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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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32 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Idk anything other than forum browsing, but I feel 4-5 days out that it might be in an amazing spot IF it trends N/W on the 6z GFS? 

6z GFS still hanging with the Miller A-type setup.  However not showing a gigantic HECS. :lol:

As an obs - looks like the wind blew away whatever dusted things last night.

I eventually had a high of 29 yesterday with a low of 21 and it's currently 20 and clear, with dp 12.

floop-gfs-6z-2025010706.prateptype_cat-imp.conus-01072025.gif

floop-gfs-6z-snow-2025010706.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01072025.gif

floop-gfs-6z-snow-kuchera-2025010706.snku_acc-imp.us_ne-01072025.gif

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We ended up with 2.8" of snow yesterday in East Nantmeal for the season we now stand at 6.1" which is 84% of normal snow to date. Windy today with some areas of blowing snow today (like on my road in Chesco). Dry through Friday with temperatures slowly moderating to within a couple of degrees of freezing. Snow chances increase on Friday night into Saturday, but this looks like no more than a moderate event despite what some are saying.

image.png.51f4576809988e3f7321f8cbc43f3e67.pngimage.thumb.png.8785a2ee2e390ed0d6d6598b555a9606.png

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3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

6z GFS still hanging with the Miller A-type setup.  However not showing a gigantic HECS. :lol:

As an obs - looks like the wind blew away whatever dusted things last night.

I eventually had a high of 29 yesterday with a low of 21 and it's currently 20 and clear, with dp 12.

floop-gfs-6z-2025010706.prateptype_cat-imp.conus-01072025.gif

floop-gfs-6z-snow-2025010706.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01072025.gif

floop-gfs-6z-snow-kuchera-2025010706.snku_acc-imp.us_ne-01072025.gif

Seems like the trend so far this winter, take the lowest expected snowfall and go with it. Another 1-3 to refresh my 1.5 on the ground I take.

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Startng to look like the Euro for the win? 
Yea I think the writing was on the wall with this one. GFS has been pretty bad, so I really tried to temper expectations until Dr. NO came aboard. Of course that didn't happen so it wasn't a far fall back to reality for me lol.

Nevertheless, if we can squeeze a 2-4" event out of this, I'm happy.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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32 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Yea I think the writing was on the wall with this one. GFS has been pretty bad, so I really tried to temper expectations until Dr. NO came aboard. Of course that didn't happen so it wasn't a far fall back to reality for me lol.

Nevertheless, if we can squeeze a 2-4" event out of this, I'm happy.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

Im not totally giving up hope just yet still a few days to sort things out. but yeah tempering expectations is theme so far this winter.

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24 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

All 12z models except the UKMET and Canadian have a 1-3” or 2-4” event on Saturday. Big storm is still on the table but not really looking likely.

I think folks forget where we live....big storms are somewhat rare - except for the 1st 16 years of this century. I am convinced those snowy seasons made for many unrealistic expectations. That said if we get a general 2" to 4" event this weekend many will be near to above normal snowfall for the season....

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Bottomed out at 18 around 1:30 am and didn't expect it to warm up that much but it actually has.  Currently 30 with dp 16 and stuff facing the S/SW is melting.

The 12z EC seems to have moved towards the GFS up-the-coast and not completely OTS thought.  Doesn't throw much snow back our way but it was an interesting shift.

floop-ecmwf_full-12z-2025010712.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus-01072025.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-12z-snow-2025010712.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01072025.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-12z-kuchera-snow-2025010712.snku_acc-imp.us_ne-01072025.gif

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12 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I think folks forget where we live....big storms are somewhat rare - except for the 1st 16 years of this century. I am convinced those snowy seasons made for many unrealistic expectations. That said if we get a general 2" to 4" event this weekend many will be near to above normal snowfall for the season....

This^^^^^ I is so true growing up I remember the 2-4,4-8 type storms were quite common, 93, 96 were all anomalies one in a hundred year storms for a reason I know we’ve had a couple since then but not to that extent. So I welcome any snow that falls especially with the BN temps to keep it around longer than a day 

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21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I think folks forget where we live....big storms are somewhat rare - except for the 1st 16 years of this century. I am convinced those snowy seasons made for many unrealistic expectations. That said if we get a general 2" to 4" event this weekend many will be near to above normal snowfall for the season....

This! People forget the "H" in HECS stands for "historic". There's a reason those storms are labeled historic...because they don't happen very often!! 

