Wednesday Dec 11, 2024 1.5-4" rainfall, wind gusts coastal NJ LI CT 50-70MPH 1PM-mIdnight w power outages and Wed afternoon-eve OBS

[Stormlover74]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Some places in W Suffolk have 1” already, they’ll very likely end over 2”. This offshore slug off NJ will probably hit those east of Rt 111. West of there looks like has to wait for the stuff over E PA to come in. So that’s where the sucker hole that might get 1” happens. 

Was always supposed to be heaviest this afternoon. Just that those 2-3" amounts probably won't happen near and west of the city especially along I95

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Some places in W Suffolk have 1” already, they’ll very likely end over 2”. This offshore slug off NJ will probably hit those east of Rt 111. West of there looks like has to wait for the stuff over E PA to come in. So that’s where the sucker hole that might get 1” happens. 

Over 1” in west babylon. Had torrential rain for a bit. 

[the_other_guy]

It was modeled well over a week ago.

 

Guys trying to manufacture a westward movement backing in from coast for a 4 inch rain storm.

 

 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It was modeled well over a week ago.

 

Guys trying to manufacture a westward movement backing in from coast for a 4 inch rain storm.

 

 

The low did trend west. It’s tracking over PA and that’s where the wind threat came in from LLJ east of it. Some places probably will get 4” but probably eastern Suffolk and New England. More rain area wide would’ve been nice though given we’re still in a severe drought. Maybe this offshore convective stuff is robbing from what’ll pivot overhead later. 

[Tatamy]

Winds are starting to crank here as the cold front slowly approaches.  Recent wind gust to 29 mph and I am well inland.  Winds will really start to crank along the coast soon.

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The low did trend west. It’s tracking over PA and that’s where the wind threat came in from LLJ east of it. Some places probably will get 4” but probably eastern Suffolk and New England. More rain area wide would’ve been nice though given we’re still in a severe drought. Maybe this offshore convective stuff is robbing from what’ll pivot overhead later. 

Well get more later. Needs to play out.

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Thankfully looks like maybe a 30-40 mile shift east in strongest 850-925 winds form yesterday.  I think maybe SRN Queens/BKlyn could gust 40-45 for a time 19-21Z but the concern of 50-60 there or even things going to 22-23z looks out now.  Nassau/Suffolk still a problem

[IrishRob17]

mPING appears to be back up and running, I see the reports on RadarScope and was able to just submit a report just now. 

[jm1220]

In Long Beach right now, breezy but no big gusts. Maybe some gusts to 30 or so. 

[winterwx21]

0.40" so far here today. Heavy rain right now. 

[Cyg]

Moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds here in Brick.

[weathermedic]

Only .39 so far at my station in southern Brooklyn.

 

 

[Brian5671]

wind and rain underwhelming here so far-some gusts to 25-30 but not much and mostly calm outside of that...

[guinness77]

Absolutely pouring near Rosedale/St. Albans, Queens. 

[Cfa]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

wind and rain underwhelming here so far-some gusts to 25-30 but not much and mostly calm outside of that...

Winds picked up quite a bit with this line moving in (down here in LI anyways), went from a gentle breeze to fairly windy in minutes.

[weathermedic]

If my Weathertap radar storm motions are accurate, some of the embedded showers/cells are racing northeast at 50-100mph! Definitely some strong winds up there.

[weathermedic]

12:42 pm OKX AFD Update:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For this update only primarily updated winds for the next few
hours as inland and western most locations across NE NJ have
been underachieving thus far with respect to wind speeds.
However, this changes over the next few hours, especially by the
afternoon. Radar shows a dry wedge between the rain activity.
Steadiest rain falls though far eastern areas and far western
areas initially. Eastern CT appears to be the region of primary
concern with respect to excessive rainfall and any flood threat.

 

[SnowGoose69]

FRG gusted to 43kts.  JFK just 35-38kt so far so definite indication strongest winds likely remain just E of Queens/Bklyn.  If FRG is 43 that means coastal areas are probably close to 50kts already

[MANDA]

Skinny "squall line" about ready to push through my area.  Expecting some heavier rain and some gusty winds.

[lee59]

.54 inch of rain so far, peak gust 36mph

[jm1220]

46mph at JFK. Oddly not too windy here. Gusts in the 30s I’d guess. 

[MANDA]

Pouring here with winds gusting to about 25 mph. Rain pelting against the house.

Based on radar it is not going to last long but right now it is heavy.

[bluewave]

Tree down in New Hyde Park.

 

[Poker2015]

We better get some heavier stuff later or it will be tough to even get to 1"

[Brian5671]

from the NE forum-models pushed the big winds east so may not be anything all that notable.      Rain hasn't been all that heavy here today with that big dry slot up to about an inch or so...heaviest line looks to be off the NJ coast right now and headed NE so that will be east as well.

[the_other_guy]

this is like a thread in search of a storm haha. All kidding aside just some light rain here in Westchester every now and then a heavy downpour, but it’s nothing too crazy. Certainly no wind at all.

[psv88]

Winds gusting about 35 here in Suffolk. Definitely windy. 

[Brian5671]

new NAM is well east with most of the remaining precip

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

new NAM is well east with most of the remaining precip

Seems like that offshore stuff is robbing the rest of the area. Although I would think that batch west of DC would make it up here

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like that offshore stuff is robbing the rest of the area. Although I would think that batch west of DC would make it up here

I agree.    Shifted everything including the big winds east