Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 07:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:06 PM 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s more about the pesky N/S lobe that is off the coast of Alaska currently. Goofus had that diving into the trough by 72-84 hours. CMC is partially there, euro not even close. Let’s face reality if it was other way around we’d be feeling a lot better . I posted in the other sub, comes down to strength if the nao block which helps force that lobe under and also the ridge out west....gfs mainati s it which allows for the dig.....other guidance rolls the ridge over. And that could pose a whole nother issue with the overall North Amercia pattern as we head into to next week. Hoping the gfs is correct for several reasons here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:09 PM 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Missing our window time is ticking away as the se ridge pattern comes back And if other guidance is onto anything, our nao decIdes to do a full linkup with said ser. That would put a damper on things in a hurry. Maybe those late Jan and Feb Nina forecasts verify? But with that said, the epo isn't going anywhere, so IF we can keep the ser a separate entity....all these southern sliding systems then suddenly have a chance to be farther n. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Monday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:15 PM Yeah that’s why I said in the other thread we really need to reel in this weekend and that the GFS is onto something if this winter has any hopes of being above average imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Monday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:19 PM all this 12Z GFS run tells me that a snow event will happen. that is likely more than 6 inches if everything lines up perfectly. Its a dam shame that even a basic dying La Nina pattern storm has to be considered a thread the needle storm event as these LP's are constantly going progressive coming across the country. A good kicker would really help this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM With the 2.5" of snow "so far" today here in East Nantmeal Twp. We are now up to 3.0" for the month of January which is 2.1" above normal through today. For the season to date, we stand at 5.8" which is 79% of our normal snowfall to date of 7.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:30 PM 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah that’s why I said in the other thread we really need to reel in this weekend and that the GFS is onto something if this winter has any hopes of being above average imo Lotta game left to play. At least IMBY, best snows don't happen until Feb / Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Monday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:41 PM 2 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: Lotta game left to play. At least IMBY, best snows don't happen until Feb / Mar. the great winters tip their hands usually early. Not saying we can’t get to normal but remarkable comeback great seasons like 17-18 are far and few between. I’ll be pretty surprised if we don’t see a sustained above normal period this winter and the pattern on the other models is how we’d roll into it imo. Overall largely striking out during our favorable period when we only see two maybe three favorable periods if we are lucky in a winter would just not be a good sign just my opinion. If we reel in this weekend with a nice 6-12” storm well then most will be well above normal on the year and we won’t be as reliant on the next favorable period to get to above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Wild to see the ensembles be so different at 120 hours. Lotta ball game left to go. EPS GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted Monday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:57 PM I posted this on Christmas Eve: MIller A potentials setting up by mid January. For the first time in 5+ years, I see GOM lows forming off the SE Texas coast in the LR modeling. The 4 corner lows are dipping down into Mexico , going west into the GOM and sucking up the moisture from the GOM, then heading NE. Hope this pattern keeps up. Rule of thumb for the newbies- If it snows in Memphis/Dallas, we usually get 6+ in of snow here. With the lows forming and deepening in Southern MS, we stand a good chance of seeing this scenario unfold. December 24, 2024 This pro thinks a lot like me. The Euro tends to hold back the LP in the Gulf of California way too long. I believe it does this as a clear bias too as I believe it is waiting for the ocean buoy data to catch up to land mass data too while running the model. This pro has been around to know Dr Sobel and others who I also followed while earning my physical geography/atmospheric concentration degree in the early 80's. Notice , he emphasizes the Dallas to Memphis setup in his video as well. This comes from knowing historical weather pattern setups for major eastern winter storms and just not relying on individual model runs. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Monday at 08:02 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:02 PM 8 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: Wild to see the ensembles be so different at 120 hours. Lotta ball game left to go. EPS GEFS EPS with a low in the lakes...seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:28 PM ICON much better than their 12Z run. Looks slightly better than 12Z CMC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron1660 Posted Monday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:40 PM The key per Bernie Rayno's latest video is getting that northern piece of energy to dive down into the ejected energy from the Southwest. The ICON is certainly showing that now as is the first 93 hours of the UKMET currently being run. Still not there yet on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:42 PM 13 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: ICON much better than their 12Z run. Looks slightly better than 12Z CMC run. You are not kidding. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:56 PM I am returning to the Americanwx forums from a while away so unsure if anyone does this or how its handled but are we planning on opening a discussion page for the upcoming storm? I am a refugee from the wxdisco pages but didn't want to assume things run the same here as they did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:01 PM 18z GFS looks juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted Monday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:06 PM GFS looks like it'll be just a bit more tucked than 12z, unless the kicker behind it does it's part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted Monday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:09 PM 12 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said: I am returning to the Americanwx forums from a while away so unsure if anyone does this or how its handled but are we planning on opening a discussion page for the upcoming storm? I am a refugee from the wxdisco pages but didn't want to assume things run the same here as they did there. We don’t typically open storm threads until multiple models have the threat and it’s inside 84 hours. They are a bit of a curse outside that time frame so we just keep general winter discussion in here until a threat becomes more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Monday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:12 PM Still there on GFS. Please kick out East more thanks lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:13 PM 18z holds its course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:33 PM LOL the 18z GFS is doubling down on a storm buzz-sawing its way up the coast. As an obs - there are some more returns coming in with a mini-round 2 and yes, something is falling from the sky - very light, just above random flurry level. Not sure how much additional accumulation I will get but we'll see. Currently 28 and SN- with dp 25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:36 PM Still a beautiful run with the 18Z. Not a nuke like 12Z, but we still get laid down with a HECS we would all be happy with. I do notice a thermal issue perhaps? CMC and ICON are in the neighborhood looking for the street to turn on for the GFS house party. See what the Euro does here as well as the Ensembles. I'll miss the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Monday at 10:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:42 PM 28f humidity 85% dp 24 light steady snow has begun! Part 2 underway! under over 1.8” lol We are so focused on 5 days that we fail to see what’s right in front of us! This has been happening since New Year Eve thunderstorms with hail! I’m enjoying the winter of 2024-2025 so far! let me get the shovel ready again! Who cares about Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:50 PM 12 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Still a beautiful run with the 18Z. Not a nuke like 12Z, but we still get laid down with a HECS we would all be happy with. I do notice a thermal issue perhaps? CMC and ICON are in the neighborhood looking for the street to turn on for the GFS house party. See what the Euro does here as well as the Ensembles. I'll miss the Euro tonight. The ICON doesn't go out as far as the GFS but the 18z does have the "crawl up the coast" look. Last frame below - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 12:28 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:28 AM 18z euro not biting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted yesterday at 12:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:34 AM 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z euro not biting It does have some snow....but only about an inch.....baby steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted yesterday at 12:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:36 AM 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z euro not biting Any progress steps at least? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted yesterday at 12:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:36 AM 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z euro not biting Then it actually is “biting”‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM The EPS though taken a few baby nibbles so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted yesterday at 05:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 05:41 AM Looks like another big 1.2-2.2" event Saturday after the 0z runs. Even higher totals near the coast. Buckle up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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