mattinpa Posted Monday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 AM 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Canadian mirrors the GFS. Not sure it will be able to get too far N based on 500mb before exiting stage right. There is a kicker right on it's heels on both models. That's a classic Mid Atl MECS look imo. But we will track. Slight differences in when it closes off and orientation mean a lot of difference with the totals. We probably won’t know for a while. But good to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Monday at 10:20 AM Share Posted Monday at 10:20 AM Suppression Depression might be the theme of the season around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 11:16 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:16 AM Made it up to 31 yesterday with a low of 22. Currently 27, overcast with virga (as the precip shield begins to overspread the city) and with a dp of 16. 6Z GFS has a Miller A-like setup that apparently "misses" throwing any measurable back over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:09 PM Looks like all the 06 runs scrape it off the VA coast. Light hit for this forum at best. Onto the 12z. My weenie eye looks like the ensembles backed off it a touch as well. I think its there just need a lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted Monday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:14 PM 57 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Made it up to 31 yesterday with a low of 22. Currently 27, overcast with virga (as the precip shield begins to overspread the city) and with a dp of 16. 6Z GFS has a Miller A-like setup that apparently "misses" throwing any measurable back over the area. I guess 6 days out this is right where we want it, if it showed a direct hit I’d be worried 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted Monday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:05 PM 48 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I guess 6 days out this is right where we want it, if it showed a direct hit I’d be worried At this window, the run-to-run trend over the last 4 runs is an encouraging one with respect to GEFS 24 hr precip by about 06z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:12 PM The 6z EC doesn't go out as far as the GFS and has the same GOM Miller A-type thing, but then suppresses the storm, and takes right OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Monday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:11 PM 12z GFS says she’s bacccckkkkkkk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted Monday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:17 PM This needs to be framed for when it disappears 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted Monday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:18 PM 12z GFS says she’s bacccckkkkkkkLove to see it but the GFS needs some back up. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 04:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:19 PM I wish I could buy the GFS but I just don’t. It’s possible but we need everything to come together perfectly. While there’s a chance it’s not a very good one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Just measured 1.5" on my back deck. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM 4 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Love to see it but the GFS needs some back up. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk CMC shows it just not a nuclear strike the GFS has for us. A decent hit though. But looks like its cut off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:31 PM CMC shows it just not a nuclear strike the GFS has for us. A decent hit though. But looks like its cut off. Yea its there. Almost gets its act together but goes neg tilt and closes off too late for us. Would love a Euro bomb here soon. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM 18 minutes ago, Duca892 said: This needs to be framed for when it disappears You mean like in 6 hours?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM If the Euro can get in the neighborhood of what GFS and CMC are showing, we track... hard. Euro AI was right there at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:58 PM 32 minutes ago, Duca892 said: This needs to be framed for when it disappears That's a coastal hugger that would throw "warm" ocean water air back over the area. That 12z GFS does send it up to NE this time, and has it bomb out on the way up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:03 PM The 12z Ukie does what the EC did but has it go OTS even further south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 PM 3 hours ago, Zeus said: At this window, the run-to-run trend over the last 4 runs is an encouraging one with respect to GEFS 24 hr precip by about 06z Sunday. And it continues on this run of the ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:05 PM 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That's a coastal hugger that would throw "warm" ocean water air back over the area. That 12z GFS does send it up to NE this time, and has it bomb out on the way up there. Not bad for a coastal hugger, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:08 PM Just now, Denverweather said: Not bad for a coastal hugger, though. It would be a mix/ZR fest! Something like that would theoretically benefit central PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Monday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:22 PM Not putting any stock into the GFS for next weekend. The ECM\UKMET have been owning it and the 12z Ukie has a weak wave off the southeast coast the euro will probably be similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Euro Looks like the southern vort misses the phase and throws it off the NC/VA coast. Ukie does basically the same. I mean it's at the gates outside the neighborhood looking for it's card to get in. We'll have to see who wins out by Friday. Does the Euro cave, or GFS cave? Will the Ukie fall into place? Will the sun go down before it gets dark? These stories and more at 18Z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted Monday at 06:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:13 PM 15 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Euro Looks like the southern vort misses the phase and throws it off the NC/VA coast. Ukie does basically the same. I mean it's at the gates outside the neighborhood looking for it's card to get in. We'll have to see who wins out by Friday. Does the Euro cave, or GFS cave? Will the Ukie fall into place? Will the sun go down before it gets dark? These stories and more at 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewiledcard Posted Monday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:42 PM From what I can tell, the canadian shortwave is one of the biggest differences between the GFS and Euro. Still have a ways to go. Seems like old times. Classic GFS vs. Euro battle ensuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:57 PM Still having a tough time believing the gfs. No real mechanism in place to take this up the coast. General flow around the confluent 50/50 is fast and will tend to keep anything from gaining latitude until well off the coast. See today's system as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:58 PM This is the annual gfs fantasy event where the euro has nothing and the euro ends up being right. I expect a full on cave from the gfs on the 18z or 00z run. Maybe a slight step down, it could be that the cmc is closer to reality. EPS suck so something is fishy with handling of the N/S . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Still having a tough time believing the gfs. No real mechanism in place to take this up the coast. General flow around the confluent 50/50 is fast and will tend to keep anything from gaining latitude until well off the coast. See today's system as an example.It’s more about the pesky N/S lobe that is off the coast of Alaska currently. Goofus had that diving into the trough by 72-84 hours. CMC is partially there, euro not even close. Let’s face reality if it was other way around we’d be feeling a lot better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted Monday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:02 PM 1 hour ago, Thewiledcard said: Not bad for a coastal hugger, though. Wow - it’s not the only time it showed this so a big storm can’t be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:04 PM 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s more about the pesky N/S lobe that is off the coast of Alaska currently. Goofus had that diving into the trough by 72-84 hours. CMC is partially there, euro not even close. Let’s face reality if it was other way around we’d be feeling a lot better . Missing our window time is ticking away as the se ridge pattern comes back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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