ChescoWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The first model run of the day the 12z NAM which is a bit out of it's range has temperatures here at the surface staying below freezing all day Wednesday and through around 8 or 9am on Thursday. While that is happening warmer air will be moving in above us at around 5k feet. Meaning by about 4am on Thursday morning temperatures will be well above freezing where snow is made. This means whatever falls after that time will be some form of non-snow meaning sleet or freezing rain. Then it will be a race to see how we get the surface to warm for plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 56 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Either we're about to experience one of the better patterns around here in years OR we're on the verge of one of the biggest head fakes/rug pulls of all time. Place your bets! At my bird feeder the Goldfinches summer plumage is beginning to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 All kidding aside, my feeder is packed with Bluebirds, Cardinals, Goldfinches, Titmice, Chickadees, and four species of Woodpecker. They know something is coming 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The latest GFS runs has 4 winter events with all but this weekend's event having snow accumulation as part of the mix. This weekend on the model looks like mainly freezing rain changing to rain. Below are the 3 individual model snow events with 2 day totals over the next couple weeks. NOT A FORECAST! The first snow event is this Thursday. #2 is next Wednesday/Thursday and #3 is the weekend of the 14th-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: The latest GFS runs has 4 winter events with all but this weekend's event having snow accumulation as part of the mix. This weekend on the model looks like mainly freezing rain changing to rain. Below are the 3 individual model snow events with 2 day totals over the next couple weeks. NOT A FORECAST! The first snow event is this Thursday. #2 is next Wednesday/Thursday and #3 is the weekend of the 14th-15th. If the last 2 storms happen, when are we going to have our parade for the Eagles Super Bowl victory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 So much for 50 degrees today.. wtf. 38 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Euro ensembles are honking LOUD for next Wednesday. Ensemble mean is 3-6” for the region which is pretty insane for something 9-10 days out. Last time I can remember a storm signal like this was Jan. 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 11 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So much for 50 degrees today.. wtf. 38 here So much for sun too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The warm front got hung up its over Philly 41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So much for 50 degrees today.. wtf. 38 here 48F here, more clouds than sun but sun making a guest appearance here and there...still may make 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So much for 50 degrees today.. wtf. 38 here Who or what was forecasting 50 degrees today in the Poconos? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The pre Super Bowl storm that was looking better yesterday is turning into a quick snow ice to rain event nothingburger like mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 48F here, more clouds than sun but sun making a guest appearance here and there...still may make 50F. 49F...may eek 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Sun has made an appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Hit 50F a little after 3pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Sign me up please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The snowfall maps for the GFS are cracked out because they are showing a lot of sleet accumulation. Conditions for a couple of those events don't support a moderate snowfall solution. In other words, they can't really be trusted right now. The longer term pattern looks more interesting, but there's a chance of an all-snow event next week prior to or around Valentine's Day. The GFS has several discrete events over a few days, but I think that might consolidate down into two - mid-week and then a weekend something. The Euro is keying more around the 12th/13th and then there's less consensus for a weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18z NAM with snow / sleet and ZR would be quite the messy mix if it was to be believed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The 18z NAM has quite the 700-850 mb FGEN forcing resulting in that initial focused band of heavier snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 44F for the high. Still have my snow patches, and nicely salt added too roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, JTA66 said: Either we're about to experience one of the better patterns around here in years OR we're on the verge of one of the biggest head fakes/rug pulls of all time. Place your bets! I dont think it's a head fake wrt the hemispheric pattern and favorable teleconnections, though I could see us getting screwed with sleet and rain right before the cha ge, then suppression with the actual pattern in place, and lastly missing archambault event when it all breaks down circa march 2001. Yep, I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Would be really cool to ha snow during the Eagles victory parade next Wednesday, even though they would probably reschedule it. Yep, I said that too. Going for the ultimate jinx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont think it's a head fake wrt the hemispheric pattern and favorable teleconnections, though I could see us getting screwed with sleet and rain right before the cha ge, then suppression with the actual pattern in place, and lastly missing archambault event when it all breaks down circa march 2001. Yep, I said it. Have a snickers bar Ralphie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Have a snickers bar Ralphie Having an Oreo McFlurry, close enough BTW, rgem is a rush hour nightmare up here Thursday AM. Driving to work in Telford at 730am looks challenging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 When I see that this much snow being shown on the positive snow depth change map , Its time to get rested for some serious snow shoveling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Is the ECM on an island for Thursday it seems so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Is the ECM on an island for Thursday it seems so. Fingers and toes crossed the Euro is again king!! I am sure the other models are way overdoing the cold! I don't think any of us wants ice!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Fingers and toes crossed the Euro is again king!! I am sure the other models are way overdoing the cold! I don't think any of us wants ice!! I’ll pass on the ice too, snow/sleet I’m fine with but a long duration freezing rain event is not fun at all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18z happy hour GFS went colder on the weekend storm and smokes us next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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