E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

18z GFS with a slight bump up in snow....if it was true a nice few inches of powder to refresh the snowy landscape...

[Duca892]

Allentown from 1.7 to 2.1 to 2.2in. on the 6z>12z>18z GFS. Moving on up baby!!!

[Kevin Reilly]

39 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Allentown from 1.7 to 2.1 to 2.2in. on the 6z>12z>18z GFS. Moving on up baby!!!

Next we skip 2.3” onward directly to 31.3”

[The Iceman]

00z is where we begin reeling this back in, I’m driving the bus, who’s hopping on? 

[Duca892]

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

00z is where we begin reeling this back in, I’m driving the bus, who’s hopping on? 

I’m riding the bus to 2.6in 

[kickingupastorm]

35 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I’m riding the bus to 2.6in 

That’s what she said.

[Fields27]

Nickel and diming our way to the top! Aside from this Saturday storm it looks pretty cold and dry for a while. Maybe a clipper or two where we can add a couple nickles. Then possibly a cutter with cad that starts as snow verbatim around the 18th. It seems that's the only way we get appreciable snow around here.

My sister lives in Lewes, DE. The new snow capital of the East. They got 12" yesterday and look to jackpot this weekend too lol.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Hurricane Agnes]

Currently 26 with dp 14 and the 18z Euro decided to go south again and really dried it out for up here!

[penndotguy]

Ok since joining this site I think I’ve gathered quite a bit of knowledge as well as the extreme highs and lows in expectations with that said I just want to confirm a few things. The main reason for our cold/dry weather is due to the 50/50 low that is trapped due to the strong -NAO, do we need one or the other weaker or in a different position? Because I’ve always thought both of these features are needed for our snowy winters. Now I get there are other factors as well, but it seems the culprit in this windy cold winter that damn 50/50 is messing up things. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

18 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Ok since joining this site I think I’ve gathered quite a bit of knowledge as well as the extreme highs and lows in expectations with that said I just want to confirm a few things. The main reason for our cold/dry weather is due to the 50/50 low that is trapped due to the strong -NAO, do we need one or the other weaker or in a different position? Because I’ve always thought both of these features are needed for our snowy winters. Now I get there are other factors as well, but it seems the culprit in this windy cold winter that damn 50/50 is messing up things. 

I think one would be looking for a blocking high over Greenland - the old "Greenland Block" (that can facillitate phasing with the southern jet stream).

As an obs, am currently 24 with a crispy dp of 12. 

Had looked at the 6z GFS and it's still on track for an inch or so up here.  6z Euro is running right now at post time.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Waiting for the 0z EC but the NAM is sortof in range and is not far off from the GFS.

[Mikeymac5306]

Well that was fun tracking for two days.

 

Next system looks to roll in on the 18th. 6Z Op shows slight ice to rain.  

[penndotguy]

37 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Well that was fun tracking for two days.

 

Next system looks to roll in on the 18th. 6Z Op shows slight ice to rain.  

You can lock-in  that scenario. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

I think they're all in agreement at this point. lol

 

[ChescoWx]

We are off to our coldest start to a year since 2018. That year was the coldest start with records back to 1893 for Chester County. Our stretch of below normal temperatures looks like it will continue for almost 10 more days before we see temperatures rise to normal or above by the weekend after this one. A couple flurries have been flying this AM but mostly sunny days but cold are on tap for the rest of the week. We may rise to near freezing by Friday and into the weekend. Our next minor snow event looks to arrive by Saturday morning with no more than a couple inches in most spots.

[JTA66]

I don't know if it's a good match analog wise, but this winter is starting to remind me of 2003-04. We had the cold that year, just no significant storms. Lots of nickle & dime events that kept the ground white for long stretches.

I'm starting to think if we do get something (and others have already speculated on this), it's something that will pop up at a short lead time, say inside 84hrs. I dunno, just trying to be patient. 

[LVblizzard]

Our weekend threat is pretty much dead. Glad I never hyped it up on my page like so many of them did. C-2” still seems likely at least.

[jwilson]

Northern stream behaving like a La Nina and no real ideal blocking positions, between a stout -NAO that's likely bleeding a bit too far south and a giant North Atlantic trough.

Looks like this pattern abates around the 19th in time for a big cutter to recycle the flow.  We don't really want a repeat of this pattern, though.

GFS kills off the -NAO at range, but the Euro doesn't, and right now the GFS lacks credibility.  Potentially could lose the -AO, as well.

I actually think that massive -EPO is hurting way more than helping.  It's creating a cliff-like ridge in the west and we aren't seeing a proper or ideal +PNA ridge orientation.

Have to hope the latter half of January creates something more conducive to snow above 40N.

[zenmsav6810]

flurries! (here at work in Caln Twp.)

 

[Birds~69]

30 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

flurries!

 

Couple here, the wind is persistent.

28f

[RedSky]

Anybody notice the 12z GFS has rain showers to the Pocono's Saturday afternoon. What's up with that you bullshit model is that our kick in the groin.

 

[ChescoWx]

16 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Anybody notice the 12z GFS has rain showers to the Pocono's Saturday afternoon. What's up with that you bullshit model is that our kick in the groin.

 

Only rain showers are way out in the Atlantic....

[ChescoWx]

Below is why the younger folks think it always snows a lot in this area,,,,the 1st 2 decades of this century were mighty snowy compared to average.

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Anybody notice the 12z GFS has rain showers to the Pocono's Saturday afternoon. What's up with that you bullshit model is that our kick in the groin.

 

Must be a warm tongue of air aloft coming in from the Atlantic around our BECS!

[RedSky]

18 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Only rain showers are way out in the Atlantic....

 

[RedSky]

That's ok euro is dry on Saturday now lol

 

[ChescoWx]

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

 

That is clearly a tidbits issue with -6c 850 temps down to the Carolinas LOL!

[RedSky]

Euro gives us a southern slider chance on the 20th

Then New Orleans and Florida on the 22nd

 

[ChescoWx]

Nice snow pack refresher on Euro.....

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That is clearly a tidbits issue with -6c 850 temps down to the Carolinas LOL!

Yeah I realized, the Lake Ontario rain shower gave that away