunch of shit staring us in the face next 7 days or so.

By.zero.means was that  complaint nor a knock on any individual. I even put a comment that it would be funny to reach climo over the next 10 days then flip to a relax after that. Was more a knock on our ens systems at range and also a reminder to look in front  of us and not into deep fantasy.

By all means, bring the snow threats now. Would much rather have them next week than looking beyond and just hoping. 

Now as you were.

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