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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion


JTA66
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We picked up 0.77" of rain here in East Nantmeal with most spots picking up between 0.65" to 0.95" of rain across Chester County. We get a brief break in the rain today before rain arrives again later this evening. We could see another 0.25" to 0.50" of rain tonight. The sun returns and warmer tomorrow before we start a cooling trend that will lead to our coldest weather so far this season by the weekend. Rain chances again on Wednesday PM and maybe a little snow by Friday afternoon and evening before we turn sharply colder over the weekend.

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Well it now appears Christmas day will be brown. NO major snow event anywhere on the models for our area for and after Christmas and in fact after Christmas we get torched. Rain I will take but this crap of having  freeze your balls off temps with no snow pack is utterly ridiculous. So many years of this stupid weather pattern is got to end soon. The snow producing storm events never  matches up with the deep cold anymore as the deep cold air sticks around only for a few days . We are always on the frozen/liqid  precip line too as a result.   If we would have had a decent snowpack this weekend, we would have been  below zero for overnight lows. I aslo do not know which is worse, the snow drought or rain drought? LOL  I am sorry but with my 50+ years of weather history  experience, I am realizing that  the only way to break this shitty snow producing weather pattern will be a severe ice storm with a real deep and strong cold snap from repeated passing clippers  every 2-3 days- kinda like 94. LOL. 

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26 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Well it now appears Christmas day will be brown. NO major snow event anywhere on the models for our area for and after Christmas and in fact after Christmas we get torched. Rain I will take but this crap of having  freeze your balls off temps with no snow pack is utterly ridiculous. So many years of this stupid weather pattern is got to end soon. The snow producing storm events never  matches up with the deep cold anymore as the deep cold air sticks around only for a few days . We are always on the frozen/liqid  precip line too as a result.   If we would have had a decent snowpack this weekend, we would have been  below zero for overnight lows. I aslo do not know which is worse, the snow drought or rain drought? LOL  I am sorry but with my 50+ years of weather history  experience, I am realizing that  the only way to break this shitty snow producing weather pattern will be a severe ice storm with a real deep and strong cold snap from repeated passing clippers  every 2-3 days- kinda like 94. LOL. 

1994 was probably the worst winter I ever experienced. I'll never forget  19 degrees and heavy rain. LOL  Skating rinks for weeks.  I remember seeing the salt trucks going backwards for miles cause they had no traction to drive forward to lay salt down. 

 

One good thing was my Dad worked for the electric company. Our power was only off for a few hours, and we had a pretty nice vacation that summer. lol. 

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50 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Well it now appears Christmas day will be brown. NO major snow event anywhere on the models for our area for and after Christmas and in fact after Christmas we get torched. Rain I will take but this crap of having  freeze your balls off temps with no snow pack is utterly ridiculous. So many years of this stupid weather pattern is got to end soon. The snow producing storm events never  matches up with the deep cold anymore as the deep cold air sticks around only for a few days . We are always on the frozen/liqid  precip line too as a result.   If we would have had a decent snowpack this weekend, we would have been  below zero for overnight lows. I aslo do not know which is worse, the snow drought or rain drought? LOL  I am sorry but with my 50+ years of weather history  experience, I am realizing that  the only way to break this shitty snow producing weather pattern will be a severe ice storm with a real deep and strong cold snap from repeated passing clippers  every 2-3 days- kinda like 94. LOL. 

One major factor is the -PDO....been negative phase since 2016ish. If we can ever get that to flip to positive for a bit I have a feeling that will impact our wintry weather for the better. No end in sight for that according to the PDO outlooks.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One major factor is the -PDO....been negative phase since 2016ish. If we can ever get that to flip to positive for a bit I have a feeling that will impact our wintry weather for the better. No end in sight for that according to the PDO outlooks.

I'd argue we've been in a secular -PDO phase since mid-1998. The +PDO phase in the mid-2010s was a cyclical one, which pretty much coincided with the 2014-16 el nino. Other than that, we've been -PDO most of the time for the past 25+ years.

My guess is that we'll flip to a secular +PDO state with the next el nino, either in 2026-27 or 2027-28. The last time we flipped from secular -PDO to secular +PDO was in mid-1976, and we got a nice stretch of winters that followed.

1949-1976 -PDO

1976-1998 +PDO

1998-present -PDO

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Think I got this figured out. This is like a climate change warmed version of December 89

Allentown is -4.5F and .30" snow through mid month vs -12F in 1989 with 4.5" snow

 

 

Not really, 1989 turned cold well before December started. This year was very warm in November. It reminds me more of 2005 or 2020. Both years were colder than average and snowy in February. December 2005 and December 2020 were +PNA, like this December.

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1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not really, 1989 turned cold well before December started. This year was very warm in November. It reminds me more of 2005 or 2020. Both years were colder than average and snowy in February. December 2005 and December 2020 were +PNA, like this December.

If it's like 2005 warmed looking forward to some 75F days with thunderstorms in January

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11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One major factor is the -PDO....been negative phase since 2016ish. If we can ever get that to flip to positive for a bit I have a feeling that will impact our wintry weather for the better. No end in sight for that according to the PDO outlooks.

So.... The PDO is broken then what the hell!!!

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8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

0z models looking slightly intriguing for Friday night. Probably won't turn into anything plowable/significant but if trends continue we could see a light snow event.

 I will take anything at this point. A 1-3 inch snow event would be a huge win in this crappy season thus far and overnight raditional cooling with a snow cover on Sat morning would push the lows in the single digits for sure over the weekend.

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