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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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10 hours ago, JTA66 said:

We’ll see where things stand after the New Year. But you may want to dust off the “Wiggum Patience Speech” just in case.

I have a feeling you are right.

We have been down this road of unicorn patterns at day 12+ repeatedly past 8-10 years. Many never panned out and several that did we ended with nothing to show. I'm cautiously optimistic. Certainly not buying into the 2014. 2009,and Jan 1996 talk going on. 

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have a feeling you are right.

We have been down this road of unicorn patterns at day 12+ repeatedly past 8-10 years. Many never panned out and several that did we ended with nothing to show. I'm cautiously optimistic. Certainly not buying into the 2014. 2009,and Jan 1996 talk going on. 

We got the next two weeks of roller coaster temps, then we can begin to look at the long range. 

 

The question is do we "buckle up"?

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This morning was our coldest readings since last January 17th with temperatures dropping to as low as 8.8 degrees at Nottingham and 9.8 degrees at Warwick Park. Today will be about 20 degrees below our normal high temperatures in the low to mid 40's. More spots tonight may drop into the single digits for low temperatures. Well below normal again tomorrow before we moderate back to close to normal for the remainder of 2024. There is a chance of a little snow toward Christmas Eve morning and again by Friday night.

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5 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

0z meso models looking juicier for Tuesday north of Philly. Lots of them showing over an inch in the Lehigh Valley now.

 

2 hours ago, RedSky said:

ECM coating to an inch on Tuesday

 

Awesome! That's enough to give me a snow day at work. I haul permitted, overweight loads, and we can't legally run if there's snow on the roads.

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I will be the first to say that if you are traveling Tuesday morning anywhere  in the LV, please wait. Mt Holly has  stated no advisories will be necessary issued  as it does not meet the criteria( LOL)  but they will be criticized come Tuesday morning as a potential 1-2 in snowfall will be a  traveling disaster. Why?  The roads will be so cold that any snow that falls will imediatley stick.   A simple  one inch snow on frozen road surfaces where salt will not work is way worse  than a 3-4 in snow on warm roads with brine/salt like this past event. Brine will not work and placing salt down will not work. Drivers are also  not used to driving on coated and extemely cold road surfaces and accidents will be everywhere.  I urge Mt Holly to rethink this situation.  A MIllion people now live in the LV  where  the freight capital of the US exists with the thousands of trucks running through the area.  Salt does not work below 20 degrees on road surfaces.  Its been over four days of temps  below 32 degrees and with temps below 20 degrees for 2-3 days. Todays high will be in the low to mid 20's and the overnight lows tonight will be in the upper teens. After becoming cloudy by this afternnon, no chance of the road temps going up.  You make your own choice but for me, I am staying off the roads until the sun comes out on Tuesday afternoon. These are the silly games of meeting criteria for advisories that NOAA needs to wake up on.  Temps do matter regardless of the amount of snowfall. Case closed.

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

I will be the first to say that if you are traveling Tuesday morning anywhere  in the LV, please wait. Mt Holly has  stated no advisories will be necessary issued  as it does not meet the criteria( LOL)  but they will be criticized come Tuesday morning as a potential 1-2 in snowfall will be a  traveling disaster. Why?  The roads will be so cold that any snow that falls will imediatley stick.   A simple  one inch snow on frozen road surfaces where salt will not work is way worse  than a 3-4 in snow on warm roads with brine/salt like this past event. Brine will not work and placing salt down will not work. Drivers are also  not used to driving on coated and extemely cold road surfaces and accidents will be everywhere.  I urge Mt Holly to rethink this situation.  A MIllion people now live in the LV  where  the freight capital of the US exists with the thousands of trucks running through the area.  Salt does not work below 20 degrees on road surfaces.  Its been over four days of temps  below 32 degrees and with temps below 20 degrees for 2-3 days. Todays high will be in the low to mid 20's and the overnight lows tonight will be in the upper teens. After becoming cloudy by this afternnon, no chance of the road temps going up.  You make your own choice but for me, I am staying off the roads until the sun comes out on Tuesday afternoon. These are the silly games of meeting criteria for advisories that NOAA needs to wake up on.  Temps do matter regardless of the amount of snowfall. Case closed.


 

There was also no WWA for Friday. 2-4” fell across the area.

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Clear currently 9f last night's low was 8.0f.  It's only going up up up from here.  However, before we go up could be trouble tomorrow morning between 7:00 am to 10:00 am with snow, sleet, some freezing rain looking at models it should remain below freezing entire area for this very light event.  There is limited moisture for the system to work with as it is basically a weak cold front that will come through then lay stationary to our south to become our warm front to allow warming to take place over the course of next week. Looks like the moisture sleet and freezing rain opportunities are in the advisory areas shaded in purple.  I am guessing that the areas to the north are not in advisories because mainly very light snow will fall with not much sleet and freezing rain and should just blow off the roads?  I suppose they will make adjustments today as needed. 

 

Map of Forecast Area

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