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

This^^^^^ I is so true growing up I remember the 2-4,4-8 type storms were quite common, 93, 96 were all anomalies one in a hundred year storms for a reason I know we’ve had a couple since then but not to that extent. So I welcome any snow that falls especially with the BN temps to keep it around longer than a day 

I would be happy with a handful of 3-6, or 4-8 inch storms throughout the year rather than one massive storm and call it a wonderful winter snow wise.  Just seems lately we want to go big or go home cause those moderate boarderline SECS storms aren't as frequent.  2021 was a great year in that regard. 

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45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Euro is a light snow all day Saturday event 1-2"

Hopefully a big storm in February

 

Hell I am even pissed. Its going to snow in Memphis for a 4+ inches warning event   and we get jack shite here. These confluence driven winds are killing us literally.  I have never seen 3-4 days of blustery winds in a row here in the forecast. To make matters worse, it is cold and dry. The snow on my driveway is literally melting in the sunshine and immediately evaporating away with the dry winds  in front of my eyes. Do not even have to use a shovel or salt, just a broom.  How bad is this scenario?  The salt  in the parking lots  and driveways are still crystallized and have not turned into brine, thus dragging the salt into all of the buildings/ stores  and houses.  Have not seen this in many years.  I am shocked business have not said much as cleaning companies for carpet and hardwood floors are going to have a banner spring. Thats how dam dry it is.

This drought is really becoming an issue again folks. The band aid rains we had after Christmas have done little to nothing to recharge the existing ground water tables and only enabled us to maintain a low stream flow in the non-limestone streams. Now all of these non limestone streams, lakes and ponds are so low, they are freezing up bigtime.  I am telling you all that unless we get a 12+ snow storm in our area, this spring is going to be really bad for irrigating and even fishing, not to mention wells drying up. The drought watches will be extended into the spring for sure.  Worst of all, sinkholes are going to open again in February with the lowering of the groundwater tables. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Hell I am even pissed. Its going to snow in Memphis for a 4+ inches warning event   and we get jack shite here. These confluence driven winds are killing us literally.  I have never seen 3-4 days of blustery winds in a row here in the forecast. To make matters worse, it is cold and dry. The snow on my driveway is literally melting in the sunshine and immediately evaporating away with the dry winds  in front of my eyes. Do not even have to use a shovel or salt, just a broom.  How bad is this scenario?  The salt  in the parking lots  and driveways are still crystallized and have not turned into brine, thus dragging the salt into all of the buildings/ stores  and houses.  Have not seen this in many years.  I am shocked business have not said much as cleaning companies for carpet and hardwood floors are going to have a banner spring. Thats how dam dry it is.

This drought is really becoming an issue again folks. The band aid rains we had after Christmas have done little to nothing to recharge the existing ground water tables and only enabled us to maintain a low stream flow in the non-limestone streams. Now all of these non limestone streams, lakes and ponds are so low, they are freezing up bigtime.  I am telling you all that unless we get a 12+ snow storm in our area, this spring is going to be really bad for irrigating and even fishing, not to mention wells drying up. The drought watches will be extended into the spring for sure.  Worst of all, sinkholes are going to open again in February with the lowering of the groundwater tables. 

 

I think we all feel your frustration to some extent, seems we've found everyway to fail at snow the last few winters. We still have a ways to go though so hopefully we can score here as this pattern breaks down, Cold and dry doesn't work well with me either.  

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42 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

I would be happy with a handful of 3-6, or 4-8 inch storms throughout the year rather than one massive storm and call it a wonderful winter snow wise.  Just seems lately we want to go big or go home cause those moderate boarderline SECS storms aren't as frequent.  2021 was a great year in that regard.

I agree completely. I don't need big storms. But hell we can't even get a three, four inch storm these days.. we are literally posting measurements in the one or two inch range. So sad..

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I came into this winter expecting a ratter, so I'm happy with any snow we get. I remember January 2003 being very cold and dry -- maybe a clipper or two, but I remember driving to work each morning seeing the bare ground and thinking we're wasting all this cold. Then Feb hit.

Yeah I know, 2002-03 was a Nino winter. But as others have said, I think we can nickel & dime our way to average this year. Patience! 

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14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I came into this winter expecting a ratter, so I'm happy with any snow we get. I remember January 2003 being very cold and dry -- maybe a clipper or two, but I remember driving to work each morning seeing the bare ground and thinking we're wasting all this cold. Then Feb hit.

Yeah I know, 2002-03 was a Nino winter. But as others have said, I think we can nickel & dime our way to average this year. Patience! 

Guns n' roses Patience I can jam not winter snowfall.... We just can't seem to get a good snowfall... Damn it!!!

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