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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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5 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I was around for that one, Christmas Eve was on Saturday. I remember Herb Clarke on the Monday before saying "it could be Katy bar the door", lol. Started around 7 am, heard my first thundersnow in the afternoon, measured 20" around 7 pm. Best Christmas ever!

Didn't know you were that ancient lol. That was the all timer you Lucky dog.

 

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4 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

However, my Christmas thoughts are that this could still move easily to the Ralph let's have patience speech if nothing is showing up by this Friday.

Even if it proves to be a decent winter, there are always points therein where we need patience. Pattern could be ripe as we've seen  before but we don't get hit until it relaxes. Good vibes this year tho...we got this.

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24 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Kamu and I are retirement home buddies…First snow that I vividly recall, though I thought there was another biggy on Christmas Eve a few years earlier (1962, 1963, 1964?)‼️

Dec. 11th 1960 was no slacker. Sunday afternoon and night, Wizard of Oz was on and I kept going to the window to make sure it was still heavy snow, lol. Got about a foot, no school Monday!

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30 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Kamu and I are retirement home buddies…First snow that I vividly recall, though I thought there was another biggy on Christmas Eve a few years earlier (1962, 1963, 1964?)‼️

I do vaguely remember one at Christmas in that period, it had snowed around 4 to 6 inches, let up, and it seemed to be winding down. Then it snowed another 9 inches!

I also remember hammering nails in the front wheel of my youngest brother's Christmas tricycle, for better traction. We were ahead of our time, lolol. (Wasn't the smoothest ride).

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1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Soo..... what happened to Mostly Sunny high 38 today???  Got the temp right but the sun hasn't made an appearance at any point today.  Sounds like a pretty blown forecast at very short leads.  Must be an inversion layer those are always pains to forecasts. 

A positive bust I think most like the cloudy Christmas

 

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As has been the trend for much of December we will see below normal temperatures today and tomorrow. However, by Saturday we start a warming trend that will peak on Sunday before we start a gradual chill down as we move into the New Year. If you like sun this afternoon and tomorrow look like the last sunshine of 2024. Rain chances increase late Friday night and will continue into New Year's Day. There may be a little freezing rain or drizzle tomorrow night across the higher spots of NW Chester and SE Berks counties. Rain totals by New Year's day may be between 1.5" to 2.0"

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On 12/24/2024 at 9:56 AM, Albedoman said:

MIller A potentials setting up by mid January. For the first time  in 5+ years, I see GOM lows forming off the SE Texas coast in the LR modeling. The 4 corner lows are dipping down into Mexico , going west into the GOM  and sucking up the moisture from the GOM, then heading NE.  Hope this pattern keeps up.  Rule of thumb for the newbies- If it snows in Memphis/Dallas, we usually get 6+ in of snow here. With the lows  forming and deepening in Southern MS, we stand a good chance of seeing this scenrio unfold. Lets hope  that the CAD situation like 94 does not come a problem if a portion of the Vortex breaks off and hits first. I would love to see a  +PNA and at the same time the GOM lows start producing, then the potential for major snow events increases exponentially.

Yes, this morning is a local traffic nighmare. The salters came by, did not even melt the residential roads.  Hopefully when the sun comes out in a few hours, things will change. Red Sky, I am glad you got your white christmas. Never give up.   I went over the Green Lane reservoir yesterday, I was sick to see how far it is down right now. The drought lives on.  What water remains is frozen, thus no runoff storage possible from any rains after Christmas. The soil is like concrete right now.  We really need a 3 inch rain with 50 degree temps after the  New Year before the next major snow event. 

Hey guys, look at this evenings 18Z GFS run.  Looks like Dallas to Memphis gets some snow in week or so and oh wait 6 in + for us too. Now where did I hear that scenario before? LOL 

 

I love the memphis discussion below  for tonight.  It is a dream forecast for me  to hear booming t- storms at Christmas  Hell , we could not even squeeze out one decent t- storm here all  last summer with any booming thunder and they get it in the winter. What slap in the face for us.

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Shortwave ridging across the region has allowed mostly dry
conditions across the area today. These dry conditions will be short
lived as a low pressure system will return showers and thunderstorms
later this evening. Depicted on deterministic soundings, a steep
inversion will be over the Mid-South this evening. This inversion
will keep the gusty winds from mixing to the surface as well as
limit surface based instability. A maritime tropical airmass has
struggled to move over the region with this inversion as dewpoint
depressions are still around 10 degrees or more at this hour. The
severe weather threat tonight is very marginal at best. The thunder,
however, will be intensified due to the inversion, so prepare for
loud thunder to awake you overnight. While the severe threat is
limited, heavy rain is still a concern. Precipitable water (PW)
values will be in the 90th percentile (around 1.3") for this time of
year. Highest rainfall totals will be along and west of the
Mississippi River hovering around 2".

 

 

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Interesting to absolutely nobody but me, our forecast temps were supposed to hit 39°F today, but only barely reached 33. We were also forecasted sunshine from 10am until sunset, but the sun only finally peaked out around 3pm.

I, for one, was happy to have a mostly cloudy day, as I love these kinds of days. And we still have the odd patch of snow on the ground from a couple days ago. Happy boxing day, everyone.

I'm interested to see how tomorrow goes.

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Duca892 I will take it down another level lol:

 

Last night's low 22f here currently 35f (kiss those Temps goodbye down here on the west side of the Delaware River)

Looking forward to warm and wet incoming maybe a bit of freezing rain to the NNE of us later tonight very early tomorrow hence the winter weather advisories up there.

I am looking forward to some much-needed rain again to attempt to fill the reservoirs but very warm.

It is even possible to see a rare December thunderstorm on Sunday during the Eagles Game.

Sorry Duca892 for the rest of December it 100% is sh_t the blinds time.

As for January the only thing that can be said is we get cold over time but look on the bright side we have had 1.58" of snow at least down here others more others less so we are still doing better than last year.  I do believe we see normal snowfall this year or at least I hope we do for Drought's sake.

I still do hold hope for January certainly not dead yet and it does believe it or not at least to me have a normal feel to it honestly dating back many years to the 70's and 80's.

I do think we get snowed on in January I will go with 8-14".

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Yesterday was our 6th below freezing high temperature of the month. This is the most sub-freezing December days here in East Nantmeal since back in 2017 when we had 10 such days.
Today should be our last below normal day till next year! Before we warm up we will get a little wet. We will need to watch temperatures overnight tonight as we could see some spotty freezing drizzle or rain over the higher spots in NW Chester and SE Berks Counties before temperatures rise. It looks pretty wet between now and New Year’s Day with as much as 1.50” of rain before midnight New Year’s Eve. We will turn much colder again by later next week.

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