E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[LVblizzard]

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

18z happy hour GFS went colder on the weekend storm and smokes us next week 

And then gives us a HECS next weekend too. This is a seriously amazing pattern setting up and all the models generally agree.

[MJO812]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

And then gives us a HECS next weekend too. This is a seriously amazing pattern setting up and all the models generally agree.

MJO 8 plus stretching of the PV

[Ralph Wiggum]

Holy shit, then other mecs next weekend. Here's the 24hr snowfall for that bomb:

[Ralph Wiggum]

Is there such a thing as too much? Wtf

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is there such a thing as too much? Wtf

 

Consistent 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Kuchera totals

[JTA66]

Anyone planning to buckle up?

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone planning to buckle up?

I'm just trying to be patient.

[mattinpa]

12 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone planning to buckle up?

Yep, snow looks likely though always have to be cautious about the MECS/HECS that far ahead. Should be good model watching. 

[Nodriveslow]

Can already foresee the store shelves being empty.

[tcutter]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is there such a thing as too much? Wtf

 

 

Not really....that would be a memory for all time 

[LVblizzard]

18z GFS/Euro got colder for Sat-Sun too. Could be another fairly significant ice event.

[MGorse]

57 minutes ago, RedSky said:

18z happy hour GFS went colder on the weekend storm and smokes us next week 

All aboard the GFS train. 

[MGorse]

36 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone planning to buckle up?

Tray tables up and fasten seatbelts.  

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is there such a thing as too much? Wtf

 

Yes there in fact is. By President's Day in 2014 I had enough and was looking for spring.  True story.

The winter that destroyed 309 highway

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Holy shit, then other mecs next weekend. Here's the 24hr snowfall for that bomb:

This is what we need to solve our drought issue!  One extreme to the other will be the coast to coast theme starting yesterday and for the next 3-5 weeks.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Yes there in fact is. By President's Day in 2014 I had enough and was looking for spring.  True story.

The winter that destroyed 309 highway

 

You mean 309 gets worse than the current decrepit state it is in?

[anthonyweather]

4 hours ago, MGorse said:

Who or what was forecasting 50 degrees today in the Poconos?

was going off the Bethlehem forecast lol

[penndotguy]

I hate to play devils advocate, but I feel we’ve been down this road before. Don’t get me wrong I hope we cash in on every threat I think caution should be taken to avoid the masses running for the bridges. With all that said, don’t stop posting those clown maps

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, penndotguy said:

I hate to play devils advocate, but I feel we’ve been down this road before. Don’t get me wrong I hope we cash in on every threat I think caution should be taken to avoid the masses running for the bridges. With all that said, don’t stop posting those clown maps

I cannot disagree but we have a very intense dynamic thermal gradient setting up very warm south quite cold north.

 

in the department of what can go wrong is that the warmth is too overwhelming aloft and instead of 30” of snow we have 2” of snow followed by 7” of sleet.

 

These snowfall maps lighting up like this screams a level of sleet especially closer to the thermal gradient.

I am cautiously optimistic just give me precipitation to fill the reservoirs creeks streams and rivers.

 

I m feeling with the cold Atlantic and 80-90 degree heat our south wild weather times are ahead at least.

[JTA66]

20 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I hate to play devils advocate, but I feel we’ve been down this road before. Don’t get me wrong I hope we cash in on every threat I think caution should be taken to avoid the masses running for the bridges. With all that said, don’t stop posting those clown maps

Weenie handbook rule #2: failure is always an option.

As long as it isn’t a parade of 33F and rain, I’ll be happy.

[Birds~69]

59 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I hate to play devils advocate, but I feel we’ve been down this road before. Don’t get me wrong I hope we cash in on every threat I think caution should be taken to avoid the masses running for the bridges. With all that said, don’t stop posting those clown maps

Totally agree. I find it funny long time members still buy into this shit. Been burnt so many times. Give me a Superbowl and I care less about all this stuff...

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You mean 309 gets worse than the current decrepit state it is in?

They spent the next two years repaving the entire highway after that winter. There were ruts, canyons and holes the size of tires I was lucky my car survived.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12k NAM continues to get colder at the onset of heavier precip overnight Wednesday. Slightly stronger low near coastal NC as well helping with the CAD. Here are the last 3 runs of 850s for comparison:

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Thread open to discuss Wednesday/Thursday:

 

 

[KamuSnow]

3 hours ago, MGorse said:

Tray tables up and fasten seatbelts.  

Please extinguish all smoking materials.

[snowwors2]

4 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone planning to buckle up?

Just ordered my straight jacket through Prime…

BOOM or BUST it’ll come in handy‼️

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Weenie handbook rule #2: failure is always an option.

As long as it isn’t a parade of 33F and rain, I’ll be happy.

I'm pretty sure Philly would wait for a sunny day to have the parade. Last time, it rained on the traditional Wednesday (the 7th), so the parade was held on Thursday the 8th instead.

2018-02-07	50	25	37.5	3.1	27	0	0.82	0.2	T
2018-02-08	36	27	31.5	-3.0	33	0	0.00	0.0	0

 

[Albedoman]

On 1/24/2025 at 4:06 PM, Albedoman said:

First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period.

•  January 3

The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow. The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains...

•  December 5, 2024

 

 

I have been harping on the Enso going neutral and  about how this winter could be like bitter cold and dry like 94, which I was right.  The next biggie--  a major snow event in and around Valentines day in this current pattern regime.  I am  not really concern at this time about the potential for a significant ice storm for next week as the saving grace is that the moisture is not around to produce .5 to 1" ice accumulations.

well how am I doing? LOL 20+ inches by Valentines on GFS

[RedSky]

0z GFS OP is an outlier the ensembles are better