Wednesday Dec 11, 2024 1.5-4" rainfall, wind gusts coastal NJ LI CT 50-70MPH 1PM-mIdnight w power outages and Wed afternoon-eve OBS

[wdrag]

Good Tuesday morning Dec 10 to everyone... I'm hoping patience works for winter snow - NYC metro. In the meantime, a fairly high impact storm is likely with potential for a squall line forming NJ coast into w CT during Wednesday afternoon contributing to downward  transfer of some of the 80KT Southwest Jet. OKX already has High Wind Watch for the primary damaging wind threat area.  I've added a few starter graphics-click for clarity.  Includes base maps of NWS rainfall, wind gusts and also somewhat differing opinions of the Excessive rain potential from the 00z/10 guidance. 

 

One personal note of concern:  Drought monitor and excessive rainfall potential don't seem to be a coherent match but I haven't checked everything regarding the monitor. 8A/10

 

[weathermedic]

From OKX this morning

 

Storm warning for the coastal waters (purple)

[Brian5671]

Sheet drizzle here since about 2pm as warmer air tries to move in....

[wdrag]

Hi everyone... this may be OLD news... but mPing--what I consider an important up the minute crowdsourcing ground truth observation platform is out of service for a while longer. A major power failure Saturday night rendered this lower priority program, a delayed return to service  Unsure when it returns but I do appreciate NSSL letting us know.

Storm looks on track per the mid and day shift NWS office updates and multiple model guidance through 18z/10.  Poconos might have a small snow hazard at the end as temps plummet to freezing at sunset Wednesday. 

Walt

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi everyone... this may be OLD news... but mPing--what I consider an important up the minute crowdsourcing ground truth observation platform is out of service for a while longer. A major power failure Saturday night rendered this lower priority program, a delayed return to service  Unsure when it returns but I do appreciate NSSL letting us know.

Storm looks on track per the mid and day shift NWS office updates and multiple model guidance through 18z/10.  Poconos might have a small snow hazard at the end as temps plummet to freezing at sunset Wednesday. 

Walt

Bummer, I’ve come to use mPING on a regular basis. Thanks for sharing. 

[Rjay]

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Ah yes. The annual December slight risk threat. Can’t get em in July but plentiful December to February 

[wdrag]

00z/11 HRRR teasers.  (4"+ axis in yellow?) and late afternoon squall-line developing--certainly a wind shift via 21z image. 

[It's Always Sunny]

Very rare event for NYC/LI in December. Graphics below show that meridional wind and precipitable water values exceed all climatological values for this time of year. Many spots will fall between 2-3" with amounts in excess of 4-5" definitely in the cards. Daily max precip values will likely be broken (set only last year for most), along with daily max temperature values (set in 2015 for most).

 

 

[It's Always Sunny]

Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible too given mid-level instability, albeit marginal.

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

00z/11 HRRR teasers.  (4"+ axis in yellow?) and late afternoon squall-line developing--certainly a wind shift via 21z image. 

Damage !

[MJO812]

From a high of 65 to a low of 33 tomorrow night. Going to feel brutal.

[Stormlover74]

First downpours getting ready to move through 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

From a high of 65 to a low of 33 tomorrow night. Going to feel brutal.

We've seen much bigger swings. It won't even drop below freezing. 

In the past we had 60s to 15-20F with single digit or colder wind chills. Look at how weak the cool down on Thursday is...most will prob get up to 40F despite very cold conditions aloft. 

[H2Otown_WX]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've seen much bigger swings. It won't even drop below freezing. 

In the past we had 60s to 15-20F with single digit or colder wind chills. Look at how weak the cool down on Thursday is...most will prob get up to 40F despite very cold conditions aloft. 

Yeah what's up with that? I thought I was the only one who noticed that for a given 850 temp we seem to get warmer than we did 20 years ago. I was wondering if it has to do with ozone layer depletion?

[wdrag]

 

Headline basically good: Already as of 4AM spotty 1/2-3/4" amounts NNJ and near NYC.  The 4" if it occurs probably CT or LI

 

My only addition is for those who like snow. A short period of 1/2-2" hazardous snow will follow for the Poconos near or just after sundown today-ending at midnight.Maybe a slightest covering of 1/2" snow high terrain (above 1000 feet) of nw NJ/se NYS/nw CT Hills occuring sometime beteen 7PM-midnight. Warm ground and rainfall today may prevent much road accumulation except am pretty sure it will become hazardous in the Poconos...especially Mt Pocono-Mt Cobb(exit 8 on I84) westward and northward between 7PM and midnight. 

 

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

So far

 

[Brian5671]

Big hole in the precip along the coast...models show it filling in later

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Big hole in the precip along the coast...models show it filling in later

It does look like there'll be a relative sucker zone between the heavier offshore stuff and the area inland where heavy rain trains for a while. 1-2" vs maybe 4".

[wdrag]

Stoneybrook NYS Mesonet on LI about to cross 1". (0.99)

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It does look like there'll be a relative sucker zone between the heavier offshore stuff and the area inland where heavy rain trains for a while. 1-2" vs maybe 4".

6z Euro shows that 

[the_other_guy]

DRY SLOTTED! my favorite with winter rain

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

DRY SLOTTED! my favorite with winter rain

I’m thinking the rain where the dry slot is now does fill in later but that’s where the lower amounts will be that some models have. We have to wait for the main heavy rain area with the low to move east. 1-2” is welcome of course but we need more. And we’ll see what the winds do this afternoon on the coast. Suffolk might get the worst of both worlds with 3”+ and 60 mph gusts. 

[ForestHillWx]

The entire state of NJ is slotted at the moment. Pretty neat looking. 

[Stormlover74]

Some places may struggle to even reach an inch if the hrrr is right

 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some places may struggle to even reach an inch if the hrrr is right

 

That's additional.  Most places have had .5-1.00 already

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

That's additional.  Most places have had .5-1.00 already

.23 at ewr 

[Snowlover11]

thank god this is rain, i’d be in full meltdown mode

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

thank god this is rain, i’d be in full meltdown mode

everyone would be screaming BUST

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

everyone would be screaming BUST

Some places in W Suffolk have 1” already, they’ll very likely end over 2”. This offshore slug off NJ will probably hit those east of Rt 111. West of there looks like has to wait for the stuff over E PA to come in. So that’s where the sucker hole that might get 1” happens.