Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

This run will be garbage. Energy hanging down anoutj and nrn stream isn’t digging.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/14/2024 at 10:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

This run will be garbage. Energy hanging down anoutj and nrn stream isn’t digging.

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Like clockwork....we need to emerge from this nighyly crap/favorable day time oscillation to really take this seriously later this week.

[MJO812]

  On 12/14/2024 at 10:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

This run will be garbage. Energy hanging down anoutj and nrn stream isn’t digging.

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It's way north of 12z. It's also very messy. Onto gefs 

[MJO812]

Having the NAO positive might hurt us. 

[brooklynwx99]

the TPV is farther west which yanks the shortwave east. this has been modeled horribly so not really sure what to make of it

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS actually looks better... trough is sharper

[brooklynwx99]

stronger coastal signal as well. rare to see the GEFS crap on the OP like this, usually it follows lockstep

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah ensembles slightly better than 12z. Hopefully we start seeing some more consensus in the next day or two. 

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 12/14/2024 at 11:00 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS actually looks better... trough is sharper

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What's the implication of the ridge becoming flatter though?

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro for Wednesday night is good here

[brooklynwx99]

EPS has a stronger surface reflection off OBX

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:02 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS has a stronger surface reflection off OBX

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I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

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I’m in believe it when I see it mode. We’ve found every way to fail the last half decade and I’m not seeing much in this setup that screams we are ending that trend 

[George001]

  On 12/15/2024 at 1:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m in believe it when I see it mode. We’ve found every way to fail the last half decade and I’m not seeing much in this setup that screams we are ending that trend 

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It’s a similar setup to Jan 2022. Ensembles have a signal, too far out for OPs so I don’t really care that they aren’t showing a storm.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

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wondering if that's a "fake" mean sorta thing where those are the members that just don't really transfer and just have a clipper

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2024 at 2:43 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

wondering if that's a "fake" mean sorta thing where those are the members that just don't really transfer and just have a clipper

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Yea, could be.....like a binary "one or the other" type of deal...we see that with track sometimes, too.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 1:21 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m in believe it when I see it mode. We’ve found every way to fail the last half decade and I’m not seeing much in this setup that screams we are ending that trend 

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You’re right about finding ways to fail…(although we failed in January 22, and you killed it after moaning), but yes other than that, it’s been tough(although we did great here in CT in Feb 24 with 12+).  Where you’re wrong currently, is the set up synoptically is pretty decent…and thats all you can say at a week out.  

[brooklynwx99]

@Typhoon Tip well, here's the first wave getting completely blown to bits

[MJO812]

The vort is digging alot more than 18z

 

[brooklynwx99]

lol 18z was just a complete blip

[ineedsnow]

look at the difference in Texas lol

[MJO812]

Gfs is very close

[dryslot]

Heights are higher over the the west, Northern stream digging further south, Trough goes negative a bit sooner to and nice tug back NW a bit late but looks good CNE/NNE, Closed contour over NY at H5.

[MJO812]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:19 AM, dryslot said:

Heights are higher over the the west, Northern stream digging further south, Trough goes negative a bit sooner to and nice tug back NW a bit late but looks good CNE/NNE.

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Yep Maine gets hits hard

[ineedsnow]

even gets 3 to 6 here

[Typhoon Tip]

This is just about where we want this to look like at 168 hrs

 

[cleetussnow]

I saw a miller b.  Good news

[dryslot]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:23 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is just about where we want this to look like at 168 hrs

 

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Yes, Its potentially there, But lets get the next several cycles to show similar and off we go.

[MJO812]

Cmc much further south than gfs

[dryslot]

Not very many Miller B's that i would hate.