LVblizzard Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: The ensemble run of the European has started a slight "trend" back north....below is the 6z run These SWFE type storms trend north more often than not. I think plowable snow gets up to I-78 or I-80 in the end. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Happy New Year! Looks like SE GA gets crushed at 228hrs, so we got that going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Happy New Year! Looks like SE GA gets crushed at 228hrs, so we got that going for us As you noted last week, we might be pulling out the "patience" card rather swiftly it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Hopefully we can cash-in before Larry C's epic thaw call coming week of the 11th 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As you noted last week, we might be pulling out the "patience" card rather swiftly it seems. We lost the ukie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 58 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Happy New Year! Looks like SE GA gets crushed at 228hrs, so we got that going for us The epic alligator snow of 2025 is afoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I know exactly what happened-The pattern is so good it's bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 ECM the lone hold out still gives us a 1-3" car topper event lol DC gets it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 You're never comfortable being in the bullseye five days out, but the Euro has been pretty consistent. Other operationals keep jumping, including that massive shift from the Ukie. What a goof. Maybe a north trend still occurs as projected confluence weakens. I think the best chance here is probably after, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I think being in the bullseye this far out is dangerous, at least for us it is. Plenty of time to go I think tomorrow we start to see guidance get better sampling, or could just be wishful thinking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I think being in the bullseye this far out is dangerous, at least for us it is. Plenty of time to go I think tomorrow we start to see guidance get better sampling, or could just be wishful thinking. I think by 12z Friday we will know for sure where the bullseye will set up. Then it's just tweaking from there on out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This feels like a VA event. There’s some decent agreement forming. We’ll see some tics from here on out but i highly doubt we’re in the max stripe. That’s going to be somewhere in VA. What sucks is it’s looking dry beyond this. Wave on the 10th looks too progressive at this stage . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: This feels like a VA event. There’s some decent agreement forming. We’ll see some tics from here on out but i highly doubt we’re in the max stripe. That’s going to be somewhere in VA. What sucks is it’s looking dry beyond this. Wave on the 10th looks too progressive at this stage . The wave for the 10th is for the Deep South. We might be cooked up here until 2nd half of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 SOLAR STORM ALEET!! Aurora to Mexico? G4 storm we have hit KP8! Really need the clear forecast for tonight to happen like now, best viewing would be at dark and depending where the levels fluctuate from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 21 minutes ago, RedSky said: SOLAR STORM ALEET!! Aurora to Mexico? G4 storm we have hit KP8! Really need the clear forecast for tonight to happen like now, best viewing would be at dark and depending where the levels fluctuate from here. Not seeing info on this anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 KP9 level hit at 1800GMT wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not seeing info on this anywhere https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Firts of all, as I stated yesterday, tomorrow nights Oz run will tell us what we will get. The Pac buoy data will be ingested and will show us how much moisture streams NE. Right now it looks like zippo- just like the other crap we have had in December- cross your fingers that the ealier Euro runs hold 3-5 days ago. Noy good for ending the drought thats for sure Yes Red Sky is spot on- time if the sky clears out, Aurora time. You all should check this site veryday. Flares do affect us https://spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 KP dropped to 6.6 damn Aurora's are like snow storms around here very fickle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 KP may spike back impossible to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The 18Z run sucked. Keeps it south and we get 1-2 inches at best. It does look like it comes in faster which I think would help for the 11th storm but then that one shoves off the GA coast and never turns north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Not observing any aurora at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 FWIW fantasy land does bring a monster up the coast and misses by about 150 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z euro is a hit for Philly 1/6 big jump n 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This might be the start of the predictable N trend with these types of systems. We'll see I guess. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 LC backpedalled from his earlier epic pattern reversal and big thaw during week of Jan 11. Now suggests a slight relax for a period while the pattern reloads and sets up a return to intense winter weather late January and early February. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This might be the start of the predictable N trend with these types of systems. We'll see I guess. Eps also north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps also north Time to start reeling this one in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This might be the start of the predictable N trend with these types of systems. We'll see I guess. I hope so I thought tomorrow we would start to se the guidance correcting some but I would suspect the north jog will commence, let the Euro lead the way. I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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